主题：为什么说美元贬值是赖帐？ -- hwd99

通货膨胀分为两部分，消费物价的变化和工业品物价的变化。前者称为消费物价指数CPI，后者称为生产者物价指数PPI。我在http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#header里给出的是GDP平减指数（GDP deflator），是所有实物和服务的物价变化，介于CPI和PPI之间。这三者在某些年份有比较大的偏差是不奇怪的，但就长期而言，三者必定是同向变化的。

好，现在你要衡量中国外汇储备的购买力。中国的外汇储备主要用来买什么？是美国的消费品吗？显然不是，美国的消费品有很大部分是从中国进口的呢。中国从美国买的东西，大部分应该在PPI的范围内，这是你要注意的一点问题。

另外一点，你给大家1974－1985年的数据，有什么意思呢？我在上面解释过了，这正是美国通货膨胀最严重的一段时间，GDP平减指数很高，CPI当然也很高。但请你看看，从1983年开始，CPI的增长率是不是下降了很多？你为什么不把1985年以后的数据贴出来？你既然不干，我就替你贴了吧：

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVE

2009 0.03% 0.24%

2008 4.28% 4.03% 3.98% 3.94% 4.18% 5.02% 5.60% 5.37% 4.94% 3.66% 1.07% 0.09% 3.85%

2007 2.08% 2.42% 2.78% 2.57% 2.69% 2.69% 2.36% 1.97% 2.76% 3.54% 4.31% 4.08% 2.85%

2006 3.99% 3.60% 3.36% 3.55% 4.17% 4.32% 4.15% 3.82% 2.06% 1.31% 1.97% 2.54% 3.24%

2005 2.97% 3.01% 3.15% 3.51% 2.80% 2.53% 3.17% 3.64% 4.69% 4.35% 3.46% 3.42% 3.39%

2004 1.93% 1.69% 1.74% 2.29% 3.05% 3.27% 2.99% 2.65% 2.54% 3.19% 3.52% 3.26% 2.68%

2003 2.60% 2.98% 3.02% 2.22% 2.06% 2.11% 2.11% 2.16% 2.32% 2.04% 1.77% 1.88% 2.27%

2002 1.14% 1.14% 1.48% 1.64% 1.18% 1.07% 1.46% 1.80% 1.51% 2.03% 2.20% 2.38% 1.59%

2001 3.73% 3.53% 2.92% 3.27% 3.62% 3.25% 2.72% 2.72% 2.65% 2.13% 1.90% 1.55% 2.83%

2000 2.74% 3.22% 3.76% 3.07% 3.19% 3.73% 3.66% 3.41% 3.45% 3.45% 3.45% 3.39% 3.38%

1999 1.67% 1.61% 1.73% 2.28% 2.09% 1.96% 2.14% 2.26% 2.63% 2.56% 2.62% 2.68% 2.19%

1998 1.57% 1.44% 1.37% 1.44% 1.69% 1.68% 1.68% 1.62% 1.49% 1.49% 1.55% 1.61% 1.55%

1997 3.04% 3.03% 2.76% 2.50% 2.23% 2.30% 2.23% 2.23% 2.15% 2.08% 1.83% 1.70% 2.34%

1996 2.73% 2.65% 2.84% 2.90% 2.89% 2.75% 2.95% 2.88% 3.00% 2.99% 3.26% 3.32% 2.93%

1995 2.80% 2.86% 2.85% 3.05% 3.19% 3.04% 2.76% 2.62% 2.54% 2.81% 2.61% 2.54% 2.81%

1994 2.52% 2.52% 2.51% 2.36% 2.29% 2.49% 2.77% 2.90% 2.96% 2.61% 2.67% 2.67% 2.61%

1993 3.26% 3.25% 3.09% 3.23% 3.22% 3.00% 2.78% 2.77% 2.69% 2.75% 2.68% 2.75% 2.96%

1992 2.60% 2.82% 3.19% 3.18% 3.02% 3.09% 3.16% 3.15% 2.99% 3.20% 3.05% 2.90% 3.03%

1991 5.65% 5.31% 4.90% 4.89% 4.95% 4.70% 4.45% 3.80% 3.39% 2.92% 2.99% 3.06% 4.25%

1990 5.20% 5.26% 5.23% 4.71% 4.36% 4.67% 4.82% 5.62% 6.16% 6.29% 6.27% 6.11% 5.39%

1989 4.67% 4.83% 4.98% 5.12% 5.36% 5.17% 4.98% 4.71% 4.34% 4.49% 4.66% 4.65% 4.83%

1988 4.05% 3.94% 3.93% 3.90% 3.89% 3.96% 4.13% 4.02% 4.17% 4.25% 4.25% 4.42% 4.08%

1987 1.46% 2.10% 3.03% 3.78% 3.86% 3.65% 3.93% 4.28% 4.36% 4.53% 4.53% 4.43% 3.66%

1986 3.89% 3.11% 2.26% 1.59% 1.49% 1.77% 1.58% 1.57% 1.75% 1.47% 1.28% 1.10% 1.91%

看清楚了吗？除了1990年的5.39%以外，CPI一直没有达到过5%。CPI的这种表现和我前面给的GDP平减指数的表现是差不多的。

现在请你再来解释解释，你的“美国30年前曾大幅度贬值美元。通货膨胀年最高达到15％”，“美国每年贬美元5－10％是一直在做的事情”，是从哪里来的？