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主题:【文摘】一道有趣的概率题 -- 天下第一银杏树

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家园 I disagree

重新选:1. ...

2、原来没有选中汽车,则重新选后,选中汽车概率:2/3 * 1/2 =1/3

If you picked a goat, then the other two doors have to be a goat and a car. The host would ALWAYS show you a goat, and therefore the only remaining door has got to be a car. Thus, if you switch, you are guaranteed to pick the car. Therefore, in this case, the 概率 equals 2/3 * 1 = 2/3, rather than 1/3.

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