主题：【原创】全球熊市的开始：DOW大跌超过400点 -- 倥偬飞人
家园 谁来说说日本的反应 日本怪怪的：日本政府计划从2008年1月起免征外国投资者持有的日本地方公债的利息税。该消息在日元升值的预期下，可能引发买入日元购买日本债券的潮流。
大家讨论一下日本想干什么。
家园 【文摘】乐一乐：用发散思维解释房屋贷款问题 http://mitbbs.com/article_t/SanFrancisco/18043724.html
conspire theory of subprime issuesince us army needs people desperately.
since once you are at army, your house can not be forclosured(evicted).
bush administration may try this way to get more ppl to iraq, knowing subprime are maily minority such as latino.
家园 Bear Market? Not Yet I am not convinced the bear market has started. There will be a bear market sometime down the road but not this year probably not next year. I will lay out my reasons:
valuation for most of the markets are in line with historical means. Even for market like China, while valuation is high(pe ~30), it is not a bubble(last time when Shanghai market collapsed, it is selling around 70 times earning). Given the strong growth worldwide outside US, fundamental for stocks are still good. Also for US, we are at the end of the tightening cycle. The FED is highly unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively. This spells good for stocks.
Technically the up trend has been broken for most of the indices. But we are not in the down trend yet. The market is testing its support and the support still holds.
Sentimentally, when you see amateurs bragging how they make a killing short stocks and how they have learned their lesson from past bear markets, I feel more relaxed. This is probably not true for Chinese market. Look at how active people are discussing chinese market here.
My guess is we are now in a correction but when the year ends, S&P 500 will make an all time high.
家园 我是看空的,除了飞人的启发外,还有一些自己的理由. 中国的市场马上就要有个巨大的调整(20%),我不知道一个月还是三个月或是半年,但有太多的危险迹象了:
1).几乎所有的上市公司今年都业绩提高50%,这在现代经济社会几乎是不可能的.因此现在的P/E水分是很大的,多半是为了陪合各路好汉(庄家和大非)出货搞出来的.
2)新基金几乎成了新股,买新基金需要排队?100亿的基金发行只要一小时? 这种热度在任何股市都不可能长久.说实在的,2000年的NASDAQ几乎是全世界的钱在美国炒,好象也没热到这程度.
3)有各种把房产证60%搞成现金去炒股的报道,如果是三五千人这样做还好说,如果是几十万人的话,历史上这种钱就没赢过!
4)大股东和管理层出货很厉害.
5)我现在没去散户大厅看过,国内的河友可以去看看.如果那里已经挤的水泄不通,那就是到顶了. 人都到齐了,你总不能等到挤死了人才出吧?
国内的总流通值是4万亿?每天1500亿就是二十多天换手一次.有心的和友可以把这个数值和历史上到顶时的数据比较一下,我猜是差不了太多了.