主题：【原创】新年政治经济展望之五：国债陷阱（一） -- 井底望天
家园 这简直是一定的。 这是鲁迅说的，不是我说的。
家园 Agree, Then we will see many new "buyers" from BVI, Cayman Island... Federal Reserve are not staffed by stupid Jewish bankers.
China must desert US treasury notes and keep money in cash for a long period of time to make the threat credible. Otherwise, in the short-run, federal reserve can still secretly buy treasury notes and depress the 10-year rate.
If China come back again, Wall Street firms can trick China Central Bank by ripping it off (sell high buy low). WS bankers are experts in manipulating markets.
这样逼着美国用高科技、用海外能源（比如说哈萨克那里的，上次被美国国会封杀）来换美元回去。
--you are the smartest chinese here--hit the nail on the coffin. The pity is that you are not Wen Jiabao and he lacks talents, courage, experience and gut to do what is necessary to maximize gains for China.
--It is a fight between elites of two nations and the meritcracy of US and cronyism of China. I bet many of your advices will fall on deaf ears.
家园 对呀，我们是债权人为什么要这么被动 家园 抱残守缺 掌舵人顾忌到本小集团的利益，不敢动手。
家园 不买美债，炒期货去 家园 hehe, puzzled you know there are two USD worlds: the US USD market and the offshore USD dollar market (Eurodollar and Asiadollar market).
You are assuming that depositing 2T USD with Bank of China will park that 2T outside the US USD market.
But,
Bank of China has two types of dollar deposits: some in US and some in the Asiadollar/Eurodollar system.
If that 2T is in the US dollar market, then you still contribute to the American DOMESTIC credit expansion. You contradict yourself.
If that 2T is in the Asiadollar market, then you need to lend it out to users. To be frank, there are no enough users, because almost all Asian nations were stuffed with their USD reserves.
You can check Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam...
Then you are effectively asking Bank of China hold 2T dollar as liability--paying 3-4% annual interest, but do not lend the money out to anybody, because there is no customer available... Then Bank of China will lose 60B-80B in profit every year--how to fill in this hole?
Eurodollar market is large with total value of 5T. China might be able to find lending customers there, but there is credit risk. Who will be responsible for credit loss?
Of course, one easy way is to lend money to all European governments (PIIGs) in US dollars to help them to go through the fiscal hardship. But those Europeans are frozen snakes, they will bite you back when they come into better shape. They tortured and killed their Jewish creditors (as you vividly documented in your own posts). Why they will treat cheap/dirty/poor/zero-human-rights/inferior(in their own words) yellow Chinese better??
You want to risk your reserve assets to help a geopolitical enemy who humiliate you whenever possible during 2007-2009?
Buddy, I know you are a superior political scientist. But when it comes to finance, do not underestimate your Jewish friends in the finance fields who constructed this post-1971 Brettonwood II system...
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)家园 就是说，美联储可以把美元收起来控制供应量 但是中国央行就不能，因为它持有的是美元而不是人民币，这个钱还是会存留在流通系统中。是这个意思么？如果是这样，就是持有当现金看待，好比我钱不存银行放自己兜里，损失点利息，应该也没有太大问题吧。
家园 同问，钱为什么一定要借出去？数着玩不行吗？ 我猜parishg的担心主要在：
1. 机会成本的损失 ---- 能赚到但没赚到的收益等同亏损。
2. 中国银行如果不放贷但同时要付息，会产生亏损，伤害中国的商业银行。
个人观点：
1. 损失的机会成本可看做一次行动的成本。只要达到目的，则可以说钱花得值。（注：收益应该是属于央行的）
2. 关于存在Bank of China. 我认为井大可能是笔误，应该存在央行--人民银行。 存在中国银行这种商业银行，确实有贷不出去产生账面亏损（政策性亏损）的问题。 另外，这笔本属于央行的美元账面怎么就能存入商业银行呢？要人大特批吗？
应该是，钱本来就是属于央行的，换回来后，还是挂在央行的账面上，所谓的“投资收益”本来就没打算要的，也不存在必须贷出去的压力，央行也没必要给自己付利息。（就好比我把一笔款子存在股票账户上但一年都没买任何股票，我“损失”了一年定期存款的利息。但是，我不在乎，还打算再扔那儿一年，也没什么啊。）
3. 卖美债换美元，不会对应产生为买汇而发出新的人民币基础货币，对中国国内的货币供应量无冲击。 （对应该发的人民币上次买汇时已经发出去了，已经在流通中）
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如果着眼于必须“贷出去”、“生息”、“产生收益”，则卖美债换回美元是不划算的，坚决不能干。
但如果前提是就不要生息，不要“投资收益”，也坚决不贷出去。则思路必然不同，不妨做他一票。更何况美债=》美元 和 美元=》美债 这两个方向上有机会做两小票，还可以考虑挣点早点钱。
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至少，可以拿个小数目试试水，如果砸下去后美国佬跳起来，那就说明砸对了，可以跟进；真要没反应也可以另外想招。
家园 就是持有当现金看待，好比我钱不存银行放自己兜里 就是持有当现金看待，好比我钱不存银行放自己兜里，损失点利息，应该也没有太大问题吧。
Most of modern day money is different from physical currency note. China's foreign reserve is just a few 000 in the computer system. There is no physical form any more.
China's USD dollar reserve is stored as electronic form of US federal reserve notes. When 1t dollar of notes is sold and converted into cash, you still have only 1,000,000,000,000 dollar in the computer system--after your bank sells treasury notes for you, money must be stored in the banking system as electronic deposit.
好比我钱不存银行放自己兜里，损失点利息，应该也没有太大问题吧。
--then a bank needs to give you physical note of $1t.
First, no money printing house has all those notes for you. The physical note in circulation FOR THE WHOLE US is only around $800b, if my memory is right.
Second, then you need to reserve a huge warehouse to keep all the 1T dollars... If the money is stored in States, then you get all the thieves of the world. Do not expect US polices to help you.
损失点利息--agree, but it will be in the range of 60B to 80B every year. China's central bank must shoulder this potential loss. No commercial bank want to take it.
Of course, if today's top leader does not care at all, then everything is possible and America can be coerced into some concession.
美联储可以把美元收起来控制供应量--those Jewish central bankers are very good at that trick. It is a piece of cake for them to manage the money supply. Bernanke has successfully managed the M1 since Sep 2008 and reflated the stock/real estate bubbles.
Keep in mind, the founding chair of Fed reserve was a German jewish banker immigrated to US in 1907. He became US citizen IN ONE YEAR and masterminded today's Fed Reserve...
家园 我想总归有弱点。。。