主题：China-不要浪费 reserve on Greece -- parishg

The Euroland will separate into two lands: PIGs (except for Ireland) withdrew from Euroland and the Germany-France core will keep the Euro. But this change will weaken the investor's confidence in Euro.

The current Euro system is non-sustainable. A financial crisis is brewing and today's Euroland was yesterday's Asia in 1997.

Germany never wants to have Greece, Italy there with them in the Euroland. The Stability Act and 3% threshold were all designed against Italy and Greece. Now it is clear: Greece never qualified for Euro. It played statistical game--even more shamelessly than the Chinese gov.(at least Chinese gov. do not fake national debt). Italy charged every citizen a special "Euro tax" in 1997 to manage its economy to qualify for Euro. Germanic Europeans never have so much faith in Italian gov. statistics too.

Actually all PIGs are bit stupid: by locking themselves into Euroland, they lost precious tools to adjust trade deficit through periodic currency depreciation. Currency depreciation avoids the confrontation with other tough social issues. The benefit of Euro is very limited, except it saves your face for being a "European" or reduces your gov. spread a bit. Now currency depreciation tool is out, one has to deal with the rigid wage system and super-strong national unions, a common problem in all PIGs (except for Ireland).

Between a rock and a hard place.

付了6.5％的利息，这可是政府债券啊，6.5％的利息他们也是在饮鸩止渴。

--we still do not know how large is its deficit for 2010. Even the new 12.7% data is not reliable. I guess the current debt ratio of 125% is not true too.

Most importantly, Greece has a bloated public sector with many useless employees doing nothing there. Even the PM admitted that the whole gov. is highly corrupted at every level. Greece does not have the capacity to return the principal. Politicians will soon point fingers at Chinese blaming: look, it was serving those Chinese creditors, that I have to cut budget/jobs to make you suffer.

If Germans issue bonds, I will buy. I will not even want to touch the French bonds. France is in chronic deficit in the last decade--even during booming years, its budget was never balanced. France is another Spain/Greece, just with a bit smaller budget deficit.