主题：不归点（The Point of No Return） -- 种植园土

Can India Embarrass China In A Limited Military Conflict?

Can India ward off a limited Chinese attack along the Line of Actual Control or the international boundary in Sikkim?

The answer lies in analysing force concentration and capabilities that the two countries bring to bear on the common border.

印度是否可以在实际控制线或锡金邦边界抵挡住中国的进攻么？答案隐藏在对于两国在边界部署军力的聚集和战力情况的分析中。

1、On 18 July, the South China Morning Post reported that China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had moved “tens of thousands of tonnes of military vehicles and equipment into Tibet”, quoting the PLA mouthpiece. Many such moves in the past one week, seen in the light of aggressive statements made by China’s foreign ministry and the blatant warmongering rhetoric from the country’s state-owned media, has triggered a debate in India. Although reports suggest that the PLA has not mobilised troops towards the border with India and that the recent live-fire exercise in Tibet was a routine affair – putting off the chances of a full-blown military conflict, prospects of a peaceful walk-back from the brink appear to be shrinking with every passing day.

当7月18日，南华早报报道中引用官方渠道声称解放军已经将上万吨军事装备和设备运往西藏。这仅是过去一周来数次军事部署之一，配结合着中国外交部激进的言论和中国国有媒体露骨的战争咆哮，引发了印度国内对潜在战争的争论。尽管这篇报道显示解放军并未向边境部署部队且近期西藏的实兵演习仅仅是例行安排，这减少了全面军事冲突的可能性，但是从交火走向和平的可能性正逐步减少。

2、Though the Doklam crisis will most likely not lead to war, a localised conflict is indeed possible if the PLA decides to up the ante – something China recently indicated as possible.

尽管郎洞危机很可能不会引发战争，但局域冲突的可能性依然存在，尤其是在解放军加大赌注情况下，正如中国最近暗示的一样。

3、Under these circumstances, the question that arises is if India can ward off a limited Chinese attack along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) or the international boundary in Sikkim. The answer lies in analysing force concentration and capabilities that the two countries bring to bear on the common border.

考虑到这些情况，自然而然的问题就是印度是否可以在实际控制线或锡金邦边界抵挡住中国的进攻么？答案隐藏在对于两国在边界部署军力的聚集和战力情况的分析中。

4、There are some enduring misconceptions about the military balance along the Sino-Indian border. The most common of these is that China’s localised military strength along the border far outweighs India’s. However, studying the deployment of troops and air assets along the border, and particularly in Sikkim – the site of the current stand-off, one arrives at an entirely different picture.

公众对关于中国边界军事力量平衡的问题一直存在误解。其中最普遍的一条是中国在边境地区的军事力量远强于印度。但是，通过对于陆军和空军部署的分析，会得出截然不同的结论，尤其在目前发生对峙的锡金邦。

Ground Forces

陆军Eastern Sector

东线

5、The Indian Army has nine of its 12 mountain divisions deployed in the eastern sector. Each of these divisions usually consists of 15,500 combat troops and 8,000 support elements. Of these, three divisions – seventeenth, twenty-seventh and twentieth – are deployed near the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction, the site of the ongoing stand-off. These divisions are based in Gangtok (Sikkim), Binnaguri (West Bengal) and Kalimpong (West Bengal) respectively, guarding India’s vulnerable chicken’s neck, the Siliguri Corridor, which connects seven northeastern states with the rest of India.

印度陆军将其12个山地师中的9个部署在东线。每个师一般包括15500作战部队和8000人的支援部队。其中，第17、27和20师部署在目前发生对峙的印-中-不三方边境。这三个师分别部署在Gantok（锡金邦），Binnagguri（西孟加拉邦），Kalimpong（西孟加拉邦），防守着脆弱的印度鸡脖——西里古里走廊，该走廊连接着印度东北邦和印度其他地区。

6、Three mountain divisions – fifth, twenty-first and seventy-first – are deployed in Bomdila (Arunachal Pradesh), Rangiya (Assam) and Missamari (Assam). Bomdila is located just 170km from Tawang, an important centre of Tibetan Buddhism claimed by China as a part of the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR). Additionally, three mountain divisions of the Indian Army – second, fifty-sixth and fifty-seventh – are deployed in Dibrugarh (Assam), Zakhama (Nagaland) and Leimakhong (Manipur) respectively.

第五师、第二十一师和第七十一师分别部署在Bomdila（阿鲁纳恰尔邦，咱们的藏南）、Rangiya（阿萨姆邦）和Missamari（阿萨姆邦）。Bomdila距离达旺170公里，后者是藏传佛教中心，中国认为是其西藏自治区的一部分。此外，第二师、第56师和第57师分别部署在Dibrugarh（阿萨姆邦 ）、Zakhama（那加兰邦）以及Leimakhong（曼尼普尔区）。

Sino-Indian border deployments (units located via IHS Jane’s database, August 2016)

7、Against this, China has two mountain motorised infantry brigades and a mechanised infantry brigade close to the Indian border. While the mountain infantry brigades are based in Nyingchi region of Tibet facing Arunachal Pradesh, the only mechanised infantry brigade deployed close to the LAC is stationed in Lhasa, Tibet’s capital.

中国方面，在印度边界部署有两个山地机械化步兵旅和一个机械化步兵旅。山地机械化步兵旅部署在藏南对面的林芝地区，其余离实际控制线最近的步兵旅则部署在拉萨，西藏首府。

Western Sector

西线

8、In the western sector, India has an infantry division and a mountain division. While the former is stationed in Leh, the latter is based in Dras. India also has an armoured brigade (with over 100 T-72 tanks) to cover the flat approaches from Tibet towards India’s crucial defences at Chushul.

在西线，印度部署有一个步兵师和一个山地师。前者驻扎在Leh，后者驻扎在Dras。此外印度还有一个装甲旅（装备有100辆t-72坦克），可以防守从印度战略要地Chushul到西藏的平缓地区。

9、The Indian side of the LAC in Ladakh sector is much more conducive for mechanised warfare than the Chinese side. In the Sino-Indian war of 1962, six vintage AMX-13 tanks of the Indian Army, which were airlifted to Chushul, inflicted severe losses and delay on the advancing Chinese Army.