主题：【原创】“中国崩溃论”屡屡崩溃的根本原因 -- 比的原理

it is very interesting to compare "china model" with "US model"

1.

now, china side

"更完善的毛细血管循环系统，这才能从更长远上保住国有经济占核心的地位"

plus side:

TG's may be thinking of that way, and it may have a lot of rooms to do that as well.

and as long as china economy keeps growing, global capital will stay, because basically US gdp growth rate is about 3%, and Europe zero, there is not many places you can find china kind of growth rate;

so, likely, china will be ok, in terms of preventing capital (now global, including Chinese 民资), and attracting capital.

minus side

the fundamental problem of "china model": due to its largely 国有经济 nature, china does not really have a "white" private ownership and law based system, a capital market in particular, and we all know that other than financing function, a super important function of capital market is information processing;

then, china model can never really catch up on the innovation and value-added growth side of the game, still relying on largely government financed growth which is almost always capital wasting and lacks innovation and value added growth.

and because of that "plus side", TG will never be forced to do real reform hoped by those "real" capitalists or 右派,民资, and likely they will speculate, instead of invest in china.

as you said, "民资的特点本来就是无利不起早——但同时又往往是鼠目寸光。你不给他们点甜头，没人跟你玩。但我党的特色不就是初一十五不一样么", 右派,民资, all global capital market all know that too, capital market is efficient in long run, and as a result, 我党 has to pay a risk premium adjusted for 我党's risk of 初一十五不一样;

and considering the lack of competitive information processing systems such as capital market, 我党 will end up with a low efficiency economy after paying higher risk premium for capital.

so in long run, 我党 will be squeezed in that economic game.

now, why TG plays trick like this? it could be many for many reasons, most likely, TG really wants to 保住国有经济占核心的地位, or and without 国有经济占核心, TG will be a military and political power only, even domestically;

or TG top could be still struggling as about the fundament direction going forward:

go "white", go "右" with two feet jumping in? even economically doing that requires political reform of huge steps;

now, with domestic Chinese "common people" ("educated" by 毛主席) watching TG very closely, and with Uncle Sam tightening up "containing china", TG is kind of squeezed in the middle.

luckily, for the next few years, TG's economic growth will be ok likely, so, just hang on there, not doing much, in terms of economic or political reform.

domestically politically, TG seems confident and in control, not much risk there. and I always think that "majority" of Chinese people support TG.

meanwhile, TG will be watching if Hillary get into white house,etc

2.

the us side

its innovation and growth sectors will be growing even faster,

and US is very lucky too, its energy independence is almost there, and all kinds of new models of manufacturing competing with china are testing out domestically, a very elastic system with a lot of potentials.

and its attraction of financial and human brain capital world wide grows even stronger, particularly after 2008 financial crisis, and now the world sees that "china model" may well have topped out.

TPP. uncle sam hopes to get that TPP thing going, and if TPP can make it work to some extent, get the TPP market set up and economy growing, then that will possibly suck out of a lot of capital out of china's high growth, high risk and low efficiency economy.

I don't know, but I personally guess TPP is a very difficult thing to do, so TG may be lucky again.