主题：原创: 强烈推荐加拿大股票市场CLL.TO -- oiler2

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Assalam O Aliakum,

According to the basic principle of economic. The price of any product is determined by supply & demand. Some call it the market forces. The price of product usually settles at an equilibrium point where the supply meets demand.

When the demand out strips supply the price will move higher. When there is sharp increase in the price of a product there is always a tendency by the market to increase the supply. For certain products the time span to increase the supply is very long as in the case of Oil & Gas. Then there is the case of LAND where the supply is limited & prices of land will usually continue to move higher & higher.

A sharp spike in the price of a basic product can also cause some destruction of demand when consumers will reduce some consumption, there would be a better utilization of the product & some cheaper alternatives are used. This destruction in demand does ease some pressure on price. But historically the demand for Oil & gas is constantly increasing & will continue to grow. This will at least create a higher base price for the product.

We all know that supply for Oil & Gas is very tight & with the recent hurricanes the situation has gone from bad to worse. Significant production from Gulf of Mexico is still shut off. It will take some time for all the platforms & refineries to come back online. Luckily we are in the shoulder month but this is the time when we should be building reserves for heating oil. Some fear that come this winter we might see actual crisis if we have a cold winter.

Some are already predicting that there will definitely be a shortage of Natural Gas & the price of Natural Gas, which has already doubled to $14, will triple to about $20. It is not easy to transport gas. It is expected that this winter there will be shortage of N. Gas. One should also load up on N.GAS stocks because they are going to pop hard in Jan & Feb 2006.

Lot of institutional investors are expecting some correction or a bit of a pull back for the month of October based on seasonal trend. This is a shoulder period when the demand for oil & gas reduces & inventories build up. This is the reason that some of the funds are not aggressively buying in to the stock these days. Some of these investors are not taking into account the true impact of the two hurricanes.

At this stage there is a massive confusion with Oil & Gas data in USA. The situation is in a flux & not very clear as there are so many factors involved which are very difficult to really assess. Due to unreliability of the data & large number of unknown variables it has become difficult to accurately predict what will actually happen this winter. We might get a very nasty surprise with a chance of real crisis. There is some crisis in Hurricane hit areas. There is a desperate attempt to conserve fuel. They even cancelled school for two days to shave 500k galloons. How many times are they going to cancel school to save on fuel?

At this stage it is very clear the demand is larger than the supply, even though our Saudi brothers keep reminding us there is no problem with supply. Oil & Gas price will remain strong at least for the short run.

Bullish investors of Oil & Gas have to constantly monitor supply & demand. They have to watch for two things:

1. Level of destruction of demand with further spike in prices, when it exceeds the buying power of consumers. I do not think that $3.00 a gallon would cause much of a problem. We Canadians have been paying that for a while now.

2. Recession.

Now lets talk of CLL

Over the last two months the stock continues to make a higher base price & the support level for the stock continues to improve as it fills the gap & the average cost post of investors has increased.

In the month of August the base price was $2.06. When 111 million shares were traded. A short position of 5.5 million shares was created in anticipation of financing @ $1.85.

In the month of September over 58 million shares were traded & the base price for this month was $2.29. In the month of September will saw massive distribution of shares. The underwriters dumped a large number of shares for fast profit. A large number of shares were give to short term investors who did not wait to lock in profits. In the case of Anonymous who dumped about 13 million shares. He would have made over $3 million in a short time. Now the short position has been wiped clean from the shares from the last financing. It seems that most of the distribution is done. Or at least at these prices. In one way it was good that major distribution was done close to $2.00 which means that the stock will not have to deal with major resistance for large sellers when the stock breaks out again & attempts to trade at higher prices.

CLL is now trading in the upper channel & is at the striking distance of creating a new 52-week closing high. CLL created a double closing top of $2.59 & pulled back to intra day low of $2.23. Very few shares were traded under the base price of September. I recall it was Canaccord who had dumped a block, which took the stock down to a low $2.23 for a very short time. The rebound that day was very sharp. The closing bottom for the recent pull back was $2.40.

While the stock had created a double top at $2.59. During the run ups, once it created an intra-day high of $2.60 & the second time high of $2.69.

Last weeks trading was very interesting. Large number of frustrated retail day trader exited the stock. Some expecting a weakness due to reduced volume sold to buy at lower prices. But the stock never tanked & kept on inching higher on relatively low volume.

On Friday early morning volume was so low that some of the traders kept on selling. Expecting the stock to sell-off. With low volume & large blocks for sale at $2.48, 2.49 , 2.50 & higher it was every difficult to envisage that the stock will gain $.09 especially when the crude oil also dropped over a $1.00 at one time.

The only reason the stock continued to inch higher in the last three days was that there were very few large sellers. There was no one dropping large blocks on the bids. The traders who had placed lower bids to buy at pull back & sell at the pop never got filled. Some of them with other buyer had to buy at the offer. There are other who are still waiting & may end up chasing the stock. It is funny when there is any weakness the sellers show up & when the stock become strong the other buyers join the party. Due to the bursting of Tech bubble lot investors have become traders.

In the recent past, at times brokers like Dundee & other use to show up just before the close & sell large number of shares. I did not see that during the last few trading days. The reason that stock has moved higher from $2.40 to $2.54 on low volume has been largely lack of large sellers. I did not see any large buying coming out of any particular brokerage. The buying during the large few days was largely retail & very broad based.

The stock is now $.05 cent from closing high of $2.59. MACD is just crossing over the signal line. Barring a strong pullback in crude prices the stock is getting ready to create a new high. While the consolidation time has been short & base price of support is still around $2.29 the stock is still capable of moving higher. To a large extend the stock has filled the gap. Preferably the increase in share price should be fully supported by strong volume. At times stock can move higher on relatively low volume provided there are no large sellers.

So far I have not seen large institutional buying CLL. Some institutions would have picked up shares from the last financing. I have neither seen any sign of USA buying. Most of the buying has been retail. Even most traders are retail. Canaccord & Latimer is constantly trading the stock for small margin. When institutional investors start buying & trading this stock the fluctuation in the stock price will be much bigger & the volume will spike. In case of UTS some intuitions buy 500K to a million shares in a day. This will one day happen with CLL too.

Wassalam