主题：中国的政治风险 -- 风烟滚滚来天半

about China. (Personally, I think he wrote the book just to cash in the very obvious surge of interest in China since the collapse and the whole G-2 brouhaha.)he's more HKC than most Chinese. He argued that China's rise to superpower status would fundamentally change not only the global power balance, but also the very definition of "progress" and "modernization". I don't know how correct his prediction would be, obviously, nobody knows, I don't' think he is as confident in his argument as it appears. Anyway, one of his argument is that we should stop treating China as just another "communist country", obviously China isn't one, and we should not drag the whole debate about China through the whole "democracy vs authoritarianism" mud hole, which is a very recent phenomenon. According to him, China, as of 2009, should be seen more as a modernized version of imperial dynasty, like the dynasties China used to have. I think he makes sense. Another thing I think Western medias get right is their assessment that the very legitimacy of the government and the system lie with the ability of the government to keep economy grow at high rate and improve standard of living, obviously, the government agrees with them, that's the government puts so much stock into protecting 8% growth rate. Right now, obviously the economy is still growing at very high rate, and probably will continue to grow for quite a while. But eventually there will be a crisis, and what happens during the crisis will test if China could successful reclaim what many Chinese believe to be its rightful place in the world. Remember, imperial dynasty always plunge into stagnation, chaos, uprising and civil war after their peak, I don't think China could become the US if the current system could not survive economic calamity as severe as the great depression like the US did. And i don't think Chinese system as of 2009, could survive an economic calamity as severe as the great depression. The bottom line is everybody agrees that China has political risk and several economic crisis could test not just the current crop of leaders but also the political system as a whole while nobody, at least nobody I know of, believes that an severe crisis could fundamentally change American political system. That's the fundamental problem: resilience of society and political system, and that's the reason so many westerners and Chinese, ask the very legitimate question regarding potential system-wrecking instability. Every time somebody conjures up another campaign against what I see, minor, insignificant domestic detractors such as internet, liberal opposition (there is no way they can or should be allowed to, govern China, at least not until they grow an spine in their dealing with the west, nonetheless, I'm dismayed by the fact that the government reacts so strongly to a bunch of basically "useless" talkers who would never possesses the resources and organizational skills to threaten the government.) and even those who, for all I know, were doing the right thing such as demanding answers regarding why so many schools were shoddily built, I find myself less sure of China's future. I have no doubt that China will continue to grow for quite a while, but believe me, eventually, there will be crisis, not just regular crisis, serious crisis, it's statistically inevitable. Then what? I don't see the government preparing itself for the sure-to-come political challenge if crisis indeed broke out, all I see is increasingly intolerant policy against the media, against the internet, against anything and anybody who doesn't sing along with the government. It's really discouraging. And I don't kn ow what to do and how to make of it.

I'm not saying China would plunge into chaos next year, as you said, there are still room to grow out of the problem. But if there were no system change, not outright, not overnight, but gradual change that should have begun NOW, whatever crisis that eventually happens will cost China far more than what we can imagine, just how much more? Just read what happened after the collapse of Han Dynasty, Jin Dynasty, Tang Dynasty and Qing Dynasty. I just hope that China could be a China where, when bad thing happens, people would worry about losing their homes in a foreclosure crisis rather than worrying about losing their lives in a civil war. Again, they should start working on it NOW, however, as far as I can see, the only thing they work on is to spend countless amount of money on coming up better ways to shut people up.