主题：【原创】闲话1 -- 井底望天

questions below. In case you do not understand his nice article.

比如说美国联储局主席直升飞机大本哥，说了一个词汇，叫做“量化宽松”。很多人就不是太懂，因为听起来倍高深。

其实说白了，换一句大白话，叫做“印钞票”，

两件事情，一个就是去买政府国债。

--the essence is new digital money printing. But it is slightly different from traditional FOMC rate cut: that move only impacts short-term inter-bank rate by buying treasury notes. QE impacts mainly LONG-term interest rates for all kinds of transactions.

美国政府，觉得短期信用还可以靠得住，可是长期信用，有一点让大家心里毛毛的。于是大家决定，俺们不如不买长期美国国债，只买短期的美国国债，

--Short term treasury notes have better liquidity, but lower return rates. Mid-east money and China money shifted to the short-maturity end during crisis years so that they will have BETTER bargaining power against the U.S. gov.: in banking, that's called renegotiation option. Banks usually lend shorter when they do not trust one corporation.

Here many foreign gov. are bankers now. During early 2000s, many central banks buy long-term gov. bonds, they learned tough lessons and also distorted U.S. mortgage market (Fed reserve lost control over long-term treasury notes and their interest rates, resulting in a flat yield curve. Many banks did stupid things in 2005-2006).

这样的话，风险不就小了嘛。

那么美国中期国债，就卖不动了。

--No, that's a strategic choice by China. China is sacrificing returns for better political bargaining.

而这个长期利率，就只有一个办法：美联储印钱自己买。

--Fed did the same thing before in 1930s. Nothing new.

那么美联储除了买美国政府的长期国债，来压低长期利率，同时做的，就是买机构债务，说白了，就是印钱给两房，让他们有钱借给大家买房子。

这两个举措，其实都是要稳定美国现在危机重重的房屋市场。

--Fed is using its unaudited balance sheet to boast up the whole US housing market. But I do not think it will be successful unless there is a global inflation forthcoming.

就是印钱给两房，让他们有钱借给大家买房子。--will create profit incentive for Fannie and Freddie to refinance for some homeowners.

但是也不是光要稳定房屋市场，而是对其他两个市场：资本市场和就业市场都希望有所帮助。

--Currently, if America wants to see recovery in these two markets, it need a -5% effective interest rate. I guess everyone here can figure out how to achieve that rate. Ben is silently implementing this policy now.

其实在现实社会里面，哪有这么非白及黑的情况。美联储放松银根这个货币政策，可以表现在压低基准利率，也可以表现在认购国债或者公司债来压低长期利率。

而美联储印出去的钱，可以交到私人公司手里，也可以交到政府手里，大家都拿出来花，你还分得清那些是财政政策，那些是货币政策？

所以你反正都是在印钱，那么就是看你印出来的钱，关键不是谁来花掉，而是花在哪里。

政府拿到手里的钱，估计一个用处，就是把本来就臃肿不堪，需要裁减的政府雇员队伍稳住。

--hehe. I expect to see more spending on infrastructure. Of course, your speculation also make sense since public employee unions are quite powerful...

那么是不是私人来到了美联储超级便宜利率的贷款，就可以帮助美国的就业市场？那也不一定。人家一转身，这些钱就进了股市了。

--New money from monetary policy will become deposit into banks and then deposit back into Fed reserve. Therefore, Fed QE is totally useless along the monetary policy option.

你修人行道，还要雇几个人干活呢，进了股市炒卖，最多就是雇了几个电脑干活而已。

--yes! That's why gov. might be more effective in stimulating REAL ECONOMY, OR MAIN street.

这个出路，就是中国。就是说，美国联储局要用洪水来冲中国。一方面是印钞票导致美元贬值，一方面就是要把通胀输出到中国。

--just deja vu of 1970s. Germany adjusted through exchange rate hike without domestic cost of inflation. 1970's Europe is exactly like today's China: under the fixed rate Bretton Woods system, with lots of trade surplus against the U.S. China refuses to adjust exchange rate, but, by depressing domestic credit growth (its policy mainly targets on monetary multiplier, NOT base money), economic growth and domestic labor cost (worse economy, no bargaining power by labor to increase salary). Therefore, a stabler fixed rate exchange system can be maintained.

Here, China is betting that it will not see a major downturn in its own economy and it has effective capital flow regulation (controlled hot money inflow) and a much bigger "belly"(at least larger than German's) so that Fed Reserve can not really achieve its objective.

Then medium-sized nations are to suffer... That's the power of G2...