主题：奥巴马政府：电池车非零排放，超内燃机 -- 过来看井大

What we expect #1 – electric vehicles remain stuck in a niche for at least 10 years

Why we expect it #1 – costs need to be at parity for consumers to make the switch, costs are driven by the

battery, which experts do not see reaching the needed cost performance in 10 years.

Why it is important #1 – without mass adoption most electric vehicle companies will struggle

电池成本要降下来。如果不大规模的使用，成本下不来。

What we expect #2 – batteries will always be the key to electric vehicles

Why we expect it #2 – almost all the components outside of the drive train are quite mature

Why it is important #2 – batteries are going to be the major driver of both performance and cost; thus the key to the success of an electric vehicle

电池技术要进步。现有所有技术都已经非常成熟，瓶颈很大。

What we expect #3 – electric vehicles will become less interesting, as they are understood to pollute more than expected

Why we expect it #3 – the U.S. National Academy of Science study shows that BEVs and PHEVs both pollute more than unleaded gasoline vehicles: 8% and 22% worse using 2005 data and are projected to still be worse in 2030, by 9% and 17%.

Why it is important #3 – if battery manufacturers cannot reduce the amount of energy driving up the pollution, then they will not be actually better for the environment

纯电动车和混合动力车要比一般无铅汽油车排碳多达8%-22%；即使到了2030年，也排碳多9-17%。

What we expect #4 – governments will slow incentives for electric vehicles

Why we expect it #4 – sovereign debt issues will constrain governments

Why it is important #4 – electrical vehicles are not yet cost effective, incentives are supporting the companies today

政府补贴受经济情况影响，越来越少

What we expect #5 – Plug-in hybrid vehicles will be adopted much more readily than full battery electric vehicles

Why we expect it #5 – the range limitation of BEVs (around 100 miles in warm weather) and lack of charging stations will prevent mass adoption; PHEV overcome this limitation

Why it is important #5 – companies not supplying PHEVs will have trouble reaching the volumes necessary to be competitive

无充电站，上网成本贵，资本投资回笼慢。

What we expect #6 – Today’s battery chemistries will not get costs down for electric vehicles to be price competitive with internal combustion engines

Why we expect it #6 – Industry experts (like the Boston Consulting Group and A123 Systems) see a straight forward path to a 30% price reduction, but not the 70% needed

Why it is important #6 – without competitive pricing, electric vehicles will have to rely on subsidies and stay a niche market

电池需要至少降低70%的成本。现在最领先的降低30%都不到。

What we expect #7 – Government regulators will continue pushing electric vehicles, but adoption will be slow

Why we expect it #7 – similar to ethanol in the US, regulators and legislators want something to work but the reality is not there, which does not stop them from funding the effort for many years

Why it is important #7 – small companies can survive on government programs without mass adoption, large companies will do token efforts, but fast adoption requires a compelling advantage to get people to switch

因为潜在的经济不合理性，政府推进的力度会降低，用户会转移

What we expect #8 – Europe will be the first to adopt electric vehicles

Why we expect it #8 – the European consumer is very concerned about the environment, has relatively high

disposable income, has very high petrol prices, and has short driving distances; making the value proposition for electric vehicles the strongest. Think Car believes the U.S. does not have the demand, income level, infrastructure, nor incentives needed to support the earliest deployments of plug-ins.

Why it is important #8 – companies not supplying Europe will have trouble reaching the volumes necessary to be competitive

在欧洲推进，条件最好（环保理念等）

What we expect #9 – Carbon Regulation (either via Cap & Trade, a carbon tax, or other incentive) will continue in Europe and Asia, but the US, China, and India will move slowly

Why we expect it #9 – the Copenhagen meeting showed clearly where the countries are headed

Why it is important #9 – electric cars cut tailpipe emissions and could take advantage of the programs

What we expect #10 – Electric vehicles will become less interesting over the next 2-3 years

Why we expect it #10 – the promise is likely better than the reality (short range, pricing disadvantages, new technology issues, emission issues from battery manufacture, cold weather operations, lack of profits, increase in alternative approaches [LPG, CNG]);

Why it is important #10 – electric cars have ridden a wave of promise up, but the people will move away when issues occur (as they did in the 1990s in CA)

电池车热度2-3年内会降低

What we expect #11 – Charging infrastructure will progress slowly, rising concerns and further slowing adoption

Why we expect it #11 – in prior trials 90% of charges were done at home (though people want the stations out there), the home charge is more convenient and cheaper, this makes putting up stations that people don’t use less likely

Why it is important #11 – without charging stations BEVs will stay in the niche and consumers will go with PHEVs; utilities may have to upgrade transformers and substations to support charging in key zip codes (may limit ability to charge)

上网充电始终较难克服

What we expect #12 – Some consumers purchase emotionally, most consumers and fleets purchase rationally with pump price, purchase price, refueling infrastructure, and OEM commitment to aid the their decision

Why we expect it #12 – experience in Italy with propane (LPG) and natural gas buses in the U.S. show that if the purchase price is on par, the pump price is better, they can get refueled conveniently, and they trust the tech because the OEM is behind it; then you can get 30% market share (switching from what you know is never easy)

Why it is important #12 – these four metrics are a good first cut at analyzing markets and determining when they might see accelerated adoption rates

冲动购买的客户会很快转向。