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主题:【原创】阿根廷比索,请不要为我哭泣 -- 须弥一芥

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家园 美联储旧金山分行的一篇博客

具体协议文本没找到,找到这篇《通过货币互换协议依靠中国》(Banking on China through Currency Swap Agreements):

外链出处

虽然不是官方文章,但博主貌似在美联储旧金山分行专门负责这摊的分析员(“CINDY LI is an analyst at the Country Analysis Unit in the Division of Financial Institution Supervision and Credit (FISC) at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She monitors banking, regulatory, and economic developments in Asia, with a special focus on Greater China and the ASEAN region. ”)。这个总该靠谱吧。摘录如下:

These currency swaps can be viewed as a credit line that both sides can draw upon at a pre-determined exchange rate. They are different from the liquidity swap lines that the Federal Reserve established with several central banks during the Global Financial Crisis, which are essentially repo transactions based on prevailing exchange rates. In contrast, China’s bilateral currency swap agreements are designed to facilitate settlement in renminbi. China’s agreement with Pakistan, for instance, specified that the use of currency swap agreement should be based on either bilateral trade or direct investment transactions.

In practice, however, China’s currency swap agreements have also been activated as a source of liquidity for reasons not directly linked to trade. Again using Pakistan as an example, the country reportedly tapped an equivalent of US$ 600 million (out of a total of RMB 10 billion, or US$ 1.6 billion) under the swap agreement in 2013 to shore up its reserves and averted an imminent currency crisis. Granted, tapping the swap line only had cosmetic effects on the country’s balance of payment statistics, and did not improve the fundamentals of the country’s external positions, but it did provide a way for Pakistan to obtain liquidity at a time of emergency without further adverse impacts on its currency value. (Pakistan eventually got a US$6.6 billion loan from the IMF that helped stabilize its economy.) In a similar move, Argentina reportedly drew upon its swap line with China to combat a shortage of USD funding in 2014.

China does not provide USD liquidity under bilateral currency swap agreements, but both Pakistan and Argentina were able to convert RMB to USD in the offshore RMB market. In other words, swap agreements have made it possible for China’s counterparts to navigate troubled times on the back of China’s vast foreign exchange reserves and its strong currency.

At the moment, the total size of such swaps is still small when compared with China’s foreign exchange reserves, but further expansion of these programs could pose new challenges for managing RMB exchange rates. In a scenario where foreign exchange reserves are declining and RMB depreciation expectations are rising, the use of these swap agreements for liquidity purpose can add to downward pressure on the Chinese currency to the extent that the other side sells a large amount of RMB to obtain USD funding.

These concerns can dissipate with further internationalization of the RMB, if the RMB becomes a widely used reserve currency and RMB denominated securities are to gain significance in international capital markets. The upcoming review of the Chinese currency’s inclusion in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket in November is an important step in this direction.

倒数第二段提到,这些协议如果继续扩大后的可能风险是使人民币汇率难以管理(即如果大家都像阿根廷这样用人民币换美元),但最后一段又说,一旦人民币成为储备货币,这个担心就没什么必要了。人家可是对违约的风险只字不提啊。

上面的引文还提到另一点,即这些协议的用途主要是双边贸易和直接投资,虽然巴基斯坦和阿根廷都曾经拿来稳定本币。还给了一个链接:

外链出处

这是巴国央行行长解释与中国的货币互换协议,其中特别提到:

The objective of the swap is to 1) promote bilateral trade, 2) finance direct investment

between the two countries in the respective local currencies of the two countries and 3) any

other ‘purpose’ as mutually agreed between the two central banks.

上文第三点(“any other ‘purpose’ as mutually agreed between the two central banks.”)就是为什么当阿国央行需要用人民币做它途时,得征求中国央行同意。另一说是中阿最近签的货币互换协议允许阿国自由用人民币换美元。这是西语公报的链接:

外链出处

我不懂西语,用谷歌翻译看了下,其中好像有“At present, the yuan can be converted freely in dollars”以及“in this have significantly improved agreement lascondicionesde use, flexible deadlines”(中间貌似 the conditions of use)的字样。

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