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主题:北朝鲜迈出了关键的第一步。 -- wanderer

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家园 有人已经推算出这个协议的经济数据

The disarmament pact requires North Korea to seal its main nuclear reactor, allow international inspectors and begin accounting for other nuclear programs within 60 days. Within that time, more talks are planned on ending the hostilities between North Korea and the U.S. and Japan.

In return, North Korea will receive 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil, a modest down payment on a promised 1 million tons in oil or aid of a similar value if it ultimately disarms. One million tons of oil is more than two-thirds of North Korea's entire oil consumption in 2004, according to the CIA Factbook.

The aid package is worth about US$250 million (euro190 million) at current prices.

值得一提的是,所有赞成和北朝鲜坐下来谈的美国政治家都认为,这个协议只是一个starting point。俺对这种说法的理解是:美国政治家对北朝鲜政府仍然缺乏信任,同时又期望这个协议能够进入实施阶段。其实,北朝鲜政府如果再次反悔,中国政府与金正日的关系也就彻底结束了。因此,金正日已经没有再次冒险的本钱, 这个协议应该能够进入实施阶段,除非中国政府改变外交政策。

如果想让北朝鲜彻底放弃生产核武器,北朝鲜政府的要价肯定会很高,具体数据可能要等到联合国解除对北朝鲜经济制裁决定以后才能见报。中美俄在这个问题上应该是绝对一致的。

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