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Kerry's Convention Boost Lags Past Election Years, Polls Show

To contact the reporter on this story:

Jesse Westbrook in Washington at [email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Glenn Holdcraft at [email protected].

Last Updated: August 9, 2004 00:05 EDT

Iowa Futures Market

The Iowa Electronic Markets shows Bush leading in election futures contracts with 51.5 Sunday compared with 48.6 for Kerry. The price of a Kerry futures contracts slipped from 51.6 on July 26, the first day of the Democratic National Convention in Boston. Bush's re-election contracts rose from 49.2 at the start of the Democratic convention.

The futures trade on a scale of 0-100. After the election, the contracts on the winner will pay out $1 and the losing candidate's contracts will expire worthless. The market is operated by the University of Iowa's Henry B. Tippie College of Business. The institution is based in Iowa City.

Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief campaign strategist, predicted media coverage of the four-day Democratic convention would allow Kerry to surge ahead by as many as 15 percentage points.

The Democratic National Convention ``was historic, measured by the fact there was no convention bounce,'' said Stephen Schmidt, a spokesman for the Bush campaign.