主题：【原创】数字来说话--为子玉兄的美元理论做注解 -- 种植园土

可是法币体系里面的法币没例外都是贬值的。按照最近几年发行规模看，美元几乎是最规矩的了。如果中国政府不是这样卖地卖资产，早破产了；换句话说，美国卖一点家当会不会就解决了？

（1）记得两本书：一是the rise and fall of great powers （保罗肯尼迪《大国的兴衰》；二是the decline and fall of roman empire。

过度扩张--政府财政衰败--势力范围收缩--加剧衰败是帝国下降时期的典型症状。

decline的过程很漫长。不过，我把华尔街为了私利，转移技术至日本等国，看做是美国衰落的起点。

（2）当经济断层积累到一定程度，地震就会发生。73年布雷顿森林体系垮掉，是一个很好的例子，称得上第一步。现在美国财政危机之后将发生的，是第二步。

（3）不认为美国会溃崩，但会换一种思路维持其统治。中国因素在于实质性地改变了工业国和原料国之间的力量对比。美国和欧洲的工业国必须在全球化的自由贸易和旧式的划分势力范围之间取一，否则，任由中国走下去，原料国会纷纷崛起，美国、日本、欧洲都会被矮化。在这种情况下，美帝要么放手一搏，千秋万代一统江湖，要么接受旧式帝国主义的昨日重现。

（4）美帝做不到千秋万代一统江湖--只要不敢地面入侵伊朗--即便炸了伊朗的核反应堆--仍是扯淡。但美帝也不希望一家独大的局面结束。所以美帝发动了全球的带路党捣乱。如果这一波美帝不成功，积累几十年的力量就大致要被清洗了，多极化就要开始了。

应对通货膨胀和美元贬值，大部分OPEC国家的对策是少采油，够花就行。这些国家经济地位在增强。

以及FED貌似在年初还是什么时候就宣布了会逐渐降低购买国债的数量，是否已经可以确认有大批美元已经回流了？不过境外投资者购买美债数量也降低了，那么是通过什么方式购买的？美国本土的基金？

中国因素在于实质性地改变了工业国和原料国之间的力量对比

否则，任由中国走下去，原料国会纷纷崛起，美国、日本、欧洲都会被矮化

You are absolutely right. China factor is the true reason behind the shift of power from manufacturing nations to raw material providers.

But two points,

1. China needs to ask itself whether its current strategy is smart given it is a rising industrialized nation itself. China has squeezed its own environment, natural resources, its own cheap labor to extreme. China wants to continue like that?

It wants to be a second America, consuming oil 20m barrel a day and leaving its key national interest to the mercy of mid-easters???

You know this much better than I do. Do you trust those mid-eastern muslims?

IS THAT A SUSTAINABLE STRATEGY IN THE LONG RUN? hehe.

2. 原料国会纷纷崛起--no, they will only have temporary bubbles. Because they fail to utilize the money to cultivate a sophisticated labor force and an efficient political infrastructure. When resource price collapse, they went back to the stone age just as where THEY CAME FROM 10 YEARS AGO.

EASY WEALTH GETS SQUANDERED EASILY.

In the last two hundred years, very few 原料国 converted itself into a mature advanced nation. Canada is one exception, but it has US industrial investment and British political system as foundation. "advanced nation" is not measured by GDP/per capita--it is determined by a multitude of factors. Based on pure GDP/per capita, Saudi should be the most advanced nation in the world.

But it is not. So are many many African/Latin American nations. Majority of them squandered all their easily-gotten wealth.

EASY WEALTH GETS SQUANDERED EASILY.

For risk-averse rich men from China, most fled States, Canada, UK, Australia and European nations. Your own choice for your family/kids has shown your judgment. So do I.

原料国会纷纷崛起--Brazil will have big trouble soon.

We only see their party time for 10 years.

History is not linear and will not extrapolate forward for the next 10 years.

3. （1）记得两本书：一是the rise and fall of great powers （保罗肯尼迪《大国的兴衰》；二是the decline and fall of roman empire。

过度扩张--政府财政衰败--势力范围收缩--加剧衰败是帝国下降时期的典型症状。very true.

a. Romans suffered from civil war and barbarian invasion. It was two key sources of fiscal problems. Not for America. Hispanic was constrained in west states.

b. From a technical perspective, US' fiscal resource has not been fully explored. America's tax/GDP ratio is only 19%. Most advanced nations are already easily 2x that level.

decline的过程很漫长。

--Agree. But we need to first identify peak.

我把华尔街为了私利，转移技术至日本等国，看做是美国衰落的起点。

--华尔街 is a two-sided sword. Without Wall Street, Americans would not even have their first railway, first waterway... America would have just been a backwater natural resource provider inside the British empire.

YOU NEED TO READ THE HISTORY CAREFULLy.

Wall Street has been the trouble makers many times. Last time was 1929. When it WAS NOT WELL-REGULATED, its dark side overshadowed its positive effect and it is an evil force for destruction. That's the lesson to learn. That's why we need SEC and Securities and Exchange Act of 1934.

Without an efficient capital market, America would not be an innovation leader and there would be no rise of America in 1980s and 1990s again. There would be no Google, no Apple, no Microsoft...

YOU ARE SELECTIVELY READING HISTORY for your own argument.

转移技术至日本等国，看做是美国衰落的起点。

--no, the dry-up of innovation is the 衰落的起点。Technology lost value fast. 100 years ago, car making was cool and hot tech, but who viewed it today in this way?

1929 bubble was driven by the booming of radio technology.

--yes. I am not kidding. Radio is now junky tech...

SOURCE OF VITALITY COMES FROM CONTINUOUS INNOVATION AND GENERATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES, NOT safeguarding of old tech. That's why America can renaissance in 1980s, but UK can not even after WWI.

（4）美帝做不到千秋万代一统江湖--fully agree.

And it will contract for sure. And many Americans want it to do so too. Costs have overgrown benefits.

Our starting point of debate is the trashing of USD.

I think we have deviated from our starting point. And you hold certain sets of beliefs and selectively put data there.

My point is clear:

1. inflation is a global issue;

2. mild inflation could adjust the USD system without bankrupting it;

3. Zi Yu is bluffing about something that will not happen and he lacks technical knowhows in finance field;

4. A big storm is sure to hit Europe. It will bring down emerging market too.

5. technical details are as important as big picture views. Make sure we use the right statistics. Do not blah blah with billions of debt. The key stat is debt service ratio and debt/GDP ratio.

THE WORLD IS NOT LINEAR AND WE DO NOT HAVE CRYSTAL BALLS. Under crisis, anglo-saxons will adjust their nations and they are now the most flexible nations in the world.

10 years later, we will laugh at our debate here on this forum--maybe both of us are wrong or we both are right on certain points.

I put my ass and wealth firmly in North America, or jokingly, put my money where my mouth is. I share those quotes from blah blah with you.

我还是选择把财产留在美国，因为这里有最自由的市场（不代表是绝对自由的市场），

这个国家保障我能方便安全地跟所谓的国家利益，美元霸权对着干，让我采去各种方法来保护我个人财富，这种自由法制是其他国家无法给我的。

如果在一些大政府的国家，连把钱汇出境外都麻烦得很，说得不好听出了什么问题连人带财出走的不便跟半个世纪以前没什么长进。

在这点上，美国与其他的法治国家显出了更大的自信，但是这种自信都是经过了很多崩溃、衰退、恐慌的前例建立起来的。

所以一个国家要成长，起码要崩溃衰退恐慌好几次。

衰落是必然的。1980s年代的时候，美国的许多公司办有很出色的食堂，可以随便吃，现在这样的公司还有几个？

1990s-2000s年代的时候,美国ITC产业造就了许多百万、亿万富翁，现在类似的新兴产业、类似的机会还有多少？尤其是在美国推出新技术，中国6个月就可以山寨的时代，超额利润的空间还有多大？

在泡沫经济时代，曼哈顿有些人打赏出租车司机的小费就有100美元。但那个时代美国的工作机会增加了多少？

美国就业机会的减少自80年代就开始了，一直没有扭转过。美国官方统计失业人数是1400万，按照旧统计方法调整过的实际失业人数是2500万。

什么叫福利制度？以纽约州为例，一个黑人单亲妈妈养3个小孩，长到18岁，国家要补贴3×1000×12×18=65万美元，这个单亲妈妈本人要花掉30万美元的补贴与医疗保险，然后她的3个孩子长大后2个进监狱，每人平均花费政府20万美元/年，加入蹲2年监狱，要花掉20×2×2=80万美元。这样一个家庭，不算教育开支，预计会造掉政府财政175万美元。

在一人一票的民主制度下，这样的人投票权增长得很快。美国的新出生婴儿中，白人比例已占绝对少数。你觉得他们维持得下去吗？我预计美国的民主制度还能再坚持至少一代人，但到不了2代人。一个非民主的美国，一个无力用福利制度安抚黑人和拉美裔的美国，你觉得比中国安全吗？

盎格鲁萨克森只是美帝的旧日徽标。现在美国的9大法官，3个犹太人6个天主教。这样的美国也配叫w-a-s-p?

这次要撼动的是美帝的根基：美元霸权。我从不认为美国会垮掉，但是美国的日子绝对会变得很难过。美帝二战以来大趋势是收缩的。苏联垮掉，美国的好日子也不过10年而已。

设想美国最希望垮掉的欧元垮掉了，美国的好日子能维持多久？欧元垮掉，德国人可以更肆无忌惮地拓展空间了。欧元垮掉，人民币也会被迫崛起。

funds. Chinese do not purchase treasury notes directly under their own name too.

The common sense is clear: Euro is not safe, so wthere will be flow back into US dollars.

成为资本的最后避险地，必须要货币自由兑换，必须是国际货币，必须是最强大的国家，这其实是废话，只有成为最强大的国家，其他一切都不是问题。

货币的自由兑换是最简单的，为什么人民币不自由兑换呢?一方面是因为人民币要建立相对的比较优势，一旦人民币自由兑换，国家的相对比较优势就丧失了，就永远也发展不起来；另一方面是要保持相对稳定的发展环境，外资的大进大出，必然引起市场大幅波动，影响生产和生活。

相对的比较优势，和稳定的发展环境，是人民币不可自由兑换的前提，如果中国的发展不需要这种比较优势，不担心发展环境不稳，人民币就可以自由兑换了。

不需要相对的比较优势，就要有绝对优势，而有绝对优势的国家，其货币才可能成为国际货币。到现在为止，中国的绝对优势只有生产规模，但没有整合的规模被人分而治之，铁矿石的进口就是最好的例证。

人民币的国际化，要以中国的绝对优势为基础，没有绝对优势，就没有话语权，没有定价权。中国的绝对优势将主要是最大的生产规模，最全的产业链，最大的市场，总的来说，中国的绝对优势是以国家为主体的。

成为最强大的国家是一切的根本，最强大的国家必然具备最大的绝对优势，美国人说，绝不当第二，几乎五倍于美国人口的中国人，难道只甘心做老二？

最后避险地，其实就是最安全的地方，自古以来就是最强者那里最安全。

Yeah Euro is definitely broken, even those who don't like USD can get that. Gold and silver are still good, but I'm not sure...maybe Dollar and Gold and Oil, the trilateral GOD can be ALL strong?

几点不成熟的想法：

是否可以干掉黄金？在现代社会，贮备黄金真的还有必要吗？

今后几年某些国家将会出现基础物资配机制，“凭票供应”

全球化、信息化+中国崛起，整个世界离计划经济/社会主义更近了

美国现在的当务之急就是千方百计把其他国家弄得比美国更糟，这是一个比烂的时代

从那时到2019会是他的下降期，但是不排除美国通过一系列的运作，重新走上一轮引领世界资本的上升期。而事实上，这个下降周期过了一半，美国做得还不错。在这个下降周期的剩下一半时间里，中国要加油了。

thumbs up!

想到一块儿去了. 兄台是高才啊!

一个一个地双边谈判会是个很漫长的过程，别人有足够的时间插手。

gold is the currency ever since there is human society. Paper money is not.

Gold is the best protection against political volatility and fiat money system collapse--for INDIVIDUALS.