主题：【摘编】美国经济衰退已经在不少行业中开始了 -- 倥偬飞人

Today's employment report was consistent with my analysis that a good part of the economy is already in a recession: mediocre headline figure at 92K jobs with sharp fall in construction and manufacturing employment, flat levels of the leading temporary employment and falling retail sector employment. Only the service sector is still growing jobs (mostly governement, health care and burger-flipping food sector jobs). And note that both employment and the unemployment rate are lagging indicators of the business cycles. So, it is pretty bad if the best we can do is to add 92K jobs even before an economy-wide recession has started.

In conclusion, the argument that the housing recession is not spilling over to other sectors and to the consumer is faltering: we already have a housing recession, a coming non-residential construction recession, an auto recession, a manufacturing recession, a durable goods recession, an industrial sector recession, and now signs of faltering of the service sector starting with the retail sector and the fall in consumer confidence. Q4 growth is headed to be even worse than the dismal Q3 and the economy is highly likely to enter into an outright recession by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007.