主题：奥巴马政府：电池车非零排放，超内燃机 -- 过来看井大

1. Grid-connected electric vehicles (GEVs) are not cleaner and not likely to get cleaner than unleaded vehicles. The problem is the extra 13-23% more energy needed to make to batteries than an internal combustion engine (ICE). The U.S. National Academy of Science projects that even in 2030, ICE driven cars will be 9% cleaner than full battery

electric vehicles (BEVs) and 17% cleaner than plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

用电网充电的电动车并不比传统车绿色。原因是需要13-23%更多的能量来充电（？）。

美国国家科学院预计，至到2030年，内燃机车比纯电动或者混合车省能9%或者17%。

2. GEVs are too expensive to achieve widespread adoption, and experts don’t see this changing in the next decade.

We expect BEVs and PHEVs coming out this year to have a $9,000 - $20,000 premium over similar ICE cars. We estimate payback times in the 1.2 to 1.9 years for PHEVs after subsides. For BEVs they are all over 3 years, but can be over 10 years. In our opinion, unless the economics to the end user are significantly better, most will continue with the

status quo.

过于昂贵，消费者投资回报期长，即使有政府补贴，也不可持续。

3. GEV batteries have performance and safety issues that look difficult to solve, meaning adoption could be slowed by field testing and initial failures. The range of BEVs with current batteries looks to be around 100 miles, which may be ok for certain city dwellers, but for many that will not be enough. Typical cars have a range today of 400 miles. This range is severely diminished in cold temperatures.

不稳定，巡航长度短，在冬天，在夏天，都会有问题。

3. Only specific niche applications will work for GEVs; again no widespread adoption. To get around the cost, performance, and infrastructure limitations we believe only a few applications will sell including high-end PHEVs, short distance municipal buses, and European based BEVs.

充电网不好解决，只能发展一些高端/短途的产品。

4. The automotive business requires size and electric vehicles are no different. Over the last 50 years it has beendifficult to start a new car company (think DeLorean), but we are seeing new electric car companies today. All of the

top 12 motor groups in the world (roughly 85% share) have a PHEV/BEV announced, and 7 of them expect to be in mass production in 2010 or 2011. We believe the large manufacturers will eventually be the winners in the electric car race – and battery makers need to be supplying this group to achieve the scale needed for low unit costs.

不翻译了，Google Translator。

我的看法是，如果要国家电网配合，这是一个庞大的工程，又是巨大的政府投入，还是要慎重的。不能人有多敢想，地有多高产。