主题:【原创】谈谈时间序列的平稳性(1) -- 万里风中虎
It's a misspecified model. The simple model is ADF. And your ADF already demonstrated there is no trend or drift. It's just a pure random walk. I'm not sure if the conclusion changes if you add in cycle. More importantly, ADF clearly says you should not use OLS. If you do, results are not valid. Regressing a random walk on time t very likely will give significant coefficient. But it's spurious and misleading.
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🙂我是23以上卖的,当时还发了帖子。 1 万里风中虎 字0 2010-02-04 05:19:16
🙂Questions 6 静默各自想拳经 字719 2010-02-02 20:13:36
🙂意见很对,所以我说是一个最简单的预测 2 万里风中虎 字117 2010-02-03 15:18:40
🙂It's not a simple model
🙂这当然是个misspecified的模型 4 万里风中虎 字355 2010-02-04 05:52:35
🙂No offence, but... 1 静默各自想拳经 字788 2010-02-04 09:36:50
🙂赞同老虎的从基础谈起 空白 字58 2010-02-04 09:28:12
🙂兄台是讲随机漫步吗? 1 面壁 字160 2010-02-04 04:41:35