主题：【原创】谈一点现在对十五年前大事件及后果的感想 -- 黑岛人

从今天开始我是黑岛兄的正式铁杆粉丝了！

"当年学生、群众、军人的血并没有白流，虽然道不相谋，然而最后如果可以殊途同归，逝者也可当含笑九泉了。"

黑岛兄说的好，我自认为六四可比为追求政治幸福的"大跃进"，不幸逝去的人都成为理想的殉葬品。国人用近二十的动荡才明白一个道理：物质财富是要慢慢积累的。从而在改革开放后的二十年间一直反思中为"赶英超美"而耐心地实践和积累。同样一个理想的社会制度也不可能一日变法而成，千里之遥，岂能一日达。六四中的已逝人用鲜血和生命告诉国人，前行的路途中哪里是深渊，哪里是荆棘，哪里有可能是坦途。后继人将继续着这摸索的路途，直至达到理想的圣地。

是要送花的

James II was overthrown mainly because of his religion not his style of government. James II belonged to the Catholic Church, while most of the people at the time in England protestants. There was already an exclusion crisis in the last years of the reign of Charles II. The Whigs tried to pass a bill in the parliament, to prevent Duke of York (James II) from succeeding the throne. This bill failed partly due to Chareles II's determination to defend royal privilege, partly because the Whigs could not agree the person to replace James as the heir. Some people preferred Charles' bastard son, Duke of Monmoth, while others preferred James' protestant daughter Mary (who married to William in Holland). When James II came to the throne in 1685, he was widely unpopular. But there was no mood of revolution then. Most people just wished him to die early then Mary would succeed to the throne. The crisis came in 1687. James II's young wife suddenly got preganant and later bore a boy who was baptised as a Catholic. Under English law, this boy (later the pretender, James III) instead of Mary became the legitimate heir. The Whigs got horrified and disseminate the vile and completely unfounded rumor that the boy was not really James's son. Under this pretence, they invited William, Mary's husband to invade England. Reminiscent of his father's fate, James II fled to France. Mary and William ruled Britain jointly.

One of the consequence of the Glorious Revolution is that even today by the law passed in 1689, the English monarch cannot be a Catholic or marry a Catholic.

The decline in the monarch's power began in the Hanovarian era. George I came from Germany, didn't like to live in England and could not speak English. George II was also borne in Germany and preferred to live there. Domestically, the Tories supported James III and his son. The king had to solely rely on the support of the Whig aristocratic families in stead of playing one party against another. The power of the first minister or prime minister grew significantly. But the king still retained considerable power. The old Pitt could not become prime minister as long as George III disliked him.

The real decline in the monarch's power started in 1830. It was the first time a government (PM: Duke of Wellington) supported by the king lost a general election. After 1831 reform bill, it became impossible for the monarch to intervene and rig the election.

Although the constitutional change from 1640 to 1689 was small, the psychological effect of the execution of Charles I was profound. The huge disadvantage of the monarch is that he or she cannot resign. If the parliament pass a bill and the monarch refuses to sign it, the government will resign. Since the bill is approved by the parliament, it is impossible to form an alternative government. And since the monarch cannot rig the election, there is no point in dissolving the parliament. Because of the bloodshed in 1649, the king cannot rule by himself. Therefore, the power of the monarch has been eroded gradually since 1830 and becomes almost non-existent nowadays.

如今你要振臂一呼，大家推翻政府，给六四平反啊，人家只会把你抓起来送进疯人院。对六四平凡耿耿于怀的北京人最多，因为他们受影响大，其次是当年参与的大学生，因为他们有死难的同学。其他人虽然有自己的看法，不至于为此奋起抗争。

六四对于中国最大的遗害是大家知道政府会对自己开枪的，不再信任政府。因为这个认识而造成恐惧、冷漠、短视、加速了因为丧失方向感的道德崩溃，凝聚力消失。这个发生后很多人都认为中国完蛋了，特别是某些特权阶层产生了很多短视行为，即使今天，对中国信心十足的人比80年代少多了，大家都预感到十来年的浮躁短视总会带来一次山洪暴发。今天要求给六四翻案的人不会多，但要是有人喊杀贪官，斗奸商恐怕民意基础比89年深厚得多。很多地方现在就差一个点火的契机。