主题：特斯拉究竟是在做什么？ -- 大山猫
- 复 触目惊心啊
家园 新能源汽车对于美国来说，必须成功 I am not surprised by his conclusion.
you can sense a slow formation of political consensus among business and political elites.
Shale gas exhaustion rate is very high (e.g., natural gas--you can not cut short the production given the below-the-ground pressure). I am afraid of a sudden fall in production rate less than 10 years down the road. Engineers in that industry can read the data and they understand that well.
I think even people in the energy industry can sense the urgency of new source of energy--America must cut its gas consumption. Given more than half of the gasoline consumption comes out of daily commuter's transportation need, the easiest way is to cut down the car consumption of gasoline.
In the future, maybe only airplane can still burn gasoline. All other industries will be forced to consume energy from electricity--this is the long term perspective as mentioned by Elon Musk several times in his interview.
家园 但是钱尼那一套为什么不成 就算美国贫富分化没有今天这么悬殊，制造业没有流失，中产阶级实际收入这些年再涨三倍，仍然是赶不上石油价格上涨的速度。目前美国的油价比其他国家仍然偏低，应该已经是“维稳”价格了。
石油价格的升高，从供需看要归结为中国的崛起，从货币看是美元自己慢性通胀，但是归根结底石油在能源上的地位没有相应的替代品，那么谁控制石油，谁就可以在食物链中利用能源来“抽税”，这个感受在中国大家对两桶油都有切身感受，美国实际上也存在但是比较隐蔽，这些年只要是干石油工业的都赚的脑满肠肥。
各行各业的人起早贪黑，创新挖潜，专利PK， 到最后却是眼看着经济果实，自己的血汗不可控制的大量流向能源业，从中东的王爷到西方石油公司，真是打落牙齿和血吞。因为石油对现代世界是从工业到生活的各个角落都渗透过了，人的原始欲望，对生活水平的提高，无一不是通过增加对石油的使用去实现的。
能源价格的不断提高，也说明了一个本质的问题，人类文明的扩充，已经越来越强烈的感受到有限能源限制的压力。当能源成本提高到对经济活动的发展得不偿失的地步时，就是文明扩充停下脚步的时候，不是找到新的能源，就是通过彼此PK继续千万年来自然界的达尔文法则了。
家园 peak oil and 文明扩充停下脚步 Cheney is small potato. There are masterminds behind him. Those NewCons have their foreign policies based on a critical assumption: peak oil theory.
Please google "peak oil". It has been out since late 1990s and early 2000s, based on solid mathematical modeling and engineering data (FYi, all PetroChina's wells have peaked in production--so China's domestic oil production has a time bomb ticking already). They sense a global peaking in oil production AND THEY ARE AFRAID OF 文明扩充停下脚步. The Iraq War has a sole purpose to ensure that AT LEAST American 文明扩充 will not 停下脚步 just because of oil constraint. As to the inevitable contraction in Europe/Asia/Africa, American NewCons clearly do not care at all.
The peak oil assumption totally missed out two issues, 1)the shale gas tech., which was pioneered by Mitchell; 2)Iraq is so costly/difficult to control (a lesson after 2003)
American elites totally ignored their European allies' interests, and believe that control of choke points, such as Afganistan, could contain a weak Russia and a formerly weak China. In the end, the 2000s Bush gov. alienated almost everybody in the world, except China (a cheap ally out of economic agreement--China buys U.S. treasury notes).
You have to admit that NewCons have one thing right: there is PEAK OIL for CONVENTIONAL OIL FIELDS, and there WILL be an inevitable PEAK MOMENT FOR shale oil (oilsands in Canada too) TOO.
America shall not rest its security on an temporary bandit solution--shale oil. It should expand the boundary of energy source for its LONG TERM GROWTH AND PROSPERITY, therefore, another group of elites kicked out NewCons from the Bush adminstration and their main message: to re-focus America's efforts on new sources of energy or at least replacement technology to REDUCE DEPENDENCY ON OIL (both FOREIGN and domestic). Currently, America's daily oil consumption is around 16-18 million barrels, half of which is related to the use of car by average Joes.
That's why Tesla must succeed. China is also investing in EV tech (China's daily oil consumption is already 8m barrels and it is still growing fast since China has overtaken America as THE LARGEST CAR PRODUCER IN THE WORLD), but its political effort is often self-contradictory (central gov. vs. local gov.; fights among different industries, eg., oil vs. electric generators). So China and America could start around the same time (2008-2009), but America could finally win out given its superior political and financial infrastructures.
If the world still grow under the current model, we will need 100m barrels of oil every DAY just to maintain our current way of life. Human beings will hit the wall sooner or later and THE WHOLE WORLD NEED A BRUTAL WAR TO DRAMATICALLY SHRINKING THE POPULATION(thus oil consumption) TO meet THE CURRENT RESOURCE CONSTRAINT, if there is no tech. breakthrough.
家园 Very well said bravo!
家园 好文，符合北美情况 在中国我觉得传统机械动力汽车的退出要比预期慢，汽油价格高升的话，液化气改装将成为潮流。同时公共交通电气化。电池电动轿车也许永远不会成为主流。
家园 您这文章有点儿流水账, 结构感不足 似乎论点有点意思，但是论据又不够convincing
似乎有点脚踩西瓜皮，滑到哪儿算哪儿的意思
看的头晕...
家园 waiting for your comments 最近上西西河都希望能看到你对中国近期经济形势的点评，特别是房地产泡沫和人民币汇率的问题。有时间的话写点吧。多谢！
家园 check zhuhit He is a banking insider.
The central gov. will support housing prices in the first-tier cities (B/S/Guangzhou). Actually secret money printing has started if you read daily news.
I do not pay much attention to USD/CNY exchange rate, since both nations' central banks are manipulating their money supply to depress their own currency. China seems to have a upper hand now. I am not Zhou Xiaochuan, so I can not guess out his next move.
Theoretically speaking, a nation with higher inflation (M2 printing speed, such as China now) shall see its currency depreciate. But China is a magic nation, so we have seen breakdown of this rule of thumb between 2008-2013.
家园 ask for some help How do you evaluate the American junk bond market with current economic situation, honestly speaking, I do not have too much ideas in purchasing, reducing or just keep holding my investment of that part. Thanks
家园 （外二）技术的重要性 每次一谈论技术公司，就有人说这个没有技术难度，那个大家其实都有。
本猫认为，世界上有两种技术，一种是革命性的，另外一种是非革命性的。绝大部分技术，不管吹的如何玄乎，都属于非革命性的。革命性的东西，比如互联网，在全球化的今天被公开后，也会飞速被普及，比如中国在IT界干的事基本上可以用两个字概括 - 山寨。美国只要有技术出来，被证实确实有效能挣钱，中国人抄袭起来没有任何压力。
IT算什么，就是国之重器 - 氢弹，美国人一证明可行性，中国人没有几年就独立做出来了，何况现在IT界不管什么技术处理，资料在网上下载可真的是可以用“分分钟”来形容 - 人家根本就是开源的。
拿现在IT界第一号公司苹果来说，它的Mac本质上就是PC，OS的底层是BSD，iOS则是换了个马甲，iPhone零件基本上是外来的，就是CPU，当年乔布斯还想让Intel做，结果给拒了。也就是说，人家根本没认为这是成功的关键。
iPhone刚出来的时候，大家拿它和当时的巨头Nokia比，结论是Nokia这个也有，那个也有，人家早就有了。
问题是Nokia今天被逼得连手机都不做了。
技术，那就是武器。成功的关键，那还要看人，看人主要是看思想，怎么使用技术的思想。这一点，中国前三十年拼命强调，有什么武器打什么仗，后三十年基本丢掉了。
特斯拉的技术当然可以复制，电机，电池，你扔几千个工程师进去，干几年，落后的差距自然就补上了。几千个工程师在中国值多少钱？但是人脑袋里的想法不是几年补得上的。
互联网时代，FB，推特，真的有什么不传之秘？骗鬼去吧。弄个whitebox还拿出来吹。但思想上领先，才是它们在硅谷而不是中关村出现的关键。
通宝推：jboyin,家园 给装B的傻冒需要好东西吗？ 很多东西，不是做不出，而是没必要，你让我去中国作超过意大利一流的咖啡机，我做得出来，但不会比意大利原产便宜，没有那个批量。批量上来，最多便宜20%，因为必要的机械加工，处理，材质都没法省钱。
如何同原价1/20的永康货竞争？iPhone一样的，便宜的安卓机和iPhone用料等等上，肯定有差距。
永康货可以用皮鞋洗衣粉冲出卖相不错，口味垃圾的咖啡，你的顾客都没喝过，装B用的，你做好机器？找死。
技术不是问题，市场才是问题。
做菜做得好就能开大馆子？呵呵
家园 其实那些名牌的技术都是大路货。 但是一旦你的质量和名牌一样了，但你的成本就比名牌高多了。
其实名牌靠的不是质量而是成本。
东西都是人做的，没啥难的。
难就难在没品牌就没市场，没市场就没规模。
规模上不去成本就降不下来。质量一样还比名牌贵，谁买呀。
除非你有革命性技术能显著降低成本。
不然人家稍微降点价，打打价格战。
人家从吃肉变成喝汤，你就从喝汤变成死翘翘了。
其实树立品牌形象的过程就是保证质量，
自己饿不死干熬，熬到市场认可才能吃上肉。
以上都是理性的消费市场，国内的非理性市场就是拼知名度，拼广告。
只要知名度上去了，质量无所谓，反正是非理性市场，消费者没几个能分辨出质量。
家园 先把CPU，还有航空发动机搞的像点样子再出来吹吧 国人花了九牛二虎之力还望尘莫及，
整个中国就没有个能逃过NSA监控的地方，奥巴马起诉五名解放军就是啪啪的打脸，还自我陶醉IT技术没啥，真是无知者无畏。
人的知识就好比一个圆圈，圆圈里面是已知的，圆圈外面是未知的。你知道得越多，圆圈也就越大，你不知道的也就越多。
从你的文字看，你的圈圈小的很。
家园 cannot agree anymore 产品之上的东西，或者说产品背后的东西，那套发展战略蓝图才是最重要的玩意儿。国内的毕竟是进入工业化时代还不久，需要一段时间熟悉工业化的真谛，积淀下人才思想，然后才算是能信心百倍的去探索信息化时代的发展趋势。
对于这个时代的hardcore创新者，他们要思考的就是如何进行信息化时代下人民群众的生产生活方式应该如何改变，而他们如何实现这些改变。
国内的同志们，对工业化社会才是刚有些感性认识，要他们立刻成为信息化时代的领头羊，强人所难了。对于他们，合理的还是跟随策略，当然也要有随时准备超车的心态。
家园 美国应该国家出面到处修充电站了 是芬兰还是挪威记不住了，人家电动车普及率达到6%，就是国家出面盖充电站，加州才到0.6%。
话说中国政府别的不用做，不是照那谁说的钱多么，就是一条，到处修充电站，全世界的电动车肯定都到中国去发展，什么产业革命，雾霾，中东输油管，南海，到时全不是问题。
唯一的问题是两桶油与他们雇的五毛们，是个阻力。习李政权可以做的正经事多的是，可是望眼望去，现在只能忙着打老虎。等打完了，人家产业革命都成功了。