主题：削足适履的中国人口政策 -- 唵啊吽

你如果能把它翻译出来就更好了

全世界没有一家成功让生育率回升到2.1的。等到时候就来不及了。

中国国籍大概是世界上最难加入的，建国几十年了也就几百人获得了中国国籍，他们大部分还是有中国血统的，比如我以前在福建工作时的一位同事，今年40多岁，她就是60年代东南亚排华的时候跟随父母回到中国后来成为中国公民的。

中国的移民机会受到压制是多年积贫积弱的结果。----我看是因为中国人口压力太大，人们太容易有移民倾向的原因。就算中国的经济实力再翻一番，也改变不了资源短缺的事实，也就改变不了人们容易有移民倾向的事实。

中国的人口实在不需担心，如果国家真正强大了，看看周围的国家，就南北朝鲜、越南，都是上亿的人口。其他缅甸、泰国、东南亚、世界范围的华侨，数量非常大。那里会有人口问题?

http://www.ctctc.cn/news-detail_315_1125_0.html

我国是煤炭资源最丰富的国家之一，目前已经探明的煤炭资源储量为世界第二。根据第三次全国煤田预测资料，除台湾省外，我国垂深２０００米以前的煤炭资源总量为５５６９７．４９亿吨。

国土资源部关于印发《全国矿产资源潜力评价总体实施方案》和《全国矿业权实地核查总体实施方案》的通知

http://www.clr.cn/front/read/read.asp?ID=168576

全国煤炭资源预测结果显示：截至1990年底，我国埋藏在2000m以浅的煤炭预测资源量共有53287亿吨。其中，按成煤条件有利程度可以划分为三类：Ⅰ类31960亿吨，Ⅱ类15144亿吨，Ⅲ类6183亿吨；按资源可靠程度可以划分为三级：E级（可靠级）17633亿吨，F级（可能级）22624亿吨，G级（推断级）13029亿吨；按资源埋藏深度统计则为：<600m的9971亿吨，<1000m的23276亿吨，<1500m的39009亿吨，<2000m的53287亿吨，1000m～2000m的29561亿吨。此外，还按不同成煤时代、按不同煤类、按不同聚煤区、按不同省区分别统计了预测资源量。

不用搞科学研究，不用技术发明。

靠寄生委降人口，到时候大家都可以发达了，可以做比尔盖茨了？

我看那时候连家园都保不住！拱手被别人（日本和印度）抢掉。

这不过是暂时的困难。何况现在已经可以解决，比如薄膜太阳能发电就没这个问题。

暂时的技术困难不过几年内解决，不可以拿来规划几十年后的事情。

太阳能利用问题解决了，你是不是几年内就转变观点。

照样不影响后来我们唐朝的辉煌。

每个民族总有倒霉的时候，也有辉煌的时候。

关键是倒霉的时候要撑的住，要有人口。

古埃及就没撑住，给换种了！

你怎么不按资源要求，去劝他们计划生育，减少一半人口，减少3/4人口。

他们减少到几百万都不过分，因为他们没资源，按照你的理解！

这个“国家”可不是所有人民的国家^^

It is the fact that the Catholic Church was totally helpless during the Black Death season. That fact shook people's faith in lots of beliefs and people started to seek alternative explanations.

the limited labor resource will push up china's labor rate and indirectly push China into a more tech-intensive growth pattern.

You live in Montreal, right?

North America, for more than 300 years, is short of labor. US is so devoted to new tech and machination because it is constantly short of labor (esp., skilled labor) in front of the large landmass. In the 19th century, the labor rate in States was constantly higher than in Europe. Europe was always richer with skilled labor than in States.

Whenever Europe was in turmoil and cut off labor export to America, American workers tended to enjoy big improvement in their pay. The most recent example is between 1938-1945, when war cut off labor import and there was big benefits to all american workers, including African Americans. US industrialists had long time bias against them in labor practice and then finally decided to employ them due to labor shortage.

Currently, Chinese capitalists can exploit Chinese colie with monthly 400RMB pay because Chinese are hard working and there is a labor oversupply. That problem will goes away in 10 years (assume the 6-8% GDP growth) and then China will enter labor shortage, at all levels.

Only labor shortage and thus labor rate increase will push the Chinese capitalists to treat labor well and use more automation technology to improve productivity. Back in 1990s, when Johnson & Johnson established its Shanghai JV to make Bandit--one step of automatic packaging by machine was replaced by young female workers. Their GM told me that it actually saved lots of money by de-automatization.

The reason is very simple: the pay rate is so low that the use of machine and automation is MORE COSTLY than using human beings.

In America, due to the high labor rate, we see constantly efforts to automate production process with machines--thus constant R&D effort in new tech. In China, you often see the opposite: HUMANIZATION OF THE former automatic production process.

China should be more like America than like India.

India is hopeless because capitalists have no incentive to invest in capital assets or R&D--the labor oversupply kills any such incentive.

人口问题影响到的人口民族结构问题才是最重要的。这个东西如果你不了解的话，真的有点无从谈起。