主题：【原创】熊猫闲拍郎咸平 -- evilpanda

http://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongji/tongjishuju/gofile.asp?file=2008S03.htm

中国人民银行的月度报表，各项存款减去财政和机关团体，就是40万亿。

已经很明确地告诉过你，乘数效应只能事后观察，谁那么大能能够准确预测就肯定是在忽悠。

要是现在还在干清算就大发了……

结果进了金融业就来个金融海啸

铜布线，巨磁阻硬盘的技术什么的开始都是IBM做的，IBM的实验室诺贝尔奖就好几个。

但到了产品这个层次IBM就不行了。小企业擅长将新技术转化为产品。但不擅长从科学转化为技术。道理很简单，没那么多钱。

不该用management accounting来解释的，直接上宏观经济数据好了。不能贴图，直接上数据表

这是从CEIC挖来的2000年以来全国出口（左）入口（右）3个月移动平均增长率。这两数据基本上一直都是同步进退的，直到2004年底开始入口开始有缺口一直到2007年底才开始重新交集,入口值才开始追上来

Jan, 2000 26.18% 29.99%

Feb, 2000 28.11% 35.76%

Mar, 2000 39.37% 44.09%

Apr, 2000 36.42% 36.94%

May, 2000 34.78% 27.00%

Jun, 2000 37.81% 32.30%

Jul, 2000 32.90% 34.73%

Aug, 2000 32.14% 44.85%

Sep, 2000 25.04% 43.48%

Oct, 2000 25.34% 42.58%

Nov, 2000 20.82% 33.71%

Dec, 2000 15.75% 29.43%

Jan, 2001 7.73% 17.60%

Feb, 2001 13.10% 20.18%

Mar, 2001 15.22% 18.09%

Apr, 2001 18.63% 23.83%

May, 2001 9.83% 15.54%

Jun, 2001 4.68% 11.55%

Jul, 2001 3.17% 7.69%

Aug, 2001 2.31% 6.28%

Sep, 2001 3.96% 6.55%

Oct, 2001 1.80% 3.97%

Nov, 2001 4.27% 0.53%

Dec, 2001 6.62% 0.22%

Jan, 2002 16.00% 7.64%

Feb, 2002 13.12% 4.64%

Mar, 2002 10.28% 5.87%

Apr, 2002 6.62% 4.46%

May, 2002 12.86% 15.10%

Jun, 2002 17.82% 15.25%

Jul, 2002 21.28% 18.91%

Aug, 2002 23.49% 20.07%

Sep, 2002 28.57% 29.30%

Oct, 2002 29.82% 30.80%

Nov, 2002 31.48% 35.83%

Dec, 2002 30.52% 33.16%

Jan, 2003 32.46% 43.23%

Feb, 2003 31.71% 47.07%

Mar, 2003 33.24% 52.55%

Apr, 2003 31.94% 42.84%

May, 2003 35.11% 40.00%

Jun, 2003 34.38% 38.42%

Jul, 2003 33.44% 38.73%

Aug, 2003 30.03% 34.19%

Sep, 2003 29.67% 34.12%

Oct, 2003 31.73% 35.58%

Nov, 2003 33.97% 35.95%

Dec, 2003 40.40% 38.47%

Jan, 2004 34.82% 30.32%

Feb, 2004 36.77% 46.44%

Mar, 2004 34.16% 44.83%

Apr, 2004 38.28% 53.99%

May, 2004 35.92% 40.18%

Jun, 2004 37.12% 42.82%

Jul, 2004 37.63% 39.96%

Aug, 2004 39.23% 40.03%

Sep, 2004 34.75% 30.54%

Oct, 2004 32.92% 28.86%

Nov, 2004 35.76% 29.80%

Dec, 2004 35.65% 30.64%

Jan, 2005 40.24% 28.89%

Feb, 2005 34.82% 14.44%

Mar, 2005 34.83% 12.56%

Apr, 2005 31.42% 10.14%

May, 2005 31.62% 17.01%

Jun, 2005 30.91% 15.96%

Jul, 2005 29.81% 14.56%

Aug, 2005 30.76% 17.10%

Sep, 2005 29.14% 19.62%

Oct, 2005 29.50% 23.30%

Nov, 2005 24.65% 22.52%

Dec, 2005 22.14% 22.16%

Jan, 2006 21.60% 22.82%

Feb, 2006 22.83% 25.68%

Mar, 2006 26.16% 25.38%

Apr, 2006 24.75% 22.09%

May, 2006 25.72% 19.45%

Jun, 2006 24.07% 18.60%

Jul, 2006 23.64% 19.89%

Aug, 2006 26.16% 20.87%

Sep, 2006 28.58% 21.93%

Oct, 2006 30.89% 20.36%

Nov, 2006 30.90% 18.26%

Dec, 2006 28.98% 15.46%

Jan, 2007 30.26% 19.73%

Feb, 2007 36.59% 17.95%

Mar, 2007 30.63% 18.28%

Apr, 2007 28.42% 16.20%

May, 2007 20.73% 18.28%

Jun, 2007 27.43% 18.21%

Jul, 2007 29.92% 20.10%

Aug, 2007 27.93% 20.40%

Sep, 2007 26.52% 20.98%

Oct, 2007 22.56% 20.50%

Nov, 2007 22.57% 22.24%

Dec, 2007 22.18% 25.40%

Jan, 2008 23.63% 26.07%

Feb, 2008 18.20% 29.35%

Mar, 2008 21.21% 29.13%

Apr, 2008 19.62% 28.83%

May, 2008 26.84% 30.50%

Jun, 2008 22.53% 32.62%

Jul, 2008 24.21% 34.96%

Aug, 2008 21.89% 29.24%

Sep, 2008 23.09% 25.80%

这是第二组数据。总原材料Primary goods入口增长率和Seconday goods manufactured goods制成品3月移动平均同比年增长率。

对比一下上边的总入口增长率，转折点也是在2004年。制成品入口突然就给原料拉下了。

Jan, 2000 56.32% 25.01%

Feb, 2000 82.64% 26.81%

Mar, 2000 96.25% 34.01%

Apr, 2000 88.04% 27.26%

May, 2000 62.48% 20.35%

Jun, 2000 66.38% 26.18%

Jul, 2000 79.92% 27.08%

Aug, 2000 98.70% 35.28%

Sep, 2000 97.72% 33.47%

Oct, 2000 82.56% 34.31%

Nov, 2000 64.29% 27.24%

Dec, 2000 53.67% 24.27%

Jan, 2001 29.60% 15.12%

Feb, 2001 14.35% 22.31%

Mar, 2001 0.79% 23.09%

Apr, 2001 11.62% 27.55%

May, 2001 15.02% 15.88%

Jun, 2001 19.05% 9.76%

Jul, 2001 9.32% 7.40%

Aug, 2001 -0.82% 8.37%

Sep, 2001 -7.35% 10.43%

Oct, 2001 -12.00% 8.45%

Nov, 2001 -14.71% 4.66%

Dec, 2001 -15.42% 4.34%

Jan, 2002 -8.57% 11.71%

Feb, 2002 -9.87% 8.15%

Mar, 2002 -7.21% 8.90%

Apr, 2002 -11.86% 8.51%

May, 2002 -5.55% 20.31%

Jun, 2002 -6.54% 20.81%

Jul, 2002 0.09% 23.53%

Aug, 2002 6.81% 23.24%

Sep, 2002 15.74% 32.46%

Oct, 2002 20.04% 33.23%

Nov, 2002 28.41% 37.51%

Dec, 2002 29.44% 33.95%

Jan, 2003 48.25% 42.23%

Feb, 2003 58.70% 44.78%

Mar, 2003 71.35% 48.85%

Apr, 2003 61.92% 39.11%

May, 2003 55.34% 37.03%

Jun, 2003 51.75% 35.81%

Jul, 2003 45.90% 37.33%

Aug, 2003 38.22% 33.37%

Sep, 2003 39.22% 33.11%

Oct, 2003 38.37% 35.03%

Nov, 2003 35.46% 36.11%

Dec, 2003 37.90% 38.64%

Jan, 2004 39.85% 28.28%

Feb, 2004 65.76% 42.16%

Mar, 2004 64.49% 40.36%

Apr, 2004 72.03% 49.87%

May, 2004 60.12% 35.82%

Jun, 2004 69.44% 37.01%

Jul, 2004 69.16% 33.80%

Aug, 2004 64.37% 34.85%

Sep, 2004 48.51% 26.76%

Oct, 2004 50.86% 24.47%

Nov, 2004 62.95% 23.25%

Dec, 2004 67.30% 23.33%

Jan, 2005 52.18% 24.14%

Feb, 2005 25.20% 12.00%

Mar, 2005 18.89% 10.96%

Apr, 2005 20.86% 7.35%

May, 2005 29.91% 13.67%

Jun, 2005 26.33% 13.18%

Jul, 2005 27.25% 11.26%

Aug, 2005 28.96% 14.11%

Sep, 2005 32.95% 16.31%

Oct, 2005 34.88% 20.40%

Nov, 2005 29.28% 20.82%

Dec, 2005 26.29% 21.12%

Jan, 2006 28.81% 21.15%

Feb, 2006 35.23% 22.96%

Mar, 2006 38.28% 21.71%

Apr, 2006 30.15% 19.74%

May, 2006 28.12% 16.90%

Jun, 2006 27.02% 16.05%

Jul, 2006 26.74% 17.81%

Aug, 2006 30.16% 18.24%

Sep, 2006 30.93% 19.47%

Oct, 2006 27.11% 18.54%

Nov, 2006 19.83% 17.86%

Dec, 2006 13.26% 16.11%

Jan, 2007 18.60% 20.12%

Feb, 2007 14.97% 18.91%

Mar, 2007 15.55% 19.18%

Apr, 2007 17.31% 15.87%

May, 2007 21.16% 17.35%

Jun, 2007 22.11% 16.94%

Jul, 2007 26.57% 18.09%

Aug, 2007 28.30% 17.95%

Sep, 2007 29.30% 18.41%

Oct, 2007 31.51% 17.39%

Nov, 2007 38.94% 17.59%

Dec, 2007 52.41% 17.97%

Jan, 2008 56.82% 17.04%

Feb, 2008 68.68% 17.40%

Mar, 2008 71.17% 15.88%

Apr, 2008 69.31% 15.92%

May, 2008 68.89% 17.71%

Jun, 2008 70.18% 19.67%

Jul, 2008 75.73% 20.74%

Aug, 2008 70.21% 15.00%

Sep, 2008 67.23% 11.76%

数可以贴错，这么荒谬的结论也是转贴错的吗？

想挑战专家权威，很不错，可也得先做好自身的准备呀。前面河友lucre88说你“拍狼你还未够班”是很有道理的，像俺这种一知半解的都看出你的基本概念和逻辑错误百出，真的明白人就更懒得来凑热闹了。最后你的楼中只剩下口水，西西河缺水吗？

gxgx:)

做产品利润少少的，拼不过人家。

小企业的生存之道是差异化竞争。为什么一定要去做别人做过的东西呢？

flickr是俺们加拿大的东西，办公地点就在俺们下城。

这是全国进口的manufactured goods 价值分类百份比。

从左起，化工产品，制成品， 重型机械，和其余

Jan, 2000 17.43% 24.23% 49.04% 7.70%

Feb, 2000 17.64% 22.86% 51.42% 6.91%

Mar, 2000 18.07% 23.38% 50.73% 6.90%

Apr, 2000 17.82% 24.30% 50.19% 6.98%

May, 2000 17.02% 24.90% 50.48% 6.90%

Jun, 2000 15.60% 23.93% 51.72% 6.77%

Jul, 2000 16.40% 24.32% 51.41% 7.16%

Aug, 2000 16.90% 23.62% 51.83% 7.10%

Sep, 2000 17.09% 22.48% 52.19% 7.56%

Oct, 2000 17.40% 16.38% 51.91% 7.06%

Nov, 2000 16.29% 22.27% 53.15% 7.54%

Dec, 2000 16.34% 22.35% 53.20% 7.18%

Jan, 2001 16.12% 20.54% 55.49% 7.05%

Feb, 2001 15.95% 21.50% 54.36% 7.70%

Mar, 2001 16.88% 22.42% 52.51% 7.04%

Apr, 2001 16.67% 21.74% 53.31% 7.47%

May, 2001 16.66% 23.05% 52.41% 7.36%

Jun, 2001 15.85% 22.10% 53.89% 7.79%

Jul, 2001 16.37% 21.37% 53.79% 8.00%

Aug, 2001 16.04% 20.30% 55.16% 7.93%

Sep, 2001 16.89% 20.09% 54.44% 7.58%

Oct, 2001 16.47% 20.26% 54.19% 7.85%

Nov, 2001 15.62% 21.36% 53.65% 8.10%

Dec, 2001 15.51% 19.92% 55.73% 7.90%

Jan, 2002 16.42% 20.52% 54.60% 7.55%

Feb, 2002 16.84% 19.44% 55.60% 7.75%

Mar, 2002 17.02% 20.93% 53.40% 7.65%

Apr, 2002 17.44% 20.09% 53.93% 8.00%

May, 2002 16.95% 21.43% 53.10% 7.90%

Jun, 2002 15.32% 21.72% 54.11% 8.01%

Jul, 2002 14.84% 21.29% 54.98% 7.97%

Aug, 2002 15.85% 20.65% 54.85% 8.09%

Sep, 2002 15.58% 18.33% 57.29% 8.29%

Oct, 2002 15.19% 18.12% 57.79% 8.34%

Nov, 2002 14.83% 16.91% 59.69% 8.05%

Dec, 2002 15.14% 18.30% 57.62% 8.57%

Jan, 2003 16.30% 18.80% 56.53% 8.12%

Feb, 2003 16.39% 19.51% 55.19% 8.41%

Mar, 2003 15.54% 19.19% 55.92% 8.72%

Apr, 2003 14.62% 19.47% 56.17% 9.18%

May, 2003 14.32% 20.64% 55.07% 9.69%

Jun, 2003 13.58% 20.54% 56.03% 9.58%

Jul, 2003 13.64% 19.39% 57.00% 9.67%

Aug, 2003 14.40% 18.20% 57.30% 9.71%

Sep, 2003 13.80% 17.22% 58.63% 9.99%

Oct, 2003 13.79% 17.74% 57.55% 10.56%

Nov, 2003 14.03% 17.97% 56.84% 10.82%

Dec, 2003 13.67% 17.85% 57.25% 10.89%

Jan, 2004 15.40% 17.93% 55.70% 10.74%

Feb, 2004 15.59% 18.34% 55.03% 10.73%

Mar, 2004 14.59% 18.37% 55.43% 11.08%

Apr, 2004 13.80% 18.61% 55.81% 11.44%

May, 2004 13.87% 16.91% 56.99% 11.88%

Jun, 2004 14.23% 17.35% 56.43% 11.71%

Jul, 2004 14.31% 16.40% 57.11% 11.80%

Aug, 2004 15.02% 15.28% 58.03% 11.34%

Sep, 2004 15.04% 14.92% 58.44% 11.26%

Oct, 2004 15.28% 14.67% 58.31% 11.40%

Nov, 2004 15.62% 15.55% 57.45% 11.08%

Dec, 2004 15.12% 16.38% 57.23% 10.93%

Jan, 2005 16.38% 16.67% 55.43% 11.11%

Feb, 2005 16.21% 15.93% 56.43% 10.98%

Mar, 2005 16.99% 17.07% 54.27% 11.06%

Apr, 2005 16.41% 17.06% 55.16% 10.71%

May, 2005 15.55% 17.90% 55.02% 11.16%

Jun, 2005 15.38% 17.64% 55.46% 11.12%

Jul, 2005 15.63% 16.25% 55.90% 11.89%

Aug, 2005 14.85% 15.03% 57.41% 12.39%

Sep, 2005 15.22% 14.91% 57.21% 12.36%

Oct, 2005 13.82% 14.28% 58.49% 13.11%

Nov, 2005 13.40% 14.52% 58.79% 12.94%

Dec, 2005 13.27% 13.88% 59.75% 12.84%

Jan, 2006 14.94% 13.43% 58.59% 12.75%

Feb, 2006 14.50% 13.77% 59.01% 12.39%

Mar, 2006 14.08% 14.02% 59.39% 12.17%

Apr, 2006 14.48% 14.35% 59.16% 11.72%

May, 2006 14.27% 14.96% 58.42% 12.04%

Jun, 2006 14.62% 15.64% 58.35% 11.06%

Jul, 2006 14.13% 14.74% 59.39% 11.41%

Aug, 2006 14.99% 14.91% 58.27% 11.51%

Sep, 2006 14.51% 13.67% 59.83% 11.48%

Oct, 2006 13.40% 13.95% 60.40% 11.91%

Nov, 2006 14.08% 14.02% 59.69% 11.89%

Dec, 2006 14.79% 14.89% 58.47% 11.57%

Jan, 2007 15.57% 14.67% 57.95% 11.44%

Feb, 2007 15.49% 14.81% 58.14% 11.36%

Mar, 2007 15.79% 15.74% 57.12% 10.99%

Apr, 2007 15.73% 16.22% 56.65% 11.12%

May, 2007 15.74% 15.91% 56.05% 11.96%

Jun, 2007 15.33% 15.46% 56.90% 12.00%

Jul, 2007 14.89% 14.44% 57.99% 12.41%

Aug, 2007 15.03% 13.58% 58.41% 12.66%

Sep, 2007 14.51% 12.81% 59.73% 12.58%

Oct, 2007 14.13% 13.30% 58.58% 13.67%

Nov, 2007 14.66% 13.52% 58.64% 12.68%

Dec, 2007 14.37% 13.33% 58.50% 13.37%

Jan, 2008 16.01% 14.28% 55.87% 13.48%

Feb, 2008 15.39% 14.54% 56.17% 13.37%

Mar, 2008 15.66% 14.42% 56.33% 13.13%

Apr, 2008 15.93% 14.52% 55.66% 13.08%

May, 2008 15.70% 14.53% 55.80% 13.31%

Jun, 2008 16.61% 13.45% 57.00% 12.59%

Jul, 2008 17.15% 13.92% 56.18% 12.38%

Aug, 2008 15.21% 13.07% 58.93% 12.36%

Sep, 2008 15.27% 13.22% 58.90% 12.06%

从表中数据可以看到中国的净出口加速是因为进口的减速。入口的减速来自於制造业货品的减少，制造业货品入口里面减少得最快的，是工业制成品。

啥时候开始的，2004年左右。

为什么会减少，因为国货替代了。

为啥国货会替代，因为有成本优势。

为啥有成本优势，生产规模扩大,单位成本下降。

(也就是郎所说的产能过剩）。

您这分析能力，兄弟我佩服得实在是不想批评你的小学老师。

算乐，这是安掺合您的最后一贴。

楼主认为海尔联想等名牌企业破产才叫倒闭，几万家中小企业（包括少量上市公司）倒闭不叫大量倒闭？楼主不明白中小企业对就业的重要性？

But it is not my mistake to confuse the two...