主题:《茗谈》五十九:下届美国总统 -- 本嘉明
EMAIL:[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
DATE:2011-12-10 20:04:53
to go. TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
Syria. Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
deploying SOF for this mission. Notice all the talk in the press now
about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
want to build. I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.
The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
territory and set up refugee camps. I asked what levers Iran and Syria
have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK. He said
(half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
negotiate with him.) But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
via this faction.
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🙂一个战略咨询公司 Levelworm 字29 2012-02-29 08:58:02
🙂links? thanks. parishg 字0 2012-02-27 23:07:13
🙂点左边的年份就可以看不同时间的 Levelworm 字93 2012-02-27 23:38:10
🙂摘一节关于叙利亚的
🙂多谢 Levelworm 字50 2012-06-30 12:21:56
🙂-- 系统屏蔽 --。
🙂Warburg? Levelworm 字48 2012-02-26 00:11:33
🙂-- 系统屏蔽 --。