主题：【Reuters】格老警告美国人口老年化带来的负担 -- Chieftain

Greenspan warns on burden of ageing population

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo., Aug 27 (Reuters)

Published: August 27 2004 16:06

Rising pressure on US finances from an aging population makes it vital to quickly fix the social safety net with such steps as raising the age for full retirement benefits, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday.

“If we have promised more than our economy has the ability to deliver to retirees without unduly diminishing real income gains of workers, as I fear we may have, we must recalibrate our public programs so that pending retirees have time to adjust through other channels,” Greenspan said in prepared remarks at an annual symposium. “If we delay, the adjustments could be abrupt and painful.”

The Fed chief said raising payroll taxes to fund shortfalls in Social Security and Medicare might only worsen the situation by imposing an extra burden on workers. He said altering policy to encourage a longer working life for Americans would help.

Greenspan made no mention of current economic conditions or interest-rate policy in his address to the group of central bankers, academics and economists gathered in at a mountain retreat in Wyoming.

This year’s topic for the annual Jackson Hole symposium is the impact of demographics -- specifically aging populations -- on the global economy.

Greenspan said the United States, which has been relatively open to immigration, is in a better position than some other countries, particularly if American policy-makers and politicians face the need to reform entitlement programs.

“Though the challenges of prospective increasingly stark choices for the United States seem great, the necessary adjustments will likely be smaller than those required in most other developed nations,” Greenspan said.

He said falling birth rates mean population growth in Europe and Japan “have fallen far short of the replacement rate” -- the birth rate needed to keep the population constant in the absence of immigration or changes in lifespans. A potential doubling of the over-65 U.S. population by 2035 will put substantial pressure on U.S. budget deficits and it is important to consider how to deal with the issue to protect the overall economy.

“Financing expected future shortfalls in entitlement trust funds solely through increased payroll taxes would likely exacerbate the problem of reductions in labor supply by diminishing returns to work,” Greenspan warned. He said it would be preferable for Americans to work longer.

“Changes to the age for receiving full retirement benefits or initiatives to slow the growth of Medicare spending could affect retirement decisions, the size of the labor force and saving behavior,” Greenspan said, leaving no doubt that was his preferred option.

不过我真心想请教老龄化对中国今后十、二十年经济的影响，会不会是个很大的未知数啊？中国政府这方面比美国政府准备得差远了。

这不养的老人比较少么？

继续占坑贡献，老年化的威胁不愁应付不了。

不过按照现在的人口政策，到了2030年就麻烦了，到了2050年就彻底破产了，呵呵

奇迹很大程度上是由于劳动力人口占全部人口的比例较高，即所谓的labour dividend。中国的经济高速增长，如油油所言，15-20年的远景繁荣是可期的，如果社会稳定的话。要吸取的教训是东南亚和拉美模式的缺陷--财富分配不均。我们的执政方针也要从让少数人先富起来，向大家共同富裕的目标转化。9月底即将召开的16届4中全会会重点讨论如何加强共产党执政能力，愚以为不能实现共同富裕的话，共产党的执政基石只会削弱，不会加强。建党近80周年了，执政近60年，也该是到了生死攸关的大坎。

所以中国现在除了搞养老保险也放弃医疗资助，老了?自己搞定吧。

我看等养独生子的一代老化中国的社会观念大概会变化很大。具体如何就不知道了，我看以现在的教育与认识的独生子女，中国老人只有靠自己了。

城市这种倒金字塔型恐怕不能用25%做标准吧。

油油的意思是趁2050年没到玩命生，还是在那之前把老的都掐死？

西方还不一样，胡子比我要清楚，爹妈有个病痛，那还不是做子女的掏钱，有时亲戚朋友什么的都能拉上。这个叫孝心和人情味，西方没有这个文化传统，凡是都是靠商业化解决。在此优劣不做评价，只是强调我们的系统有缓冲，情况严峻，但不象想象的那么坏，要有信心在发展中解决问题，不要轻易唱衰，或是自己吓自己。

大学图书馆里的中国人口统计年鉴应该有这些数据。不过，如果考虑到中国人口的流动越来越大，越来越容易，地区间的人口年龄结构差距应该不会太大。而城乡是一个比较有意思的故事，一方面，农村的出生率高于城市，人口老龄化进程慢于城市，而另一方面，大量的农村青壮年进城工作，又加速农村的老龄化进程，减缓城市的老龄化进程。农村和城市那个老龄化进程更快，就要看哪个方面占主导地位。

从经济学的角度看，人口年龄结构是纺锤型最佳，倒三角次之，正三角再次之，呵呵

玩命生显然不可能，没老死，先饿死了，呵呵。如首长同志说的那样，适当放宽人口政策是目前一个比较对头的政策。人口年龄结构的调整是一个较长的过程，只要保持较为清醒地认识应该不是太大的问题。当然现在不重视，以后就是个大问题。

老龄化还和人的平均寿命有很大的关系，也许再过几十年退休年龄会推迟到65岁或70岁，60岁还能算中年，呵呵。

这个问题展开的话，又要说到制度上去了，呵呵。嗯，中国是到了共同富裕的时候了，否则经济的高速发展，反而会进一步拉大贫富差距，增加社会的不稳定性。希望中国能够抓住这一二十年的时间，走上全民富裕之路。