主题：【原创】巴基斯坦要是倒下…… -- 晨枫

當時塔利班已將亡。

但核心的阿蓋達份子包括拉登在內已知藏在鄰近阿巴邊境的Tora Bora內。

Tora Bora並不是大範圍。接近巴基斯坦。這些餘下的阿蓋達份子是其核心。擊破及殲滅之應該是「反恐」戰的最高目標。而這亦是最佳機會。而在美國付款的北方聯盟軍隊亦已從阿境向Tora Bora進發。

這些核心份子的唯一生路是逃向巴基斯坦。而鄰近阿富汗山區的巴基斯坦軍閥一向都是巴基斯坦的頭痛問題。在這情況下，如果讓這些阿蓋達份子逃向巴境，只會讓他們可以死灰復燃及茁壯。

但奇怪地當年在通向巴基斯坦那重要的峽口，並無任何美軍以完成這個包圍網。

這些核心的阿蓋達份子包括拉登在內，就在12月初大部份徒步地「短征」向巴基斯坦出逃。

美國事後宣稱他們不知拉登及其核心份子在那裏。但從這事後至今，漏出來的情報顯示並不是如此。美方是明確知道拉登及其死黨在Tora Bora。而拉登藏匿在此，亦不是甚麼大秘密。這是當時美國報紙的報導。

The hunt for Osama bin Laden may be narrowing to a network of caves near the village of Tora Bora, in Afghanistan's eastern White Mountains. Mr. Bin Laden has been seen in the last four days, spending his days in caves and moving around on horseback by night, according to local intelligence reports.

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下面的鏈接是New York Times整理出當時的大慨情況。當然美國高層心中想甚麼，這是最大機密。但為何Brig. Gen. James N. Mattis 的請求會被拒。這是甚麼原因？

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A number of American officers were now convinced that this was about to happen at Tora Bora, too.

One of them was Brig. Gen. James N. Mattis, the commander of some 4,000 marines who had arrived in the Afghan theater by now. Mattis, along with another officer with whom I spoke, was convinced that with these numbers he could have surrounded and sealed off bin Laden's lair, as well as deployed troops to the most sensitive portions of the largely unpatrolled border with Pakistan. He argued strongly that he should be permitted to proceed to the Tora Bora caves. The general was turned down. An American intelligence official told me that the Bush administration later concluded that the refusal of Centcom to dispatch the marines - along with their failure to commit U.S. ground forces to Afghanistan generally - was the gravest error of the war.

......

Tora Bora was the one time after the 9/11 attacks when United States operatives were confident they knew precisely where Osama bin Laden was and could have captured or killed him. Some have argued that it was Washington's last chance; others say that although it will be considerably more difficult now, bin Laden is not beyond our reach. But the stakes are considerably higher than they were nearly four years ago, and terrain and political sensibilities are far more our natural enemies now.

是接近邊境，但並不在邊境上。

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Tora Bora (Pashto: تورا بورا, “black dust” ) is a cave complex situated in the White Mountains (Safed Koh) of eastern Afghanistan ( 34°07′N, 70°13′E), in the Pachir Wa Agam District of Nangarhar province, approximately 50km west of the Khyber Pass and 10km north of the border of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.

During the US invasion of Afghanistan it was one of the last strongholds of the Taliban. As the suspected hide-out of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, it was the theatre in December 2001 for the Battle of Tora Bora.

當年只要在通往巴基斯坦的路上空降特種兵。基地組織已被包了餃子。

但美國與基地組織是symbiosis的關係，沒了Al Queda，美國再用甚麼借口在中亞駐兵？

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你再想想。