主题：【文摘】在资本市赢利 听一个职业炒手的终极感悟 1 -- 脖子

脖子兄,犹如在说:看我兰花点穴手.

而拙老师是:他强由他强,我自明月照山岗

按拙老师的方法,资质差者如我,培养根基,慢慢做去,亦可求个强身健体,在资质相同的情况下,在某一时间段,尤其在最初,脖子兄的方法胜.然而时间段一拉长,就见出来了.

http://www.stockbook.cn/php/viewthread.php?tid=47369&highlight=%C7%F7%CA%C6%B8%FA%D7%D9

Annual Performance 10 Years

1997 0.00%

1998 0.00%

1999 -1.82%

2000 21.76%

2001 -0.28%

2002 47.14%

2003 -15.84%

2004 -4.51%

2005 -15.01%

2006 -10.73%

Currency Denomination- US Dollars

Track Record Prepared by - N/A

2006 Monthly Return YTD Return Assets Under Mgt

11/30/06 3.60% -10.73% 16,261,000

10/31/06 -3.55% -13.83% 16,609,000

09/30/06 -2.47% -10.66% 30,337,000

08/31/06 -3.22% -8.39% 31,460,000

07/31/06 -3.92% -5.35% 32,590,000

06/30/06 -7.25% -1.48% 33,970,000

Trading Description:

DCM uses two trading systems -- the original Dunn Trading System (\\\"DTS\\\") and the Targets of Opportunity System (\\\"TOPS\\\"). DTS was first implemented in 1974 and has been modified from time to time as research indicated improvements. Its basic strategy, described below, has never changed. There are three programs traded under DTS: Standard (diversified), WMA (financial) and CWMA (currency). WMA is the only one of the DTS programs that is being offered. TOPS was developed by Dunn in 1989, as a new approach to trading in the futures markets. There are also three programs traded under TOPS: D-TOPS (diversified), F-TOPS (financial) and C-TOPS (currency). F-TOPS is the only one of the TOPS programs being offered.

The basic trading strategy for of DCM\\\'s WMA programs is to hold continuous positions (either long or short) with the major price trend of each future in the portfolio. This approach is designed to capture a substantial fraction of the total profit potential from important changes in a future\\\'s price. DTS does not seek to predict when the next important move will occur nor when a particular future or group of futures will enter a choppy and unprofitable trading phase. The system therefore attempts to maintain a balanced and diversified risk posture for each account. This approach is expected to contain the inevitable series of small losses and whipsaws within tolerable limits and leave the accounts in a position to benefit from major price trends whenever they develop. In general terms, DTS is a technical, long-term, major trend following, reversal system. All decisions necessary to implement the DTS strategy are derived from proprietary computer programs designed by Dunn. These programs seek to identify the major trends and turning points for each future and to determine the changes required to maintain a balanced and diversified risk posture for each managed portfolio.

The basic trading strategy underlying TOPS is to constantly monitor dynamic market parameters and to selectively buy or sell futures whenever trading opportunities are indicated. A trading opportunity in a future is signaled when its price reaches a significant level determined by TOPS. Dunn believes that these significant levels indicate that unusual market movement (either up or down) is likely to occur. Therefore, the market is entered, either long or short, and the position is held until a liquidation level is reached. The liquidation level is determined by market parameters and may be either a profit taking or a stop-loss point. Each future in the TOPS portfolio is expected to be out of the market often, awaiting the identification of potential new opportunities. TOPS is a technical, medium-term, opportunistic, trend-following system. The decisions that implement the TOPS strategy are derived from proprietary computer programs designed by Dunn. These programs perform the calculations necessary to identify price levels that Dunn considers significant in the context of a dynamic market environment. These price levels identify potentially favorable buying and selling opportunities for each future in the portfolio. The number of contracts bought or sold is based on the current value of the account and the risk associated with each future.

From time to time, market conditions may be such that, in the opinion of Dunn, execution of trades recommended by DTS or TOPS would be difficult or involve undue risk. In these unusual instances, which Dunn estimates will affect less than 5% of the trading decisions, the computer recommendations may be modified or not taken by Dunn. In addition, the market may occasionally present unique trading opportunities (not signaled by DTS or TOPS) that Dunn may enter into, using its general risk control methodology.

Dunn was organized in September 1974 and began managing commodity accounts in October 1974. Its main business is the management of commodity trading portfolios. It serves as general partner and trading advisor for several limited partnership commodity funds and as trading advisor for other commodity funds and for private accounts.

03-06年的表现一直下滑，对比S&P 500,US Dollar Index,CME Cu-index,可以知道，当价格走势明朗的时候DUNN的系统可以发挥优势，一旦经历波折，就显出了单纯的价格趋势系统的弊端，也可以容易的看出，DUNN是一位长期的仓位持有者。06年下半年的表现也如此一斑，可以断定，DUNN在这几年因选错交易标的而吃了大亏。廉颇老矣。

解决的问题是，你告诉我们：在猜大盘猜趋势时，猜错了怎么办？

　　老拙在预测大盘时，错过不少次，但没有对实盘造成大的影响，这是用“四项基本原则”最有优势的地方。

用别的办法或许也能挣到钱，远远跑赢大盘，但用“四项基本原则”可以安安心心、能睡着觉地挣钱，这是跟别的办法最大的不同！

脖子兄所举例的abc阶段，不管基于对大势的判断正确与否，只要出手买股票，老拙的四项基本原则就可以保证投资的安全和收益。

安全：即使大势判断失误，被套心理不慌，趋势反转的时候，可能是最早解套的。

收益：如果判断正确，高于基金或者指数的收益目前看来是可以保证的。

后来都没敢满仓，我也是看了老拙的文章，再加上自己的进步，后来才又满仓的。当然，看了你的文章后，溜了一些。因此，老拙的四项基本原则可能是正确持有的方法之一。当然，你的趋势分析可能也行。这个没有一定之规的。

年初我玩豫光金铅，全仓扔一次买一次就增加100股，连做成7次。股价升了60%，盈利却是100%。然后我就觉得高拋低吸是王道了，可以获利远超过平均利润。你猜对大盘，猜对版块，100天获利100%，我不认为你比我连续做高拋低吸更有可复制性。

现在我认为，连续高拋低吸的做法是不正确的撞大运。在你猜错大盘、选错板块以后，说不定你的主意也会变。如果有人能连续猜对大盘的中期走势，并选对热门板块，这是一个超级股神，两年获利100倍会和玩一样简单。