主题：重振股版，从我做起，从坦白交待做起 -- 混天球

Insurance industry is in danger for sure. There is an article today predicting that at least one of the major insurance companies will fall in 2009. The article is unprofessional but I agree with its conclusion. However, not all of them will fall. Many major insurance companies will survive. And the survivors will be good targets for investment. When one player falls and other players are trembling in fear, it is your time to enjoy the bloody feast. The key is to screen the candidate: who will fall and who will survive.

AFLAC (American Family Life Assurance), Hartford Life, MetLife, Prudential, ING, Aegon, AIG, Sun Life ......

Let me tell you my opinion and I am NOT responsible for anything I write down here. As far as I know, property and casulty insurance is in the best position. Next the health insurance. Life insurance is in the worst positioin. So life insurance is the best target. Hartford Life's risk capital is very thin. MetLife will lost money on its Variable Annuity products. But it has hold a lot of liquidities and has very high chance to survive. There is chance that MetLife will buy Lincoln Financial, or at least part of it. I do not have sufficient information to comment on other companies.

Wish you the best of luck in your investment.