主题：【求助】中国经济已经负增长？ -- 正确
告诉你中国的一切数据都是假的
验算了一下，全部正确，加10分
花
美国统计“偏重消费”、中国统计“偏重生产”，统计方法确实不同。
罗奇倒是用了“季节修正后的环比”，所以也不算太错。只不过他的“季节修正”就又要引进新的统计模型了。至于模型与实际有多大关系，就不知道了。
所以才对罗奇的话感到莫名奇妙啊。现在的分析师都玩神秘，欲言又止的。
比如年底新增了一些漏报的增加值
现在美国房贷还是打包销售的，所以所有房贷有个现行的市场价。因为这个价格大大低于以前的价格，那些持有以前的房贷债权的机构需要记录坏账，银行也就造成大量亏损。
中国没有房贷打包，没有房贷债权市场，坏账统计自然也就大大低于美国。银行不统计潜在房贷亏损，亏损额也就看起来小很多。
这些都是些小分析师当前的私下嘀咕而已。
华尔街早晚要大肆攻击中国的上司银行的坏账问题，不过那要等到美国人再次有钱强买一批中国的银行以后。这种情况，说不定这世纪都没有希望看到了。
二季度有夏粮，四季度有秋粮。而中国没有休假制度，所以不象西方夏天假期消费也不多，再加上去年有个奥运，华北，特别是北京惨了去了。
当然，由于经济活动的季节性特征，这个环比必须是进行季节调整后的数据。
由于四季度经济失速过快，季节调整后的四季度
GDP较三季度环比下降的可能性是存在的。
原始数据直接计算环比增速是荒谬的。不信，请再算算08年一季度对07年四季度的环比
查了一下最早出处是Roubini这老匹夫。
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQmmms3xufOc
里面说的就是环比：
“China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, wrote in a note today on his Web site. “When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading.”
Unlike the U.S. and western Europe, China’s figures on gross domestic product measure growth from the same quarter a year ago rather than the previous three months. The year-on-year figures fail to capture the economy’s slowdown at the end of 2008 because growth was so high in the preceding quarters, Roubini wrote
我发现只要是涉及到中国，不管什么本来多严谨的学者都要失常。你说中国环比下降，起码也要算一下吧。你不算，也不能上来说recession啊，按照西方定义那个是要连续两季下降啊。
一个是首付高，一个是中国人不习惯借债，那个不是省吃俭用要提前还贷。美国人，一个把房子当提款机，原来十几万买的房子，现在债务能搞到半个million。 我的老美同事都语重心长的教育我，这房贷要keep到死，这个观念那个中国人能接受。
至于他们在忽悠中国的坏账，这次应该不会上当了吧。上次把中国人骗惨了。有意思的是，奥黑的解决银行问题的法子也是和土共一样，剥离坏账，好公司上市。听到这消息，没把我乐死。当然了奥黑还要装的很原创的样子。西方经济学已经走入死胡同成了形式逻辑游戏了。现在要找解决办法就要从土共身上学习。
如果中国科技工业将来上去的话，估计老美也要搞什么８６３，９７５，组织科技攻关了。
前几天看到的一篇网志，不知楼主有没看过：
The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%
The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.
When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.
Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.
Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.
And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recession
So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.
纠正一点：俺的偶像Roubini不是老匹夫，人家还是青葱大叔呢。有片片为证：（我是不是很八卦？
）
如果您做不到这一点，是无法反驳别人的。