主题：【原创】2008美国政治经济学（一） -- 铁手

按照我的理解，两房不是空债券，而是有房屋抵押的。虽然现在房价有下降，房子毕竟还是有价值。两房面临的问题无非是资金流转的问题。资金流转出现问题的时候，也因而影响到抵押贷款的运转，导致更多的人没有能力买房，负反馈继续下去，就越来越糟糕。

即使有股票，也只能是优先股，不会是公众股。

在这一次的次贷危机中，中国的银行受到的影响要小很多。

中国所持有的债券，到期了，连本带利都回来了。美国政府即使不接管两房，这些债券也是要被偿还的。

现在的接管，无非是给那些减持的国家一些信心，好继续购买两房的债券。

受益的是债券持有者，倒霉的是股票持有者。

俄罗斯就是这样的减持方式。

两房的债券有几年的，也有几个月的。

如果是市场上卖掉来减持的话，那就不知道了。我看到的资料是有很多美国的金融机构卖掉优先股来减持优先股的。

按照之前油价猛涨的做法，Gustav是油价反弹相当好的题材，不料却应声下跌，理由竟然是对墨西哥湾的石油作业造成的影响比预期的小。看来小树丛是准备把油价就势做下去了，又一轮搞白熊和蓝驴的行动开始了。

资本必然追求高额利润，至于风险，宏观上来说几乎是无所谓的，只有在微观中才会考虑风险，既然资本已经渗透到全世界，拆东墙补西墙就是对冲风险的最好办法，接下来大家就可以创造可怕的利润了。

Everybody is waiting for the election result.

Our clients, Canadian energy giants, are watching the game closely. Some of our projects have already passed Gate 1 and 2. The approval for Gate 3 or so called Detail Engineering for above jobs has been hold for weeks. I have a reasonable doubt that the election result will influence the Canadian Oil Sands development very significantly.

Statement in Response to the Washington Post article of 21st August 2008

The article states that "by June 6...Vitol had acquired a huge holding in oil contracts, betting prices would rise. The contracts were equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil." It goes on to say that crude prices spiked $11 that day.

This description of Vitol's position and its implied relation to oil price movements is fundamentally incorrect.

The Vitol Group's net crude futures position on the main international exchanges on 6th of June was in fact short eleven million barrels. This short position reflects the Group's extensive use of the exchanges for managing price risk on the physical oil it supplies, as is standard practice throughout the oil industry.

The Vitol Group regularly ships over four million barrels of physical crude oil and petroleum products each day to international markets.

因为以前在网上看到有人说中国政府和银行机构持有的两房债券成了垃圾，说这一次是大大的亏损了，我还有点郁闷呢，想想那么多外汇储备，拿出来搞点投资总是不顺呢。

欧洲这里准备砸锅卖铁的公司就多了，欧洲人在可替代能源上投入可大了，这下子。。。

相当大部分的两房债券都在美国大金融机构或者旗下的投资基金手上，两房的资金运转不灵对整个金融体系是极大的打击。