主题：杠杆外汇讨论贴，今探讨日元贴 -- 凡妮娅

Historically, GBP/USD dropped to 1.05 in early 1985. Then it pulled up sharply to 1.49 in 9 months. After that, GBP/USD formed a floor at 1.40, or more roughly speaking, a floor at the range of 1.35 - 1.40. It tested this floor three times in late 1986, early 1993, and 2000-2002. This year it is the fourth time that the pair reaches this floor again. Therefore we have strong reason to believe that the 1.35-1.40 range is solid floor in the long term. Of course, the belief is not for 100% sure. There is still chance that pair may drop deeper to test the 1.05 floor given this global crisis background.

Captain Jack mentioned of two windows overlapping at 3/30/2009. I do see the floor. But, forgive my limited knowledge about Forex, I do not see the window for an increasing trend. With today's background of the coming crisis, I do not forsee a reversed trend in GBP/USD. I only see an opportunity of bouncing back after a sharp drop.

If you look at the patterns of GBP/USD after hitting a floor, you will see that a sharp bouncing up only follows a steep dropping. In early 1993, after a steep dropping, the pair bounced back sharply from 1.41 to 1.59, or 30% of its height from peak to valley, in 2 months. If Captain Jack's prediction is correct, the pair should bounce up from 1.35 to 1.75 in two months, or 46% of its height from peak to valley. Look at its pattern in 1993 and 2000-2002. After hitting its floor in early 1993, the pair spent 4 years to go back to 50% of the height (from 1.41 to 1.71).

I am not saying Captain Jack's opinion is wrong. Jack is an experienced trader, way more than I am. I trust his opinion more than my own. But I would say I suggest use some caution when trading GBP/USD with a long term plan at this point of time. There is still a chance that GBP/USD will fluctuate just above the floor, say, 1.35 - 1.46, for months or even a couple of years. If the pair breaks the floor and go deeper, I won't feel surprise, though I believe the chance may be minor.