主题：【文摘】世卫组织40年中首次将警戒级别提至最高级6级 -- 葡萄
家园 根据BBC的报道，因为澳大利亚的疫情比较糟糕，加上 南半球的冬季正是“流感季节（flu season）”，所以世卫发出严重警告。澳洲的同学多加小心！
在美国的同学请参考美国卫生部的报告和 Guidance.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm
世卫或因澳洲疫情宣布流感大爆发
BBC 2009-06-10
随着甲型H1N1流感疫情的持续扩散和澳大利亚疫情的急剧恶化，世卫组织表示可能宣布流感疫情大爆发。
世卫组织助理总干事福田敬二透露，世卫组织“已非常接近”宣布流感疫情大爆发，即将流感疫情警告升高至最高的六级。
他解释说，世卫组织目前正在努力确保各方对流感疫情大爆发有正确的理解，以免有关宣布造成恐慌。
世界卫生组织已经40余年没有宣布过全球性的流感疫情大爆发。
世界卫生组织需要得到确凿证据显示甲型H1N1流感已经在北美以外地区出现较大人传人疫情，才能宣布流感全球性大爆发。
澳大利亚境内感染甲型H1N1流感的人数在过去一个星期内翻了四番，目前已经超过1200人，成为北美以外受感染人数最多的国家。
BBC驻澳大利亚记者默瑟报道，维多利亚州及其首府墨尔本是疫情最为严重地区，当地受感染者已经超过1000人。
疫情
福田敬二强调，流感疫情大爆发界定的是病毒传播的地理范围，因此即使宣布六级流感疫情警告，并不意味着疾病本身更为严重。
根据最新统计，目前已经有73个国家的超过2.6万人感染甲型H1N1流感，共有142名被感染者死亡。
墨西哥是感染者死亡人数最多的国家，至今为止已经有108人死亡，不过该国确认感染人数仍不超过6000。
而美国则是受感染者最多的国家，至今已有1.32万人确认感染，其中27人死亡。
加拿大则有2100多人感染，3人死亡。另外智利有2人死亡，哥斯达黎加和多米尼各则各有1人死亡。
中国内地截至目前已经确诊102例感染甲型H1N1流感病例，另外香港和台湾各有41例和21例。
WHO 'set to declare flu pandemic'
UN health officials are expected to declare the first global flu pandemic in 40 years, after holding emergency talks on the swine flu crisis.
The World Health Organization called the meeting after a steep rise in the number of cases in Australia.
A BBC correspondent says it has little option but to declare a pandemic now there are nearly 28,000 recorded cases.
Reports say that the WHO had already told member countries it had decided to raise the alert to pandemic level.
Hong Kong said it was closing all its nurseries and primary schools for two weeks following 12 school cases.
The last global flu pandemic came in 1968 over the Hong Kong flu.
That pandemic killed about one million people.
A disease is classed as a pandemic when transmission between humans becomes widespread in at least two regions of the world.
Anxiety management
The latest virus emerged in Mexico in April and since then thousands of cases have been confirmed throughout North and South America.
The H1N1 strain has spread to 74 countries but the WHO has so far resisted labelling the outbreak a full-blown pandemic.
SWINE FLU - THE BASICS
# Symptoms usually similar to seasonal flu
# It is a new version of the H1N1 strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic
# Current treatments do work, but there is no vaccine
# Good personal hygiene, such as washing hands, covering nose when sneezing advised
WHO chief Margaret Chan talked to officials from eight countries with large flu outbreaks on Wednesday in an attempt to confirm the spread of the disease.
She said she believed the situation could be regarded as a pandemic but wanted clear evidence before making an announcement.
The BBC's Imogen Foulkes, in Geneva, says that while the number of cases has made the declaration inevitable, the problem is that the pandemic phase system is designed for a very different type of virus.
WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said it had been expecting something more like the deadlier bird flu.
"It was believed that the next pandemic would be something like H5N1 bird flu, where you were seeing really high death rates, and so there were people who believed we might be in a kind of apocalyptic situation and what we're really seeing now with H1N1 is that in most cases the disease is self-limiting," he told the BBC.
"Let's say 98 or 99% of the people we so far know to be affected recover without any need of hospitalisation.
The WHO will have to manage the global anxiety the declaration of a pandemic will generate, our correspondent says.
It is concerned not to trigger panic measures such as border closures and travel bans and is expected to advocate careful medical management, including the moderate use of anti-viral drug tamiflu.
Using it on a widespread preventative scale could simply create drug resistance, our correspondent adds.
Clear signal
The WHO's move follows Australia's confirmation of more than 1,200 cases - a four-fold increase in a week.
All primary schools and nurseries in Hong Kong are to shut for 14 days from Friday in a bid to contain the virus, the territory's chief executive Donald Tsang said.
It follows confirmation that 12 secondary school pupils have contracted the illness. Secondary schools are not yet being ordered to close.
At least 50 people are now confirmed to have the virus in the territory.
The head of the WHO's global influenza programme, Keiji Fukuda, said the situation had "evolved a lot" in recent days.
"We are getting close to knowing that we are in a pandemic situation," he said.
Although most sufferers experience normal flu symptoms and make a full recovery, the WHO has confirmed 141 deaths from 27,737 cases.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/8094353.stm
Published: 2009/06/11 14:12:18 GMT
BBC MMIX
家园 传染病的严重跟传播的范围和疾病的恶性程度有关 这个疾病的恶性程度是不太高----发展中国家1%的死亡率，发达国家0.2%的死亡率，但是传播面积大了
两者的乘积也就大了
家园 住在传说中的加拿大疫区，一点也没感觉到有什么流行病的迹象 没人戴口罩、没人呆在家里，周末电影院爆满，逛街的mm越来越多穿得越来越少。
电视上也只是偶尔提提这病毒还在某星球上流行，最多有几个防疫专家跑出来“建议”大家少出门、勤洗手。这哪有一丁点需要警戒的味道啊。
家园 也就中国卫生部忽悠来了50亿，有钱没地方花了。继续忽悠。 有钱去防治其它更严重的传染病不好？非要忽悠资源去对付一个小小的普通流感。纯粹地推卸责任。
美国也一样，
”没人戴口罩、没人呆在家里，周末电影院爆满，逛街的mm越来越多穿得越来越少。“
家园 中国也一样 没人戴口罩、没人呆在家里，周末电影院爆满，逛街的mm越来越多穿得越来越少。“
卫生部怎么忽悠你了，提醒你注意难道不好么
家园 兄弟这么说有点不负责任哈 我记得有次CCTV节目采访卫生防疫的专家，有提到这个问题，当时的答复大意是有几个原因：
一、由于是新传染病，都不是很了解，必须提高警惕性；
二、中国和美国的环境不一样，人口密度大，一旦发生传染很难控制‘
三、易感人群基数大，即使致死率低也有可能造成死亡的绝对数大；
四、医疗环境不均衡，扩散到农村地区可能会引起大问题。
说的应该还是比较中肯的。
家园 我看了两个星期就有现在的结论了．特别是老癦改数据以后． １， 业务水平太次．光吃饭不干活．
２，这个已经被日本打脸．
３． 这个就是用普世来遮脸．只有这种病吗？其它病的病人的人命不值钱．
４． 啥大问题？如果治不了，什么城市农村都改不了．如果治得了，再乡下也没问题．５０亿，且够了．
实际就是卫生部业务水平低下，推卸责任．如果这次也是这么鬼混过去，下次还这个Ｐ样．
一个多月前，钟南山被迫公开检讨．好笑的是，钟南山检讨时留了后门，说根据啥啥，猪流感死亡率比普通流感要高一点，所以还是应该重视一下． 其实当时就很清楚，猪流感死亡率不单不比普通流感要高，而且要低几个数量级．钟南山被迫公开检讨几天以后，就越来越难隐瞒，月来越清楚．