主题：给大家提个醒 -- 倥偬飞人

中国经济的发展，消费的贡献一直比例较小。国际热钱的涌入，推高了以房价为代表的资产价格，也加剧了通货膨胀。随着国外信贷紧缩，仅仅美国各大金融机构和对冲基金在次贷和衍生性金融产品以及股票上的损失有可能造成1.5-2万亿美元的信贷缺口，不能排除国际热钱受到回抽压力而回流的可能性，这样一进一出，对中国经济的影响也相当负面，仅仅在汇率上的损失就非常大。资产价格将经受严峻的考验，房价下跌倒是可能性很大，但是坏账可能大幅上升。

以下是OECD的看法，如果中国经济放缓，则会加剧热钱的流出。

China faces downturn, says OECD

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor

Last Updated: 4:20pm GMT 11/02/2008

Hopes that China will rescue the world economy from suffering a major slowdown have been dashed by an authoritative new study which reveals that growth in the Far Eastern tiger is heading downwards.

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New figures published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reveal that China has joined the rest of the rich world in facing a possible downturn.

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The news will come as a major disappointment for policymakers, many of whom had assumed that, although the United States may currently be in recession, strong growth in younger economies such as China and India would prevent a widespread global slowdown.

The OECD's composite leading indicator - a measure of when major economies experience turning points - is now showing that China, which has been growing at around 10pc for some years, is about to slow markedly. The CLI for China dropped by 0.7pc points in December. Usually a fall in the CLI, which is based on a multitude of surveys, presages an imminent drop in overall economic performance.

The Paris-based institution said: "The latest data for major OECD non-member economies point to a potential downturn in China, while continued expansion is ahead in Brazil, India and Russia."