主题：【原创】数字来说话--为子玉兄的美元理论做注解 -- 种植园土

中国因素在于实质性地改变了工业国和原料国之间的力量对比

否则，任由中国走下去，原料国会纷纷崛起，美国、日本、欧洲都会被矮化

You are absolutely right. China factor is the true reason behind the shift of power from manufacturing nations to raw material providers.

But two points,

1. China needs to ask itself whether its current strategy is smart given it is a rising industrialized nation itself. China has squeezed its own environment, natural resources, its own cheap labor to extreme. China wants to continue like that?

It wants to be a second America, consuming oil 20m barrel a day and leaving its key national interest to the mercy of mid-easters???

You know this much better than I do. Do you trust those mid-eastern muslims?

IS THAT A SUSTAINABLE STRATEGY IN THE LONG RUN? hehe.

2. 原料国会纷纷崛起--no, they will only have temporary bubbles. Because they fail to utilize the money to cultivate a sophisticated labor force and an efficient political infrastructure. When resource price collapse, they went back to the stone age just as where THEY CAME FROM 10 YEARS AGO.

EASY WEALTH GETS SQUANDERED EASILY.

In the last two hundred years, very few 原料国 converted itself into a mature advanced nation. Canada is one exception, but it has US industrial investment and British political system as foundation. "advanced nation" is not measured by GDP/per capita--it is determined by a multitude of factors. Based on pure GDP/per capita, Saudi should be the most advanced nation in the world.

But it is not. So are many many African/Latin American nations. Majority of them squandered all their easily-gotten wealth.

EASY WEALTH GETS SQUANDERED EASILY.

For risk-averse rich men from China, most fled States, Canada, UK, Australia and European nations. Your own choice for your family/kids has shown your judgment. So do I.

原料国会纷纷崛起--Brazil will have big trouble soon.

We only see their party time for 10 years.

History is not linear and will not extrapolate forward for the next 10 years.

3. （1）记得两本书：一是the rise and fall of great powers （保罗肯尼迪《大国的兴衰》；二是the decline and fall of roman empire。

过度扩张--政府财政衰败--势力范围收缩--加剧衰败是帝国下降时期的典型症状。very true.

a. Romans suffered from civil war and barbarian invasion. It was two key sources of fiscal problems. Not for America. Hispanic was constrained in west states.

b. From a technical perspective, US' fiscal resource has not been fully explored. America's tax/GDP ratio is only 19%. Most advanced nations are already easily 2x that level.

decline的过程很漫长。

--Agree. But we need to first identify peak.

我把华尔街为了私利，转移技术至日本等国，看做是美国衰落的起点。

--华尔街 is a two-sided sword. Without Wall Street, Americans would not even have their first railway, first waterway... America would have just been a backwater natural resource provider inside the British empire.

YOU NEED TO READ THE HISTORY CAREFULLy.

Wall Street has been the trouble makers many times. Last time was 1929. When it WAS NOT WELL-REGULATED, its dark side overshadowed its positive effect and it is an evil force for destruction. That's the lesson to learn. That's why we need SEC and Securities and Exchange Act of 1934.

Without an efficient capital market, America would not be an innovation leader and there would be no rise of America in 1980s and 1990s again. There would be no Google, no Apple, no Microsoft...

YOU ARE SELECTIVELY READING HISTORY for your own argument.

转移技术至日本等国，看做是美国衰落的起点。

--no, the dry-up of innovation is the 衰落的起点。Technology lost value fast. 100 years ago, car making was cool and hot tech, but who viewed it today in this way?

1929 bubble was driven by the booming of radio technology.

--yes. I am not kidding. Radio is now junky tech...

SOURCE OF VITALITY COMES FROM CONTINUOUS INNOVATION AND GENERATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES, NOT safeguarding of old tech. That's why America can renaissance in 1980s, but UK can not even after WWI.

（4）美帝做不到千秋万代一统江湖--fully agree.

And it will contract for sure. And many Americans want it to do so too. Costs have overgrown benefits.

Our starting point of debate is the trashing of USD.

I think we have deviated from our starting point. And you hold certain sets of beliefs and selectively put data there.

My point is clear:

1. inflation is a global issue;

2. mild inflation could adjust the USD system without bankrupting it;

3. Zi Yu is bluffing about something that will not happen and he lacks technical knowhows in finance field;

4. A big storm is sure to hit Europe. It will bring down emerging market too.

5. technical details are as important as big picture views. Make sure we use the right statistics. Do not blah blah with billions of debt. The key stat is debt service ratio and debt/GDP ratio.

THE WORLD IS NOT LINEAR AND WE DO NOT HAVE CRYSTAL BALLS. Under crisis, anglo-saxons will adjust their nations and they are now the most flexible nations in the world.

10 years later, we will laugh at our debate here on this forum--maybe both of us are wrong or we both are right on certain points.

I put my ass and wealth firmly in North America, or jokingly, put my money where my mouth is. I share those quotes from blah blah with you.

我还是选择把财产留在美国，因为这里有最自由的市场（不代表是绝对自由的市场），

这个国家保障我能方便安全地跟所谓的国家利益，美元霸权对着干，让我采去各种方法来保护我个人财富，这种自由法制是其他国家无法给我的。

如果在一些大政府的国家，连把钱汇出境外都麻烦得很，说得不好听出了什么问题连人带财出走的不便跟半个世纪以前没什么长进。

在这点上，美国与其他的法治国家显出了更大的自信，但是这种自信都是经过了很多崩溃、衰退、恐慌的前例建立起来的。

所以一个国家要成长，起码要崩溃衰退恐慌好几次。