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European Economy Probably Expanded in Fourth Quarter (Update2)

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The economy of the dozen euro nations probably expanded for a second quarter in the three months through December as growth in the U.S. and Asia helped exporters cope with the currency's 17 percent climb against the dollar in the past year, a survey of economists showed.

The euro economy may have grown 0.4 percent from the previous three months, the same pace as in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year ago, the growth rate probably accelerated to 0.7 percent from 0.3 percent, the survey showed.

Global growth is fueling a recovery across the euro region's $9 trillion economy after a contraction in the second quarter. Exporters including Siemens AG, Germany's biggest electronics company, have said their earnings forecasts assume there will be no renewed surge in the euro's value this year.

``The exchange rate will have a delayed effect, which will feel much stronger in the second half'' of this year, said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt, which expects the euro to rise to $1.38 by the end of the year. ``The strong euro is being overcome by global trade, though it certainly has a damping impact.''

The dollar fell against the euro today on speculation U.S. interest rates will stay lower than those in Europe, undermining European ministers' efforts at a weekend Group of Seven meeting to curb the euro's increase. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.2737 at 8:27 a.m. in Frankfurt.

G-7 Statement

G-7 finance ministers and central bank heads meeting in Boca Raton, Florida, said exchange rates should be flexible and avoid ``excess volatility.'' By including the phrase in their statement, the ministers endorsed the comments of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who has said the euro's increase may damp demand for exports which led the euro economy back to growth in the second half of last year.

The European Union's statistics office, Eurostat, will release its first estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services, at noon on Friday. The report is based on figures from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands to be released in coming days.

Germany, Europe's biggest economy, may have grown by 0.3 percent in the quarter, the median forecast of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey showed, accelerating from 0.2 percent growth in the third quarter. The Federal Statistics Office will release that report on Thursday. Germany's economy is recovering from a recession in the first half of 2003.

France, Italy

France's economy probably expanded 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months and grew at the same pace from the year-ago quarter, the median of 26 estimates showed. That also represents an acceleration from the previous three months, when GDP expanded at a 0.4 percent pace.

In Italy, where industrial production has been hampered by strikes against government plans to overhaul the pension system, the pace of quarterly growth may have slowed to 0.3 percent in the final three months of last year from 0.5 percent in the third quarter, a survey of 26 economists showed.

France, Germany and the Netherlands release their reports on Thursday morning and Italy's statistics office publishes fourth- quarter GDP at 10:30 a.m. on Friday.

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, predicts growth of 1.8 percent for the euro region this year after 0.4 percent expansion last year. That compares with the 3.8 percent expansion the commission forecasts for the U.S. this year.

Lagging U.S.

``The overall outlook is definitely looking up, even though Europe remains slow compared with what one sees in the U.S.,'' said Rajeev Demello, who manages the equivalent of $6.7 billion in European bonds at Pictet & Cie. in Geneva.

Europe is relying on exports to drive growth as unemployment at a four-year high prompts shoppers to keep a rein on spending. European consumer confidence stagnated for a third month in January and German joblessness rose for the first month in eight the same month.

``Domestic demand is wobbly and weak,'' said Dresdner's Guntermann. ``The consumer is still worried about future employment and income.''

Economic reports last week added to evidence that the euro region's economy is expanding. Services, the largest part of the economy, grew for a seventh month in January and a gauge of manufacturing rose to the highest in three years.

Accelerating

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's second-largest luxury carmaker, said on Friday sales in Asia rose to a record last year. Dassault Systemes SA, the world's biggest maker of design software, predicts sales in the U.S. will increase 15 percent this year.

The commission on Jan. 15 raised its estimate of fourth- quarter growth for the euro region by 0.1 percentage point to between 0.3 percent and 0.7 percent. It predicts the same range of quarterly GDP growth for the first quarter of this year.

The ECB, which left its benchmark rate at a half-century low of 2 percent on Thursday, said consumer spending should increase as the euro's gains reduce the cost of imports, leaving them with more money to spend on other products.

``The economic recovery in the euro area should continue to develop in line with our expectations,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt on Thursday. The ECB expects growth in the euro region to accelerate to about 1.6 percent this year.

Investors expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged until the fourth quarter, futures trading suggests. The rate on the three- month contract for December settlement was at 2.38 percent at 8:22 a.m. in Frankfurt, compared with a current rate of 2.08 percent.