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Dollar Trades Near Six-Month High as U.S. to Outperform Europe

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded near a six-month high against the euro and headed for the biggest weekly gain versus the yen in more than four months on expectations the U.S. economy will outperform those of Europe and Japan.

U.S. consumer confidence rose this month, a report today may show, a day after the Commerce Department said retail sales surged by the most in seven months. The dollar has gained more than 2 yen in the past week as data showed employers hired more workers than expected and the trade deficit unexpectedly shrank.

``Sentiment is now firmly in favor of the dollar,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief foreign-exchange analyst in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc. ``U.S. growth is the biggest focus right now, and all the indicators are pointing up.''

Against the euro, the dollar was at $1.2678 at 7:15 a.m. in London, from $1.2695 late yesterday in New York, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. It rose as high as $1.2665 earlier today, the strongest since Nov. 3. Barclays yesterday raised its three-month forecast to $1.26, from $1.30.

The euro was little changed after state-owned Russian news service RIA Novosti reported that Russia will repay early some of its $43 billion debt to the Paris Club after agreeing terms with a group of creditor nations.

Against the yen, the dollar was at 106.83, from 106.77, heading for a 1.7 percent gain this week. The U.S. currency may advance to 109 yen next week, Umemoto said.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 88.2 from 87.7 last month, based on the median estimate of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. U.S. retail sales climbed 1.4 percent, twice the median forecast.

`Achieved So Much'

The New York Board of Trade's Dollar Index, which measures the currency's value against a basket of six counterparts, was at 85.67, its highest since Oct. 22, based on closing prices. The level is above the average closing price over the past 200 days, which may lead to further gains.

``We've achieved so much technically and there's so much good data that you can't help but buy the dollar,'' said Luke Waddington, head of trading and interbank currency sales in Tokyo at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. ``It may not be as fast from here, but the trend is up.''

A technical chart suggested the dollar's rally may wane. The U.S. currency's 14-day relative strength index against the euro was at 32.54, the lowest since Feb. 9. The index is a gauge of momentum in a given period, and a level above 70 or below 30 signals a change in direction.

A government report showed Japanese machinery orders unexpectedly rose 1.9 percent in March. The median forecast was for a 1.5 percent decline.

China, Yen

The yen also headed for a losing week on diminishing expectations China, Japan's biggest export destination, will let the yuan fluctuate more freely. The yen has tended to advance when futures traders increased bets China will let its currency rise, according to Bloomberg data.

China's central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said media reports of an expected revaluation of the yuan on May 18 are not ``correct,'' the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Any sign China is ready to loosen the yuan, which has been pegged at around 8.3 per dollar since 1995, will help the yen, said Stephen Halmarick, co-head of market analysis in Sydney at Citigroup Global Markets Australia Ltd.

``As market expectations for a move from China gathers steam, the yen should benefit,'' Halmarick said.

Not `Dynamic'

Faster sales growth may bolster expectations of how much the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year. The Fed on May 3 lifted its benchmark target for an eighth time since June, to 3 percent, while the European Central Bank the next day kept its comparable rate at 2 percent. The Bank of Japan has left borrowing costs at virtually zero since March 2001.

German Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who is also an ECB council member, yesterday said German growth will be ``not quite as dynamic in the rest of the year. Negative surprises can't be ruled out.''

``People are looking for justification to buy dollars,'' said Thomas O'Malley, head of currency portfolio management in San Francisco at Barclays Global Investors, which has more than $1 trillion in assets. ``U.S. economic growth is likely to be better than those in other developed markets like Europe and Japan. I don't see a whole lot of support for the euro or yen.''

JPMorgan Chase & Co., among the banks most bearish on the dollar at the end of last quarter, yesterday joined ABN Amro Holding NV and Citigroup Inc. in raising its dollar forecast since April 1 as the U.S. economy extends its expansion.

JPMorgan now forecasts the U.S. currency at $1.30 at year- end, compared with a previous estimate of $1.34.

To contact the reporter on this story:

John Brinsley in Tokyo at [email protected];

Rodrigo Davies in London at [email protected]

Last Updated: May 13, 2005 02:23 EDT