主题：疫情爆发状态下，对新冠死亡数据是很难确证的 -- 夕曦

他们是先有个根据往年情况预估的一年里各周的平均死亡数，拉成曲线，然后把这两年的总死亡数分成两类，一类是排除新冠的，一类是包括新冠的。把它们放在一个图表里非常直观，可见排除新冠因素的死亡，和往年预估的平均数是高度吻合的，而包括新冠的死亡数，基本就是超额死亡了，高峰的几个周都要高出预估平均值的30-40%。

我个人以为，看这个图基本可以得出这么几个结论：

1.说今年的这波奥米克隆导致的死亡少于去年的说法可以休矣！

2.说美国新冠死亡的100万人，其实很多不是死于新冠的说法可以休矣！

3.奥米克隆致死的人都达到了平均寿命的说法可以休矣！

通宝推：strain2,曾伴浮云,青青的蓝,柴门夜归,老调重弹,审度,方恨少,MaverickZ,陈王奋起,桥上,

复跟英美的标准保持一致可好？

家园

英国新冠死亡统计标准有好几个，标准也不一样

比如一夜情在20年的时候统计叫Weekly provisional figures on deaths registered where coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate in England and Wales

标准是

For deaths registered from 1st January 2020, cause of death is coded to the ICD-10 classification using MUSE 5.5 software. Previous years were coded to IRIS 4.2.3, further information about the change in software is available.

具体解释在这里

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsfromcovid19brokendownbyicd10codeandsectionofthedeathcertificateandhowdeathsarecodedandrecorded

We report deaths 'due to' COVID-19 (where it was recorded as the underlying cause of death) and deaths 'involving' COVID-19 (where it was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, either as underlying cause or as a contributory factor).

Our definition of COVID-19 (regardless of whether it was the underlying cause or mentioned elsewhere on the death certificate) includes some cases where the certifying doctor suspected the death involved COVID-19 but was not certain. For example, a doctor may have clinically diagnosed COVID-19 based on symptoms, but this diagnosis may not have been confirmed because no test was available, or the test result was inconclusive.

Of the 73,477 deaths 'due to' COVID-19, 4,009 (5.5%) were classified as "suspected" COVID-19. Including all deaths involving COVID-19, "suspected" COVID-19 was recorded on 5.6% (4,589 deaths) of all deaths involving COVID-19 in England and Wales. This information is available in the main article of the December 2020 monthly deaths publication (See definition of COVID-19).

In order to provide detailed cause information, such as a breakdown between ICD-10 codes U07.1 and U07.2, or a breakdown of data showing which parts of the death certificate had COVID-19 recorded, we would need to create bespoke analysis. Under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, Public Authorities are not obligated to create information in order to respond to requests. We therefore consider this to be information not held.

Once death registrations are finalised in July 2021, further breakdowns of deaths by cause will be published on our website in the annual deaths registered series and further bespoke analysis will be available on request (subject to legal frameworks, disclosure control, resources and agreements of costs).

具体的信息可以看原始网页

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2021年的报告标题没有变还是Weekly provisional figures on deaths registered where coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate in England and Wales

统计变化如下：

From week ending 26th February 2021 (week 8) new ICD-10 codes for COVID-19 issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO) have been implemented for deaths involving COVID-19. The new codes are U09.9 (Post-COVID condition, where the acute COVID had ended before the condition immediately causing death occurred) and U10.9 (Multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with COVID-19 (also called Kawasaki-like syndrome), a specific, uncommon effect of COVID-19 in children). These are in addition to the existing codes of U07.1 (COVID-19, virus identified) and U07.2 (COVID-19, virus not identified, i.e. COVID-19 stated to be unconfirmed or suspected).

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而英国政府公布的数据，那个是Deaths within 28 days of positive test

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

通宝推：菜根谭,

复疫情爆发状态下，对新冠死亡数据是很难确证的

家园

上海只是老老实实的一直瞒报而已

这一波疫情过后，上海病亡数字大概要上五位数。

复上海只是老老实实的一直瞒报而已

家园

自从非典爆发之后，国内还真不敢大规模瞒报了

当时的惨痛教训是，疫情是瞒不住的，事后最倒霉的是官员。