主题：del -- MRandson
家园 未必
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家园 国有资产的变卖，上次是向外国投行低价倾销 卖给普通百姓至少是3，4倍的价钱。有人说是贱卖，但没有贱卖就不能成功营销成功。一块钱卖给老百姓，老百姓才不会买呢。
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家园 德法可能弃希保西葡. 家园 放弃希腊以后，保卫西葡的成本太高 一旦放弃东线，马上就兵败如山倒。元首让士兵在严寒之中死守东线，是有道理的。
不过，并不能完全排除欧洲领导人办傻事。
家园 目前德国发出的信号还是一点点添油 有些人忧心的是国内的政治前途，缺乏战略眼光。
可惜，美国是条狼。
家园 目前为止希腊没拿出什么有价值的东西 德国自然善财难舍。欧元区破裂是底线，只要不破裂，就可以了。
如果欧元区破裂了，外界可以说当事人缺乏战略眼光。如果最后没有破裂，外界会怎么评价呢？比较狠。如果最后不但没有破裂，而且希腊交出一部分财政权呢？外界会说，当事人审时度势，顺利扩大了德国在欧元区的作用，是伟大的政治家。
多数领导人，赌性都很大，而且很自信。不过，聪明的领导人还有一个特点，就是一旦觉察到风向不对，能及时转舵，甚至不惜下狠手斩仓。老太婆有没有第二个特点还有待观察。
家园 欧元区破裂是底线，只要不破裂--market is beyond politician's control.
1930s Great Depression was actually started by a leftist French prime minister. He just wanted to penalize Germany a bit, but what he got was the global 2nd-stage dip.
Central bankers assume they can play God, hehe. Americans tried once in 1929 and pretty much screwed themselves. Let's wait to see how good Trichet is in his job.
家园 老太婆毕竟是东德人 是否得势，俺拭目以待。
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家园 disagreement on one issue 欧洲的债务情况是美、日、欧，三个经济体内最好的。
--Europe is better than Japan, but I am not sure about whether it is better than US. Do you have any data to support that unsupported conclusions?
Let me show some OECD 2008 below (percentage of GDP):
1. Italy--114.4% (big cheater through GS deal, unreliable too)
2. Greece-102.5% (totally a lie, unreliable at all)
3. Belgium-93.5%
France: 75.7%
Portugal: 75.2%
*Euro zone: 73.2%
US: 70.0%
Canada: 69.7%
*Germany: 68.8%
Austria: 66.2%
UK: 56.8%
Of course, 2009 deficit should be added. Currently I do not have data by the end of 2009.
You received rigorous Ph.D. training in Britain. I have to say that this post is too loose. But I really like your posts for your insights.
欧洲的事情，对中国是个警钟。地方财政破产，必然威胁整体经济安全。中国没有资格笑话欧洲。
--agree.
BTW, Europe is dead for sure. ECB shall finally compromise its principle and started to lend to PIGs banks next week. Thus market shall stablize a bit next week.
But in the long run, Euroland will be broken into pieces--that is the final objective of American elites and they will not let Europe slip this time.
Germans will pay price for their short-sightedness.
家园 欧洲央行放弃原则援助PIGS的远期后果是什么？ 为啥就此得出欧洲必死的结论呢？
家园 long euro now but short Euro for long run.
liquidity injection can not solve solvency problem.
Wait for the third wave of attack a few months later.
家园 美国的数据没有包括两房数据吧 家园 OECD must have the same definition across nations for COMPARISON, therefore, I think Fannie/Freddie are not there. State sponsorship of home ownership is an North American idea.
BTW, Canada also has similar arrangement, it is called CMHC. If you combine CMHC's balance sheet with that of Canadian gov., you can conclude that Canada is the most dangerous nation on the earth in terms of sovereign credit risk.
But it does not make sense.
Fannie/Freddie liabilities have not turn sour all(most are prime 30-year fixed). Actually the most recent 10-year treasury note rate collapse (from 4% to 3.4%) will rescue a big chunk of mortgages and relieve the Fannie/Freddie losses.
European crisis turns out to be America's honeymoon. Previously, I am still concerned at the 2010-mid-year pay-option ARM hit, now it seems a non-event.