主题：【文摘】楼市“大范围降温”美国房市陷入了“鬼城” -- 倥偬飞人

所以就要被迫通缩了。

现在全世界都不敢让自己的货币升值，谁升值谁倒霉，所以大家竞相贬值印钞票。在这个情况下，最倒霉的不是欠债的，或者已经把资产放在实物上的人，而是满手纸币的，这些人将会是下一次大萧条来临时最大的输家。

开工许可申请下降6.3%!

Housing Construction Plunges in October

Friday November 17, 9:01 am ET

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

Housing Construction Plunges in October, Commerce Department Reports

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Housing construction plunged to the lowest level in more than six years in October as the nation's once-booming housing market slowed further.

The Commerce Department reported on Friday that construction of new single-family homes and apartments dropped to an annual rate of 1.486 million units last month, down a sharp 14.6 percent from the September level.

The decline, bigger than had been expected, was the largest percentage decline in 19 months and pushed total activity down to the lowest level since July 2000.

Applications for new building permits, seen as a good sign of future plans, fell for an eighth consecutive month, declining 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.535 million units.

The sharp slowdown in housing this year stands in stark contrast to the past five years, when the lowest mortgage rates in four decades had powered a housing boom that pushed sales of both new and existing homes to five consecutive records.

The housing weakness trimmed a full percentage point off economic growth in the July-September quarter, when the economy expanded at a tepid 1.6 percent rate. Housing is expected to continue acting as a drag over the next year but analysts believe the adverse effects of falling sales and construction cutbacks will not be enough to pull the country into a recession.

There were signs that the steep plunge in housing was beginning to level off. The monthly survey of builder sentiment edged up slightly in early November following another small increase in October. It marked the first back-to-back improvements in builder sentiment since June 2005.

The level of building activity in October was 27.4 percent below activity in October 2005, the biggest year-over-year decline since March 1991.

Construction of single-family homes fell by 15.9 percent in October from the seasonally adjusted September level, dropping to an annual rate of 1.177 million units. Construction of multi-family units dropped by 9.1 percent to an annual rate of 309,000 units.

The drop in construction was led by a 26.4 percent decline in the South. Construction fell by 11.7 percent in the Midwest and was down 2.1 percent in the West.

The only region showing strength was the Northeast, where construction jumped by 31 percent.

纽约时报今日报道，估计每5个subprime mortgage中就有一个将被强制拍卖！这是一个十分可怕的数据，因为这不仅仅是房奴的噩梦，更将是subprime mortgage lender的噩梦！两边都没有赢家。借贷利率在7%的话，lender肯定要亏损不少，因为房市下跌的时候，强制拍卖的价格可想而知不会好。外链出处

据WSJ报道，世界第三大的银行，HSBC四年前购入美国Household International 而获得这种业务，以为获得了新的盈利增长点，如今也承认遇到了越来越大的困难。这给香港股市又要浇上一盆凉水，因为HSBC是港股中最大的蓝筹。据说中国的外汇储备中，有一部分买入了美国所谓mortgage backed securities，这个前景也不看好。

Roubini教授认为，房市泡沫的破裂有可能引发银行业的严重危机，要知道HSBC从来都是银行业的佼佼者，如今也陷入这种泥沼，显然其他的银行也不会幸免于难，而Countywide Financial这种银行，就更不用说了。

另据分析，房市的崩溃要过很长时间才能恢复，可能要长达15年之久，所以不会轻易地触底反弹。