主题：西方，西方媒体，中国，俄国，智者。 -- CaoMeng

失踪的章页 -对俄罗斯的个人看法-二十年以后

Through Western Eyes – Russia Misconstrued

通过西方的瞳孔-俄国是整么被误解的

In Russia, even the past is unpredictable

“在俄国，连历史都不能被预测”

Rene De Obaldia

（草蜢注：Rene De Obaldia是香港出生的法国剧作家和诗人）

As I queued in Paris clutching a one-way ticket to Moscow, Russia circa 1997 seemed to offer infinite promise – adventure, exoticism, even some sex… cash too – and especially, an escape from the stultifying boredom and bureaucracy of old Europe into the wildest frontier of global finance.

当我抓着去莫斯科的单程票在巴黎排队的时候，1997年的俄国像提供着无限的承诺-冒险，异国情调，甚至性交。。。还有现钞-特别是，在最疯狂的世界金融边陲去逃避老欧洲压抑的无聊和官僚主义。

Only the blind or hopelessly retrograde could fail to see that this young country was throwing off the shackles of Communism, striding boldly into a brave new world.

只有瞎子和没有希望的退步者才会看不到这个年轻的国度正在扔掉共产主义的锁链，勇敢地大步迈向美丽新世界。

On the emerging markets debt desk in Paris, while extending bounteous repo credit to the “best” Russian banks, and brokering Soviet and Russian bonds to our moreadventurous clients, we had made sport of our obstructive but dim-witted compliance officers, filling our personal accounts with Russian bonds and equities.

在巴黎的新兴市场债务服务台，在延长宽裕回购信贷，和向我们更冒险的客户经纪苏联和俄罗斯的债券的同时，我们取笑着我们乐于阻碍但机智缓慢的合规人员们，将我们自己的个人帐户中放满了俄国的债卷和股票。

But the real action was on the ground in Moscow – and what did I have to lose?

但真正的作为是在莫斯科-我又有什么可以失去的呢？

Two weeks later, flagging down a gypsy cab on the Sadovoe Koltso for a ride to the investment conference at the Mezhdunarodnaya, a Soviet-era hearse pulled up, offering me a ride for a modest 30 roubles.

两个星期以后，在Sadovoe Koltso大街打 “山寨”的士的时候，一辆苏联时代的殡车到来，向我提供了收费仅30卢布的服务。

While the omen was initially lost upon me, that afternoon I was dragged out of yet another stultifying Gazprom presentation by my friend Adam, calling from London with the news that the Hong Kong market was melting down.

这个预兆没有被我发觉，那天下午我就被我朋友亚当从又一个俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的呆滞演示中拖出来，他从伦敦打电话来告诉我香港股市完全雪崩了。

“Adam”, I replied, “sorry to hear that – but why am I supposed to care? I’m at a Russia conference…” By the end of that afternoon, I had realized why I should care…

“亚当”，我回答说，“很抱歉地听到这消息 - 但关我啥事啊？ 我在俄国开会。。。” 在那下午结束之前，我就明白为什么我需要关心了。。。

Great bubbles live in mortal terror of little termites – catalysts that ultimately trigger their demise.

大泡沫总是生活在对小白蚁的死亡恐怖之中 - 那是他们死亡的最终催化剂。

The Asian crisis was the pebble that triggered a Russian avalanche – a classical debt crisis terminating with refinance rates spiralling out of control; Russian financial markets went into a tailspin, ultimately crashing by more than 90%, as rates on

government debt went ballistic, repeatedly cresting at well over 100% per annum. It seemed that I had bought myself a ring-side seat for the end of the world – but alas, that seat was well inside the ring!

亚洲金融危机是造成俄国雪崩的小石头-一个经典的再融资利率失控的的债务危机；俄国金融市场被推向了深渊，最终崩溃到90%以上，当政府债卷利率完成了弹道导弹式滴上升，不止一次滴达到了100%的年利率。看起来，我给自己买了一张世界末日的环侧就座票 - 但问题是，我发现这座位完全在拳击场以内。

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