主题：【文摘】俄罗斯靠石油重塑大国形象 石油资源很快耗尽? -- 西风陶陶
家园 【文摘】俄罗斯靠石油重塑大国形象 石油资源很快耗尽? 俄罗斯靠石油重塑大国形象 石油资源很快耗尽?
2004年08月27日09:18 中国青年报
国际市场石油价格飞涨。作为天然气储量世界第一、石油储量世界第八的国家，俄罗斯在世界能源市场上处于举足轻重的地位。分析人士认为，俄罗斯要重塑大国形象，他们手中的武器不再是核武器，不再是军队，而是石油。
本报北京8月26日电
8月23日，普京和布什通话15分钟，讨论的不是美俄一向关注的弹道导弹问题，也不是车臣武装冲突，而是石油问题。普京向布什保证说，俄罗斯将继续增加石油产量。
目前，国际市场上石油价格飞涨，作为天然气储量世界第一、石油储量世界第八的国家，俄罗斯在世界能源市场上处于举足轻重的地位。分析人士认为，俄罗斯当前的武器不再是核武器，不再是军队，而是手中的石油。它的战略意图是利用石油重塑大国形象，利用石油整合东亚地区。
用石油重塑大国形象
美俄总统为了石油问题通电话并不多见。有评论认为，这表明俄罗斯因能源优势在美国的战略考量中地位有所上升。
近日，美国媒体也报道了俄罗斯通过海上运输向美国加州供应能源的消息。俄罗斯的4家石油公司计划在俄罗斯摩尔曼斯克市沿海建一可停泊超级大型油轮的港口，该油港的石油出口能力可达每昼夜100万桶，造价预计为15亿美元。俄罗斯建设该油港的主要目的是向美国出口石油，估计可向美国输送其石油进口总量的10%。从那里到美国本土的运输距离，要比从波斯湾到美国的距离近得多。美国驻俄罗斯大使阿.沃什鲍认为：“这是一个重大的选择，它可以取代波斯湾和世界其他地区(对美国)的石油供应。”
上个世纪80年代，苏联曾探讨过实施这个项目的可能性，但由于苏联核潜艇基地就在附近，后来放弃了。核潜艇现已迁移到其他基地，原先的顾忌已经消除。除了油港，俄罗斯还要铺设1732公里的输油管道。预计这两项工程将在2006～2008年期间建成。
对于俄罗斯的能源战略，《华盛顿邮报》的文章认为，普京利用石油，一方面在国际舞台上重塑俄罗斯的大国形象，另一方面在国内加强自己的权力。
据俄罗斯官方统计，今年7月，俄罗斯石油日产量飙升至930万桶，创下苏联解体以来的新纪录。俄罗斯现在可以与世界最大石油生产国沙特一争高下。普京意识到，莫斯科手中如今掌握的不再是枪炮，而是石油，因此，自去年夏天起，为了掌控能源行业，他向俄罗斯首富霍多尔科夫斯基开了刀。今年8月初，俄杜马批准了普京的一项新管理方案，剥夺了地方州长控制当地能源资源的权力，还通过增加赋税来干预石油工业。通过一系列铁腕行动，普京给私有石油企业树立了样板，也为俄罗斯在国际上大打能源牌奠定了基础。
在东亚大打能源牌
苏联解体之初，俄罗斯倒向西方，但后来发现单靠西方的道路行不通，转而采取东西并重的战略。“俄罗斯一直奉行‘双头鹰’战略。现在，东亚和欧洲在俄罗斯眼中的重要性各占一半。”社科院世界经济与政治研究所的卢国学先生接受本报记者采访时说。
卢国学认为，俄罗斯无法阻止北约东扩，欧洲的局势总体趋于稳定；在东亚，俄罗斯承认美国的支配地位，但它也要显示自己的存在，不能让美国说了算，至少争取美国在采取行动时向俄罗斯打个招呼。在综合国力衰退、军事影响失去效用的情况下，石油成了俄罗斯东亚战略中的重要武器。
根据美国能源部能源信息署的预测，未来亚洲对石油的需求量将是西方发达国家的二至三倍。大多数亚洲国家的石油进口依赖中东地区，但伊拉克战争和恐怖主义行动引发了各国的危机感，各国均害怕石油供应链中断，所以，石油来源的多样化成了他们共同的战略选择。在多样化的道路上，俄罗斯丰富的能源资源颇具吸引力。
一年多来，“安大线”和“安纳线”之争一直是中日俄关注的话题。俄罗斯在此问题上与中国和日本大玩游戏，充分利用中日矛盾，实现自己战略利益的最大化。截至目前，俄罗斯仍未作出决定，中日都曾一度宣示取得胜利，但又被俄罗斯官员一一否决。据一位研究俄罗斯问题的资深学者透露，今年9月份中俄总理会谈时，将重点讨论能源问题。
除了久拖不决的石油管线之争外，俄罗斯自2008年起可能会通过库页岛一线输送天然气至日本；日本三菱与三井集团则与壳牌公司合伙实施库页岛二线计划，准备建设俄罗斯第一座液化天然气厂。另外，俄罗斯、中国、韩国就铺设从俄罗斯东西伯利亚伊尔库斯克州至韩国西部平泽的天然气输送管道一事，一直在进行商议，但具体操作方案仍未出台，在管道是否经过朝鲜等问题上争议颇多。
靠能源出口融入东北亚
俄罗斯和中国、日本、韩国、朝鲜、美国之间，都有石油和天然气供应关系，俄罗斯可以充分利用各国间的矛盾获取自身的利益。同时，这6个国家，就是朝核问题六方会谈的参与国。对此，专家认为，俄罗斯横跨欧亚，向东亚出口能源可以让它更好地融入这个地区。
7月22日到23日，伍德罗.威尔逊国际学人中心组织召开了俄罗斯东亚关系研讨会。位于美国宾夕法尼亚州的能源机构FSI的总裁约翰.菲特在会上说：“能源将增强俄罗斯的影响力，让它更好地融入东北亚地区。”
目前东亚国家之间敌意加深，地区合作前景暗淡，安全环境难以预测。美国乔治敦大学亚洲问题专家罗伯特.苏特说：“这给了俄罗斯机会，它可以在东亚的这场游戏中扮演积极的角色。”苏特认为，俄罗斯可能会成为东亚积极的一员，除了经贸领域，在安全领域也会发挥重大作用。菲特甚至认为，能源在化解朝鲜半岛危机方面会起作用。“如果从邻国输入天然气，将有利于朝鲜的工业生产，从而减少它与邻国发生冲突的可能性。”
《华盛顿时报》的报道说，俄罗斯希望参与朝鲜的能源供应，但布什政府反对建设一条通过朝鲜进入韩国的输气管道。苏特说：“俄罗斯人的意思是，不管有没有美国人参与，俄罗斯都要与东北亚的邻居进行整合，这迟早会发生。”
卢国学认为，能源争夺不再是单纯的经济问题，还有很大的政治因素在里面。他认为，这对中国来说有利也有弊。“起码它打开了大门，对所有国家都是敞开的，都可以参与竞争。但不利条件在于，它会把能源牌打到极致，中国不得不面对来自第三方的竞争，而我们在技术和资金上并不占优势。”
链接：俄罗斯石油很快耗尽？
俄罗斯自然资源部的一份报告称，俄罗斯境内的石油资源占世界石油储量的12%，但目前已探明石油资源中的一半已被用完。俄通-塔斯社5月28日的报道说，如果不加快石油勘探的速度和开采技术的引进和投资，按照目前的石油开采和勘探速度，俄罗斯的石油储量到2040年将会消耗殆尽。（王冲）
家园 石油储量世界第八？我们这里的说法是： The second largest oil reserve in the world，仅次于中东。
别相信那些到20xx年石油将开采完毕或是类似的鬼话，那是瞎扯！
家园 千万别信石油公司的储量估计，SHELL已经给逮住高估了。另附一个高加索的现状 How to divide the "second Kuwait"
08/23/2004 15:40
Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Victor Kalyuzhny who had been in charge of the negotiations on dividing the Caspian oil, was transferred to another post.
From now on, the former Minister of Power Energy of Russia Igor Yusufov will be responsible for the Caspian oil issue.
Igor Yusufov "will be the Head of the Russian delegation within the special task force of the representatives of the other Caspian countries - Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan", said Russian Ambassador for special assignments Andrey Urnov.
After the demise of the Soviet Union, the attempts are made to divide the Caspian Sea. However, the authors of the projects on dividing the sea rich of oil deposits, produce no proof that their offers are expedient, and elaborate no criteria for using the Caspian oil and gas. In fact, some politicians of the newly established Caspian countries are eager to divide the remains of the former Soviet Union.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan were the first to take over the parts of the sea adjusting to their shores. Such acts were new violations of the treaty between the USSR and Iran. The Soviet government allocated the sectors of the Caspian Sea and granted the right to extract mineral resources to the republics along the shore, and in this way contradicted the principle on joint using the sea by the two subjects - the USSR with Iran. (Although the conditions of using the mineral resources of the Caspian Sea, were not mentioned in the agreement between the USSR and Iran). For this reason, the attempts of the Heads of some Caspian countries to declare the former sectors of the Soviet republics the possessions of the new states, contradict the law.
Until 1998, Russia, Turkmenistan and Iran strongly opposed to the intentions to divide the sea by some countries" own will, and also disagreed with the other countries penetrating into the Caspian area, such as the USA and Turkey which have become extremely active in their pursuit of the Caspian oil in the last years. They violate international treaties while there is no multilateral agreement of the Caspian countries on the new status of the Caspian Sea. Turkey pushes forward the idea of transporting the Caspian oil from Baku to Supsa with tankers" transporting the oil from Supsa to Turkish port Trabzon. Transporting the oil from Baku to Batumi is also fine with Turkey. To prevent transporting oil from Baku to Russian port Novorossiisk and to Europe along the Black Sea, Turkey violated an international convention and introduced the regulations for obtaining permission for tankers to pass Bosfor and Dardannely Strait. This decision contradicts the principles of the international law and the right for free shipping, and infringed upon on Russia"s interests.
To achieve their purposes, Turkish and US oil companies established a consortium and offered to divide the Caspian Sea into national sectors. They push the Caspian states to do this by signing separate agreements on extracting oil with these states (such agreements contradict the law). In fact, the USA and its ally Turkey are interested not mainly in the Caspian oil, but in getting the control over this strategic region between Europe and Asia. For this reason the US experts manipulate with the estimated figures of the oil resources in the Caspian see. They greatly overestimate the Caspian oil deposits to pose the region as "the second Kuwait".
Unfortunately, some heads of the Caspian states are overly excited about the idea of the "second Kuwait" supported by foreign investments and separate agreements on dividing the Caspian oil - Нnly Azerbaijan has more than 10 agreements of this kind. In their pursuit of quick profit, some country leaders do not realize that uncontrollable usage of the Caspian Sea can result in ecological catastrophe. The death of the Aral Sea gave taught no lesson. Such leaders pretend to be negotiating about joint using the sea for 10 years, while the US capital is improving its positions in the Caspian region and the US base in the are is being established.
So far, the following options of economic using the Caspian sea have been proposed:
- joint using the sea with allocating a 10-mile coastal zone for sole national jurisdiction of each of the countries;
- dividing the sea bottom into 5 equal lots, while the water and the sea surface will be used jointly outside the national coastal areas;
- dividing the sea into 5 equal lots of bottom and surface, with putting the state borders between them;
- dividing the sea bottom into unequЮl lots including whole oil deposits into them, while the water and the sea surface will be used jointly or the state borders will be made between these unequal lots.
No proposal has obtained multilateral support so far. The sticking point has been dividing the deposits of oil and gas, as when considering each of the proposals, some country always claims it would receive less than it deserves, and the proposal is unfair. Also, when the sea bottom is divided into lots to allocate them to each of the countries, one more problem arises - how to divide an oil deposit or its oil if the deposit is situated on the territory of more than one country. рhere are some sticking points of this kind, and it is hardly possible to reach an agreement on them as somebody"s interests will always be infringed upon.
The arguments on the Caspian oil have been caused by lack of complete and objective information on the mineral resources on the bottom of the sea and their allocation, and the most importantly - by absence of objective complex economic and ecological comparative analysis of outcomes of all the proposals on using the sea for every of the CaspiЮn countries (including the cost of extracting oil and gas and their transporting to the markets from each oil deposit, profit (losses) of fishing industry, and so on. Only complex approach to the determining the status of the Caspian Sea, using objective criteria of developing the sea natural resources as the resources of one natural and economic object, will produce most strategic benefits for all and each of the Caspian states from this or that option of using the sea. At the same time, it will be harder for some forces, the USA in the first place, to pursue their unilateral selfish interests in the region.