主题：A Gary Shilling对今年投资和经济前景的预测 -- 倥偬飞人

One year ago, Gary Shilling

1. predicted a rally in the dollar.

2. forecast spreading deflationary expectations.

3. said the yield curve would continue to flatten.

4. said the housing bubble might burst.

5. said a renewed bear market in U.S. stocks might occur.

6. stated that a hard landing in China might happen.

How did things turn out? The dollar rallied. Deflationary expectations spreading beyond autos and into appliance stores, department stores, computers and recreational vehicles. The yield curve flattened and, late in Dec. 2005, inverted. While the housing bubble hasn’t burst, that red-hot market has evidently cooled. While U.S. equities didn't plummet like they did in the 2000-2002 bear market, the Dow Jones Average last year was down while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered only slight gains. And despite efforts to cool an overheated economy without dumping it into a recession, China’s economy appears to be facing serious difficulties.