主题：欧洲讨饭记1 -- parishg
家园 1930年代 金融危机爆发于美国，然后发酵于欧洲。而此时东亚的新生强国经济发展的势头被打断，开始侵略扩张以转嫁内部矛盾。
历史会重演吗？
- 复 1930年代
家园 as to whether China will b become Japan or become a force for peace or prosperity in the world of turmoil, we have to ask our pighead politicians for answer.
The question is: are you the FDR of China or just Wen-the Hollywood emperor of China?
Buddy, you are really smart. You have figured out what I mean in my last sentence. There are so many 帝国派 discussing about the wonderful future of China as the new imperitive force overshadowing asia. While, many of them could be the 炮灰 for other people's dream.
China needs to solve its problem of domestic income disparity. Otherwise, Japan in 1930s could well be China in 2020s or 2030s.
家园 看到两强相争真是开心 China should provide Europe with enough bullets, not to live, but to hope, and buy technology from them. Anything else that is not in the scope of an Admiral's telescope may worth as much as paper.
- 复 欧洲讨饭记1
家园 温家宝提出要欧洲承认中国的完全市场经济地位作为交换 好像欧洲不愿意啊。其实到2016年中国就自动被WTO承认为完全市场经济地位了，还有5年。
家园 stupid to even negotiate with them. At certain point, those European hypocrites will come to beg at the front door of the Chinese.
Chinese need to FIX THEIR DOMESTIC income disparity first. Chinese leadership are sitting on the volcano of domestic anger too.
- 复 欧洲讨饭记1
家园 【求助】兄台能否大致谈谈欧洲演变路线图？ 我也看空欧洲很久了，但具体如何演变看不清楚，我的猜测是：希腊可能会被踢出去，但其他几只猪猡还有得折腾。与雷曼情况不大一样的是，大家一起不死不活拖很长时间，也就是一只猪刚消停，另一只猪又出状况。具体到股市，你觉得出现08年级别的大崩盘概率有多大？
家园 我前两天贴过 家园 9/20 if Greece gets the next tranche. Then we will be in March 2008--another rescue and kick-of-the-can on the road.
There will be temporary stability. Finally Lehman 2.0 will come.
Then sooner or later Greece default issue comes back again.
First, Greece has unbalanced budget for years... I do not understand how can those pighead congressmen can even passed all those budgets in the past.
Second, the whole country is now dead: fiscal specialiasts employed by the finance dept. have already concluded that "tax revenue flow has collapsed". Tourism collapsed, people are doing nothing constructively except for continuous street protest.
Look at Ireland: the same austerity plan, Irishmen bited all bullets. Greeks refused to do anything.
A shrinking GDP of 7% on an annual basis, collapsing tax base, people enjoying tax evasion and fraud without any sense of shame, large percentage of labor force employed by the gov., collapsing private sector, **people that could not take on any hardship and frequently resorting to street violence for fiscal crisis.
A perfect country for national bankruptcy.
The fiscal specialist Prof. Reinhart mentioned that in the last 200 years, Greece has been in debt restructuring/renegotiation for 50 years. The "best" record among all European nations.
Just deja vu.
- 复 欧洲讨饭记1
家园 挑拨离间，各个击破 -- 谁说美国人不懂谋略？ 所谓唇亡齿寒，两千年前我们就懂得道理现在还能犯糊涂？帮欧洲人，是要用一半的财产保证另外一半不受损失，不帮欧洲人，他们降了就会和美国人一起来抢我们，那时候命都得搭上，可不是一半财产的事了。为什么我们的财产会有风险？因为美国人不想生产，只想抢劫。Easy Money搞惯了，没兴趣挣辛苦钱了。羊群们抱成一团，老狼不好下口。就对喜羊羊说，何必跟懒羊羊，美羊羊那帮loser混在一起，跟我一起抢钱吃肉多好啊。你要信了他的，第一个被吃掉的就是你。张仪当年就是这么玩楚怀王的：
秦欲伐齐，齐楚从亲，於是张仪往相楚。楚怀王闻张仪来，虚上舍而自馆之。曰：“此僻陋之国，子何以教之？”仪说楚王曰：“大王诚能听臣，闭关绝约於齐，臣请献商於之地六百里，使秦女得为大王箕帚之妾，秦楚娶妇嫁女，长为兄弟之国。此北弱齐而西益秦也，计无便此者。”楚王大说而许之。群臣皆贺，陈轸独吊之。楚王怒曰：“寡人不兴师发兵得六百里地，群臣皆贺，子独吊，何也？”陈轸对曰：“不然，以臣观之，商於之地不可得而齐秦合，齐秦合则患必至矣。”楚王曰：“有说乎？”陈轸对曰：“夫秦之所以重楚者，以其有齐也。今闭关绝约於齐，则楚孤。秦奚贪夫孤国，而与之商於之地六百里？张仪至秦，必负王，是北绝齐交，西生患於秦也，而两国之兵必俱至。善为王计者，不若阴合而阳绝於齐，使人随张仪。苟与吾地，绝齐未晚也；不与吾地，阴合谋计也。”楚王曰：“原陈子闭口毋复言，以待寡人得地。”乃以相印授张仪，厚赂之。於是遂闭关绝约於齐，使一将军随张仪。
张仪至秦，详失绥堕车，不朝三月。楚王闻之，曰：“仪以寡人绝齐未甚邪？”乃使勇士至宋，借宋之符，北骂齐王。齐王大怒，折节而下秦。秦齐之交合，张仪乃朝，谓楚使者曰：“臣有奉邑六里，原以献大王左右。”楚使者曰：“臣受令於王，以商於之地六百里，不闻六里。”还报楚王，楚王大怒，发兵而攻秦。陈轸曰：“轸可发口言乎？攻之不如割地反以赂秦，与之并兵而攻齐，是我出地於秦，取偿於齐也，王国尚可存。”楚王不听，卒发兵而使将军屈匄击秦。秦齐共攻楚，斩首八万，杀屈匄，遂取丹阳、汉中之地。楚又复益发兵而袭秦，至蓝田，大战，楚大败，於是楚割两城以与秦平。
家园 面对老欧洲这帮一直坑中国的龟孙子。。。 我们救他干嘛。。直接甩售欧盟国家的债券，做空他们算了。。。
家园 cite Ben's comments 1） 欧洲的问题，根子是欧元各国自己，美国人不过是挑破了黑暗面，激化了矛盾，还是属于“顺势而为”的。如果没有欧猪们，美国敢情自己造一个出来？裁判再吹黑哨，总不能亲自踢一个球进去吧？
I can not cite all since we on the sub-forum promise not to do that. But you can ask Ben on this forum for his insights.
European funds actively worked against America and its banking system before 2008. Deustche bank stabbed American banks to destablize America. Now is just the pay-back time.
你做初一我做十五, fair game.
家园 希腊这头猪不就是狗剩（高盛）诱惑下变出来的！ 
家园 I show due respect to Greece as a nation.
But it creates the problem by itself. Goldman also operates in UK and Germany, but those nations do not have such a big fiscal problem at all.
Greeks should blame themselves for their own downfall. They took free lunch for long time, now is the payback time.