主题：【原创】闲话1 -- 井底望天

questions below. In case you do not understand his nice article.

比如说美国联储局主席直升飞机大本哥，说了一个词汇，叫做“量化宽松”。很多人就不是太懂，因为听起来倍高深。

其实说白了，换一句大白话，叫做“印钞票”，

两件事情，一个就是去买政府国债。

--the essence is new digital money printing. But it is slightly different from traditional FOMC rate cut: that move only impacts short-term inter-bank rate by buying treasury notes. QE impacts mainly LONG-term interest rates for all kinds of transactions.

美国政府，觉得短期信用还可以靠得住，可是长期信用，有一点让大家心里毛毛的。于是大家决定，俺们不如不买长期美国国债，只买短期的美国国债，

--Short term treasury notes have better liquidity, but lower return rates. Mid-east money and China money shifted to the short-maturity end during crisis years so that they will have BETTER bargaining power against the U.S. gov.: in banking, that's called renegotiation option. Banks usually lend shorter when they do not trust one corporation.

Here many foreign gov. are bankers now. During early 2000s, many central banks buy long-term gov. bonds, they learned tough lessons and also distorted U.S. mortgage market (Fed reserve lost control over long-term treasury notes and their interest rates, resulting in a flat yield curve. Many banks did stupid things in 2005-2006).

这样的话，风险不就小了嘛。

那么美国中期国债，就卖不动了。

--No, that's a strategic choice by China. China is sacrificing returns for better political bargaining.

而这个长期利率，就只有一个办法：美联储印钱自己买。

--Fed did the same thing before in 1930s. Nothing new.

那么美联储除了买美国政府的长期国债，来压低长期利率，同时做的，就是买机构债务，说白了，就是印钱给两房，让他们有钱借给大家买房子。

这两个举措，其实都是要稳定美国现在危机重重的房屋市场。

--Fed is using its unaudited balance sheet to boast up the whole US housing market. But I do not think it will be successful unless there is a global inflation forthcoming.

就是印钱给两房，让他们有钱借给大家买房子。--will create profit incentive for Fannie and Freddie to refinance for some homeowners.

但是也不是光要稳定房屋市场，而是对其他两个市场：资本市场和就业市场都希望有所帮助。

--Currently, if America wants to see recovery in these two markets, it need a -5% effective interest rate. I guess everyone here can figure out how to achieve that rate. Ben is silently implementing this policy now.

其实在现实社会里面，哪有这么非白及黑的情况。美联储放松银根这个货币政策，可以表现在压低基准利率，也可以表现在认购国债或者公司债来压低长期利率。

而美联储印出去的钱，可以交到私人公司手里，也可以交到政府手里，大家都拿出来花，你还分得清那些是财政政策，那些是货币政策？

所以你反正都是在印钱，那么就是看你印出来的钱，关键不是谁来花掉，而是花在哪里。

政府拿到手里的钱，估计一个用处，就是把本来就臃肿不堪，需要裁减的政府雇员队伍稳住。

--hehe. I expect to see more spending on infrastructure. Of course, your speculation also make sense since public employee unions are quite powerful...

那么是不是私人来到了美联储超级便宜利率的贷款，就可以帮助美国的就业市场？那也不一定。人家一转身，这些钱就进了股市了。

--New money from monetary policy will become deposit into banks and then deposit back into Fed reserve. Therefore, Fed QE is totally useless along the monetary policy option.

你修人行道，还要雇几个人干活呢，进了股市炒卖，最多就是雇了几个电脑干活而已。

--yes! That's why gov. might be more effective in stimulating REAL ECONOMY, OR MAIN street.

这个出路，就是中国。就是说，美国联储局要用洪水来冲中国。一方面是印钞票导致美元贬值，一方面就是要把通胀输出到中国。

--just deja vu of 1970s. Germany adjusted through exchange rate hike without domestic cost of inflation. 1970's Europe is exactly like today's China: under the fixed rate Bretton Woods system, with lots of trade surplus against the U.S. China refuses to adjust exchange rate, but, by depressing domestic credit growth (its policy mainly targets on monetary multiplier, NOT base money), economic growth and domestic labor cost (worse economy, no bargaining power by labor to increase salary). Therefore, a stabler fixed rate exchange system can be maintained.

Here, China is betting that it will not see a major downturn in its own economy and it has effective capital flow regulation (controlled hot money inflow) and a much bigger "belly"(at least larger than German's) so that Fed Reserve can not really achieve its objective.

Then medium-sized nations are to suffer... That's the power of G2...

was used by Nixon administration in its fight against Europe and Japan.

Germans were in China's shoe in early 1970, exactly the same problem. And Germany finally allowed its Mark to appreciate and USD established itself as the new global reserve currency.

半个月来跑了几个三线城市，明显的看到热火朝天的建设景象。伴随的一个现象是，三线城市的行政费用，管理费用，乃至服务行业（工程配套服务）都要比中心城市高。我想其中的道理在于，当国家采取大规模基建投资拉动经济策略的时候，必然不能避免地方政府大干快上的豪情，否则，地方经济就会形成所谓的“凹陷”。风潮对地方政府有非常大的吸引力。

为了筹集资金，我想地方政府会不择手段。和井大担心的企业从国外借贷的情况相反，我担心的是地方政府饥不择食。

高通胀也许不可避免。在2008年对外国失望后，接下来要考验的是国内。人，最终能够依靠的还是自己的双手。90后00后的洗礼，恐怕是难逃这一身。

送花成功，可取消。有效送花赞扬。感谢：作者获得通宝一枚。

参数变化，作者，声望:1；铢钱:16。你，乐善:1；铢钱:-1。本帖花:1

目前美国的政策配合似乎存在悖离的情况；比如说汇率战与贸易战并行，汇率战必然带来贸易战，而贸易战一是会削弱物价平稳态势，二是美国国际贸易逆差减少，事实上又会削弱美国的外部融资能力；比如说货币宽松与美元信用，两者不可兼得；比如说货币宽松与需求刺激，本也好，克鲁格曼也好信奉“消费需求低迷、物价萎缩的原因就在于物价水平太低，所以要维持一定的通货膨胀，乃至维持长期的负利率，刺激居民消费，将经济从通缩中拉出来”，而事实上消费低迷既是收入问题也是资产结构问题（居民的高负债），通货膨胀作为财富分配的方式，从来就是从低收入居民中转移到高收入居民，从穷国转移到富国。所以，除非货币宽松能够使美国洗劫全球，从而解决美国普通居民的收入和资产结构问题，否则，货币宽松必输无疑。

中国的加息，体现了某种程度的政策转向。大宗商品市场、全球股市应声而落。但是，在对中国宏观调控鼓掌的同时，必须注意到中国政府可能存在的自满心理。如果不能认识的美联储的央行地位，美联储的货币政府服务于美国的全球战略；与美国私底下的交易是战术性的而非战略性的，中国在货币政策的某种退让并不能改变美国中长期战略取向；这就意味着，中国不采取连续的、配套动作，可能很难创造出期望的内外部局面。