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主题:大萧条以来最严重经济危机,道指会跌到9100? -- 倥偬飞人

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  • 家园 大萧条以来最严重经济危机,道指会跌到9100?

    以下文章是对冲基金经理人Jim Melcher对美国经济和股市的看法,他认为目前股市的风险很大,还在很大程度上没有反应到股价中,很多股票都可能价格被腰斩,道指会下跌20%-30%到9100-10400点,而且全世界的股票市场都会下跌。他认为黄金是避难所,甚至石油价格都会大跌一半。

    Jim Melcher是明星级基金经理,他管理的Balestra基金今年做空次级房贷概念投资产品等,已经升值175%,过去9年来每年累计增长30%。

    飞人认为中长线来看美股下跌是不可避免的,尽管今天道指反弹到200天均线之上,但是后市远远不容乐观,反而是做空入市的良好时机,因为卖空期权的价格更加便宜了。

    http://www.nysun.com/article/66268

    • 家园 one possibility

      what if wall street makes borrowing easy for the average American people/corporations again?

      regulations will be changed so that Fed can buy all these asset backed securities, corporate bonds, essentially, the Fed will give free money to the Americans. off course, stock market will be booming again.

      There is no doubt that the USD will be destroyed in the process. but it's the savers of USD that get screwed.

      How fast price in US will go up depends on what the creditors do.

      It's very possible that China become the ultimate bag holder.

      • 家园 China has lost $1 trillion

        in terms of purchasing power in the last 4 years as most of its foreign reserve is in USD.

        Of course the Americans have been working hard to let foreign parties to swallow the problem for them, and unfortunately they have been successful so far especially on the parts of China and Japan.

        However, there is a limit for how far they can push the envelope. As the world comes to realize the US dollar is just a worthless piece of paper, and starts switching to hard currency or better storage of value like gold, the Americans will painfully take the consequences - for now over 65% of worldwide foreign reserve is still in US notes, the crash of this magnitude will likely eliminate the US as a financial/economy superpower, which itself is not something Americans can take with ease.

        Not to mention hyperinflation will make US people suffer, no matter how much paper money they can print - without an outlet for those cheap paper, the Americans have to swallow those only by themselves. You will see $1000 oil and $10k gold, and you will have to pay $100 for just a humberger - the prices will just rise as fast as you can print the paper money. Because printing itself cannot create fortune or wealth.

        • 家园 既然说到外汇,转一下这个新闻

          http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7477

          Therefore, collateralize the credit in dollars -- especially if you're long in dollars. The lender/financier won't call the note because you have it structured in such a way to both allow it to perform and hold illiquid collateral that no one wants. This essentially inflates euros. Although you can't sell dollars, the whole purpose of collateral is that it is a second source of payment -- collateral is there to down rate the risk of the loan. Secondary becomes irrelevant.

          When February comes, the Chinese are going to do something as they will have to decide what the exposure is going to be with the treasury. As I see it they have to just dump the treasury. They only keep it because they can use it -- they have 43% direct/indirect of US treasuries so they'll dump them on the market.

          飞人兄可否就此文章分享自己的分析和看法?

        • 家园 其实中国外汇的政治价值大于经济价值

          个人看法:

          即便如今中国外汇因为美元崩盘而清空,对中国的经济根本并不会有太大的影响。而且别忘了世界上大部分国家的外汇都是美元的。如果美元崩盘,是一损俱损的情况。虽然中国受到的损失最大。

          其实如果美国进入大萧条,对中国打击最大的应该是失去这个全球最大消费市场的购买力。在需求量锐减的情况下,必然引发一连串的连锁效应,经济进入紧缩状态。届时中国能否渡过难关,是对政府的一大考验。

          • 家园 出口产品换回美元

            央行再发行人民币买入这美元,然后让这美元变成废纸。

            对国内经济来说,这和央行直接印人民币买入产品,然后把产品扔掉有什么区别?

            难道中国央行印钱只能叫通胀,美国央行印钱才能叫购买力?

            • 家园 美国央行乱印钱就是全球通胀

              谁说有购买力了呢?

              • 家园 对中国打击最大的应该是

                失去这个全球最大消费市场的购买力.

                My point is this:

                if PBOC just print fresh money and give it away to every Chinese people, for free, and have these people spend the money (so they can come back for more), the net result upon our domestic economy will be exactly the same as have the US consumers take our products and give us USD that we cannot spend. But the Chinese people will be a lot happier.

          • 家园 中国能做的也有限

            产油/气国要求用美元之外的货币支付,中国也只有卖出美元买入相应货币。

            除了伊朗、委内瑞拉拒绝美元付账之外,俄罗斯也要求用卢布支付了:

            http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM807WS6NTCE&refer=home

        • 家园 China's track record has been

          poor and is not improving.

          I think China will act like a newbie holding a losing position, i.e. till the pain (inflation runs rampant in China and social disorder gets out of control) becomes too much to bear then start a panic selling , or till the margin call comes (ripped off by wall street in Chinese domestic markets).

          China however learned the skills called jawboning recently. But the west knows this stuff.

    • 家园 从走势图上看,9100属于崩盘了

      2003年的底给了一个很好的例子。点看全图

      外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

      如果这次经济衰退成立的话,根据1991,1995和2003的经济衰退的底部形态,9100是不可能的,会有可能碰碰11000,那可是个大底,请看那个成交密集区。

      从这张走势图上看,现在是属于牛市还是熊市?

    • 家园 【文摘】再论美国经济阶段性衰退的可能

      美国房地产泡沫化的第二个年头,不仅没看到峰回路转的曙光,反而引发了次级房贷的风暴,涉及的债务达 9 千多亿美元。据 DEUTCHE BANK SECURITIES 分析师估算,全球净损失将达 4 千亿美元。以去年中国对美国出口总额的规模折算,相当于两年出口额的总和。据 REALTY TRAC 公司本月初的统计,全美第三季度进入法律程序拍卖的房屋达 44.6 万栋,比去年同期飙涨 100.1% ,比二季度高出 33.9% ,全美每 194 栋房屋,就有一栋处在拍卖之中。

      各大银行和证券公司损失惨重。美林证券( MERRILL LYNCH) 第三季度注销 84 亿美元的次级房贷相关的损失,花旗银行( CITY BANK) 第三季度注销 35 亿与此有关的坏账,利润下跌 57% ,到了要变卖资产或减少股息发放才能继续保持营运的地步,初步估算花旗银行整个次贷损失在 80 亿到 110 亿左右。摩根士坦利( MORGAN STANLEY) 注销 10 亿美元,获利下跌 17% ,美国银行( BANK OF AMERICA) 注销 13.3 亿,利润下跌 93% ,贝尔斯顿 (BEAR STEARNS) 续今年 6 月倒闭两个全盛期达 160 亿次级房贷证券避险基金后,再度注销 2 亿美元的次级房贷亏损,获利下跌 61% ,全美第二大房贷金融业者房地美( FREDDIE MAC) 第三季度亏损 20 亿,创下起历史上最大亏损纪录。( 1 )事实上,这还仅仅是整个金融系统冰山的一角,凡涉及到次级房贷业务的银行都有不同程度的损失,有的已经暴露,有的还在暴露之中。

      无独有偶,据财福杂志( FORTUNE) 日昨报道,美国信用卡债务也达到了历史的最高水平,为 9150 亿美元,不断攀升的违约率,让银行业日感惶恐。花旗银行已预估到未来的损失,将提出 22.4 亿美元借贷损失金来填补损失。第一资本( CAPITAL ONE) 和华盛顿互惠银行预估它们的信用卡损失将增加 20% 。随着房地产市场的进一步恶化,通货膨胀上升,个人开销大增,还不起信用卡的民众必然会随之增加。华尔街的分析师们都坦率地表示目前还无法估计这个黑洞到底有多大,以及对整体经济产生危害的程度。( 2 )

      金融业的股价大幅下跌,今年,标准普尔 500 指数上涨 7.9% ,而金融指数则下降 9.4% ,是表现最差的行业。 11/2/2007 年,花旗银行的股价跌 35%, 到了 4 年来的最低点。一些权威的分析师认为,在未来 6 个月,金融业还会有更多的坏消息出笼,股价还有进一步下降的空间。

      各大金融公司为了削减支出,已开始裁减员工,更换上层主管。美国银行已宣布在投资部门裁员 3000 人,并劝退其投资部门的主管,由更适合的人取而代之。摩根斯坦利集团初步决定裁员 600 ,李曼兄弟 8 月份已裁员 1200 人。花旗银行的执行长普林斯( CHARLES PRINCE) 被迫辞职,他是续美林证券执行长奥尼尔 (STANLEY O’NEAL) 之后,第二个因次贷危机下台的金融高级主管。可以预料,随着坏消息水落石出,金融公司还会有进一步的行动。上一波房地产泡破发生在上个世纪 90 年代初, 花旗银行因爆发不良债权问题,出现了 4.57 亿元的赤字,其股票在第 3 季度出现创业以来的首次无红利。累计裁员一成多,达 1 万多人。到底这次金融界要缩水多少,花旗银行上一波裁员的幅度,无疑是一面镜子。

      全文见此

    • 家园 动荡不安的市场

      点看全图

      外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

      上图表明最近的市场调整幅度已超过八月份次贷危机的幅度.

      点看全图

      外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

      市场波动指数已经达到自2003年九月的最高, 同样高于八月份.

      Last earnings season's decline of 6.87% was the worst since Q4 '02, when the index was down 7.78%. Fortunately, the market snapped back significantly and was up 9.72% from WMT's report date on 8/14 through the start of this earnings season on 10/9.

      今天WMT做了同样的事, (历史可能重复).

      但用WAL-MART的数据来证明消费市场本身是不能令人信服.明天可能还有一个三百点的升幅,然后呢? 是对YEAR END RALLY的悬念?

      基本面没有变化,市场还会动荡下去.然后会看到信心的丧失.动荡持续...

    • 家园 俺有一些蠢问题。

      在这里:【请教】北美上班族是否还应该买股票基金: 请倥偬飞人等大侠拿主意

      不知大侠能不能抽空解答一下。

      先花谢了。

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