主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照--in Feb. -- parishg
家园 欧盟可能的反应。 假如我是欧盟的头头。我肯定不救希腊，甚至将其踢出欧元区，任其自生自灭，卖身IMF为奴。然后努力筹钱构筑一堵防火墙，尽全力救助葡萄牙，西班牙，意大利，爱尔兰。避免多米诺骨牌式的崩溃。这几个国家的财政和债务状况看起来还有一口气，希腊则是死定了。
其实葡萄牙也该踢出去，不过葡萄牙和西班牙的经济联系太紧密，葡萄牙一倒，西班牙也难逃。
不过如楼主所言，松散的欧盟估计也没有这样的决断力来进行壮士断腕式的果断行动。欧洲伪君子们在欧洲议会里大概要讨论个半年一年的才会有结论吧。到那时候，只怕想救PIIGS中的其他几个也很难了。多米诺骨牌的局面一旦形成，单凭欧盟的力量无法阻止其蔓延。而有组织的抵抗一旦停止，马上就是各国自扫门前雪，乃至以邻为壑的局面。每一个欧洲国家都只能独自面对国际金融炒家的狼群自求多福了。估计到时候到IMF门前自请卖身都要排队。
多米诺骨牌--欧洲各国在希腊债务中的风险敞口（数据来源：WSJ）：
法国：788亿美元
德国：450亿美元
英国：154亿美元
荷兰：122亿美元
葡萄牙：98亿美元
爱尔兰：86亿美元
意大利：69亿美元
- 复 欧盟可能的反应。
家园 今天看到一条消息：救希腊需要1200亿欧元！ 希腊人太懒了，又过得太舒服了！欠债无数，居然还游行抗议减福利，一点悔过之心都没有！
这种国家你救了有什么用？
想想我们中国人工作的多么辛苦，日子过的远不如希腊人...一定要让希腊人先吃点苦再救他们。
评级机构标准普尔周三把希腊的评级降为垃圾级，导致全球金融市场大跌。为阻止希腊债务危机失控，欧盟将于五月十日召开高峰会议，届时或讨论加大挽救希腊的金额。外电引述国际货币基金总裁卡恩指出，若要完全拯救希腊，所需资金将高达1200亿欧元(1.2324万亿港元)，较现时 450亿的拯救计划高出1.7倍。国际货币基金组织据称将向希腊增加100亿欧元贷款。受该消息影响，欧美股市昨得以喘息，美股早段曾反弹近50点，欧洲股市跌幅收窄。欧洲联盟及国际货币基金组织(IMF)较早前达成协议，启动了向希腊提供450亿欧元纾困金的机制，不过，欧盟各国最终是否向希腊批出贷款，全视乎德国的决定。在450亿欧元中，IMF负责100亿欧元，虽然市场昨日盛传IMF可能增加希腊的贷款额至200亿欧元，但是这恐怕这只是杯水车薪，因为德国国会议员周三晚引述卡恩的言论指出，要完全把希腊从债务危机中挽救出来，所需要的资金高达1200亿欧元。
IMF贷款拟加大一倍
虽然卡恩其后接受彭博社访问时说，目前仍然难以算出希腊总共需多少资金才可以脱离债务危机。不过，从该名德国议员较早前引述他的言论，可知希腊的债务负担绝对不轻。
对欧洲官员而言，最危险的莫过于在6个月前，希腊捏造预算数据而引发的财政风暴，现已一发不可收拾。当希腊等待欧元区伙伴伸出援手之际，欧盟却宣布，对其他出现债务问题的成员国未有具体的援助计划。
欧盟委员会常任主席范龙佩表示，欧洲政府将于5月10日举行首脑会晤，并就希腊问题进行讨论。范龙佩表示，在未来数日他们将会获得一份关于希腊债务的报告。而政府首脑将会在报告的基础上，决定是否向联合方案拨出款项。目前欧洲委员会、欧洲央行、IMF以及希腊政府正在对联合方案进行谈判。
西班牙评级遭标普调低
他强调，毫无疑问希腊将要重整债务，而援助谈判目前仍在进行当中，进展顺利。
分析师表示，目前已不单是希腊和葡萄牙的问题，而是整个欧元体系受到威胁。继希腊和葡萄牙后，西班牙昨日亦被标准普尔降级，其信贷评级被调低一级，至AA级别。
AXA投资管理公司固定受益策略师博特指出，显示最大的危机在于市场对欧洲每一个负债国家均持质疑态度，而投资者的不信任将会导致其他负债国家的主权债务危机。
市场担忧欧盟及IMF原计划向希腊提供的450亿欧元纾困金，将无法阻止希腊债务危机恶化，因此有消息人士称IMF正在商议将资金援助增加100亿欧元(折合132亿美元)。根据熟悉商议内容的一名驻希腊分析师表示，IMF可能通过原计划的3年期贷款提供上述资金。
另外，有分析表示，由于愈来愈多人反对德国出钱救希腊，德国总理默克尔将面对更大的压力，最终甚至会影响其联合政府的稳定性。
- 复 欧盟可能的反应。
家园 well-expected: 而有组织的抵抗一旦停止，马 而有组织的抵抗一旦停止，马上就是各国自扫门前雪，乃至以邻为壑的局面
that's well-expected by the American financial elites as well as the political elites.
Europeans never learned from the lesson of 1932 banking collapse.
家园 欧洲人不是不想，而是不能。根本原因是欧洲出没有过秦始皇。 欧洲人不是不想，而是不能。根本原因是欧洲没有出过秦始皇。欧盟毕竟只是一个松散的民族国家联盟，既没有统一的政治基础，也没有统一的文化和语言，当然就没法有统一的利益啦。虽然搞了个统一的货币，但各国都想把利益往自己的碗里扒拉。平时在欧元区里就有象意大利和希腊这样的国家不守规则，能捞则捞，能骗则骗，借着欧元的好信用拼命为自己多借些债。一到危难之际还能指望这些欧元区国家之间拼死相救？
家园 no, Roman empire united part of Western Europe under one single language and culture.
But the barbarians invaded and destroyed the Western Empire, thus created today's fragmented Europe. Those barbarians should blame themselves for today's hopeless EU.
The New World will defeat the Old World again this time.
家园 希腊的经济及债务数据（来自Wiki）。不倒没天理啊。 进口相当于出口的3.5倍。外债相当于年出口额的30倍，全部出口还不够付外债的利息。外汇储备只够支撑一个月的贸易赤字。希腊岂止是在寅吃卯粮，简直是连子孙的粮都吃尽了。这样的国家不倒，实在是没天理。
GDP $343 billion (nominal, 2008 est.)
339.2 billion (PPP, 2008 est.)[1]
GDP growth -2.0% (2009)[2]
Exports $18.64 billion (2009 est.)
Imports $61.47 billion (2009 est.)
Gross external debt $552.8 billion (30 June 2009)
Public finances
Public debt $405.7 billion (125% of GDP)[4]
Revenues $108.7 billion (2009 est.)
Expenses $145.2 billion (2009 est.)
Foreign reserves $3.473 billion (31 December 2008 est.)
家园 update: kick out greece http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y68LJw5r0A8&playnext_from=TL&videos=_J4QMKuWd3g
Hi! Come to see la belle... BTW, I think Sara is a jewish la belle.
It is amazing that all Bloomberg female anchors are so smart and pretty at the same time.
家园 update: Spain downgrade( fro Source: Marketwatch
S&P downgrades Spain
12:14p ET April 28, 2010 (MarketWatch)
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- It was Spain's turn Wednesday to feel the heat from Standard & Poor's as the ratings agency cut the country's credit rating from AA+ to AA, pinning the decision on fears that an extended period of weak economic growth could damage the government's budget position.
"We now believe that the Spanish economy's shift away from credit-fueled economic growth is likely to result in a more protracted period of sluggish activity than we previously assumed," said S&P credit analyst Marko Mrsnik.
The outlook for Spain's credit rating is negative, S&P said.
The move comes a day after S&P cut Greece's credit rating to junk status at BB+ and lowered Portugal's credit rating by two notches. Those moves amplified turmoil in southern European credit markets and heightened fears that Greece's deepening fiscal woes could transform into a full-blown debt crisis for the euro zone. Read about the earlier downgrades.
Earlier Wednesday, European officials scrambled to reassure markets that an aid plan for Greece would soon be finalized. Talk that the size of the joint European Union-International Monetary Fund package could rise -- to more than 100 billion euros ($131 billion) over three years, rather than the 45 billion euro, one-year package currently under consideration -- helped calm extremely volatile southern euro-zone credit markets. Read about contagion fears.
The Spanish downgrade renewed selling pressure on the euro , which fell to its lowest level against the dollar since April 2009, setting a 12-month low for the second consecutive session after having fallen Tuesday in the wake of the Greece downgrade.
The currency remained 0.3% lower at $1.3141. See Currencies for more on action in the dollar and the euro.
Regarding Spain, S&P said it now expects inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product to average 0.7% annually in 2010 to 2016, compared to previous expectations of more than 1%.
Spain's economy continues to suffer from the implosion of a massive housing bubble.
The ratings agency said it also had taken into account the possibility that borrowing costs in Spain's public and private sectors could remain elevated this year and in 2011, further slowing Spain's recovery from recession. Such a prospect wasn't factored into the agency's "base case" for Spain, however.
Borrowing costs for other highly indebted euro-zone countries have risen amid fears the debt woes weighing on Greece could spread.
S&P said it still expected Spain's 2010 fiscal deficit to remain in line with the government's target of 9.8% of GDP, adding that weaker revenues and higher spending are likely over the medium term. That means the deficit is likely to exceed 5% of GDP by 2013, according to S&P.
The government has said it intends to cut its deficit to 3% of GDP -- the E.U.'s limit -- by that time.
The agency also said its debt projections assume banks won't draw more than the 27 billion euros available in the government's bank-restructuring fund.
S&P said it would revise its outlook for Spain's rating to stable if the government meets or exceeds its fiscal goals in 2010 and 2011 and Spain's economic growth exceeds the agency's expectations.
家园 我认为我国应该趁此机会，帮希腊一把。 现在帮希腊有大大的收益。
欧洲真垮了，我国只怕也要跟着垮。
看看秦吞6国，不要做楚国。
本帖一共被 2 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)家园 大大的利益是什么？有多少？ 来点干货嘛。