主题：【摘编】美国经济衰退已经在不少行业中开始了 -- 倥偬飞人

The Coming 2007 Recession Has Already Started in Many Sectors of the Economy...

Since last July I have been predicting that the US will enter into a recession in 2007. By now it is clear that several sectors of the economy are already in a recession, that Q4 growth will be lower than Q3 growth and that a formal recession (two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth) will very likely start by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007.

It is is certainly the case that we are already in a severe housing recession; and this housing recession is nowhere near bottoming out: building permits - the most important leading indicator of future housing - fell another 5% last month and are already down 30%, and likely to fall even more in the coming months. In the housing sector the cycle starts with permits that lead to housing starts, to construction spending, employment in housing and sales. The continued fall in permits is the strongest signal that a 15% fall in housing starts (from trailing peak) is only the beginning of a much sharper adjustment in the housing sector. The sharp fall in new home prices - down 10% already - is the beginning of a much bigger downward adjustment in prices ahead.

The housing recession is now spreading to other sectors of the economy. Until Q2 non residential construction investment was strong but it was only half the size of housing; but by now it is clear that non residential construction is also completely stalling; the figures for total construction spending for September show a sharp fall in residential construction and a stall of non residential construction. The reason for this contagion from residential to non residential construction is obvious: since we have now entire "ghost towns" in the West (a term used by SF Fed Prez Janet Yellen to describe many housing developments that are empty in the West) no one is going to build stores, shopping malls, shopping centers/strips, offices near these "ghost towns". Indeed, as reported in the lead article of the WSJ last week, a McGraw Hill Construction study forecasted sharp drops in non-residential construction in 2007 as lower housing leads to lower non residential construction. Indeed, the October figures for construction employment already show a fall of 26K (after a plus of 5K in September), a fall that will accelerate in the next few months as housing construction now under completion is completed and then new starts will become sharply lower.

And now in addition to a housing recession and the coming non-residential construction recession, we are also into an auto sector recession that is getting worse by the month as major auto makers as slashing production in face of sluggish sales and massive excess capacity. But this is not just a auto sector recession. We are also already in a manufacturing recession and non-manufacturing industrial recession too: two months of consecutive fall in industrial production, a manufacturing ISM that was borderline awful (just above the 50 recession mark), continued and persistent fall in manufacturing employment (-39K in October alone). Things are getting particularly bad in consumer durables sectors (autos, home appliance, furniture, etc.) as these are closer to housing; but more broadly almost all industrial sectors are contracting. So, housing and construction and manufacturing and industrial sector are already in a recession.