主题：cited article, 中国除了不断地说“不”之外 -- parishg

no. I do not support America's position. I do not know why you come out with this conclusion. I am never a fan of Paul Krugman.

But if China wants to lead the world, China needs to propose a better system to accommodate the interests of the majority of the nations in the world. During this process, the globe needs to walk carefully away from a probable depression and warfare. The Bretton Woods II system has its inherent problem. China should lead the world here by framing a better global monetary system.

America has no incentive to make any modification. If everybody just wants the comfort under the current system, the BENIGH OPTION is that a global inflation helps America to recover. And we come back with another 10-20 years of peace.

A worse alternative is the global turmoil of 1930s.

麻烦。毕竟大家都知道“欠债还钱”的道理。没钱就变卖资产呗。

不能假设美国所做的都合理，或者不合理也没有办法，只能其他人妥协。这样的话这个世界的问题就无解了。

中国不说不，难道让中国做冤大头，开个军舰到纽约港去讨债去？和谐世界嘛，大家一起吐口水呗，口水不行，大家一起沉到海底去，反正中国人没有觉得自己高人一等，和世界人民一起沉海底没有什么好亏的。

but you need to assume war first. Are you sure you can definitely win the assets in America in the end? Are you so sure your allies, such as Russia, Iran, Vietnam, North Korea are so reliable? China is importing at least 4m barrels of oil through the Indian ocean-mid-east route. That's almost half of China's daily oil demand. Do you think we have reliable partners along that crucial route? Esp., Singapore on the chokepoint.

What China needs to do is to avoid accumulating MORE USD treasury notes and proposing a new system upon other means of international payment. Past mistake is already done-- it is time to learn, friend.

Do not give childish complaint. You know lots of solutions are not practical. In 1970s, Europe had exactly the same problem against a weakening dollars. Did they enforce their creditor rights? They were even stronger than China then, how come they failed?

They learned the lesson and now switched to a Europe-based common currency. Should Chinese still follow the same USD-centered system more and accumulate more IOUs?

China needs to have a more unified Asia and in the end, squeeze out dollar from the Asian economic community. Jin Di Wan Tian is exactly proposing that--he is a practical man with vision, never giving childish complaints.

而是实力的问题，大炮不到的地方总归是很难控制的，最好的情况就是墙头草，最坏的情况就不用说了。现在的问题是：能否慢慢的挤掉美国在东亚的军事存在而不触发美国比较大的反击？我认为这是不太可能的事情，除非美国国内遇到重大变故。

options.

War is not an option--at least for today's China based on its very poor navy force. Chinese Army is strong, but it can only reach eastern Asia and continental part of the southeast Asia. China can not effectively control the key energy sea routes.

Never ever fight a war where you do not even have a winning chance of 20%.

挤掉美国在Europe 的军事存在而不触发美国比较大的反击

--it has already happened after the end of Cold War. The European integration sped up after 1989. It took Europe 10-15 more years to finally be able to fight face to face with America after 2006.

And most of the fight is through the financial market, with no blood shed.

How long before the U.S. kicked out Britain and overtook the world leadership? Almost 45 years (1890-1945).

Chinese on this forum are long on temper and short on perseverence.

挤掉美国在东亚的军事存在而不触发美国比较大的反击

--everything is possible. If you finally have a large enough consumer market, strong enough economy, solid enough political system and powerful enough Navy/Air Forces.

Rome is not built overnight. What China needs to do right now is to keep the upward trajectory. As Jin Di Wan Tian said: Dou er Bu Puo. The financial market is an even better place for this fight.

No alliance is for ever. You see more and more southeastern Asian nations are shifting in China's favor-- 20 years before, nobody can even imagine that. Who know what will happen to Japan in 20 years?

Stop the treasury note accumulation is just one solid step in the right direction.

二战的泥潭。

它的所谓孤立主义其实就是放任当时的世界经济衰退，而挑起贸易保护主义其实是二战非常主要的导火索之一。

现在的世界经济也许步履维艰，但是美国和欧洲都不会允许中国在国际政治经济领域随便置喙，除非这种建议符合他们的利益。中国人当然不会，也不应该维系这种欧美人创建并维系的单方面受惠的国际秩序。邓小平留下的韬光养晦策略远没有到需要改变的时候，中国在变强，但是还远远不够强，低调的中国符合我们的利益最大化。因此，小胡灰溜溜的回来对中国人没啥不好，对中国所谓不好的最多是某些人的心态，真正的不好是欧美人的钱袋。

To stop the treasury note accumulation, equals to 人民币兑美元大幅升值。直至汇率的重估能够消除掉经常账户和资本账户的顺差为止。

但是，按照目前中国官方的看法，人民币升值带来的通缩压力，是国内情况所不可承受的。

问题的症结可能就在这里了。

treasury notes or other nation's natural resources.

Spend away the USD holdings and let other people to worry for the USD problem.

人民币升值带来的通缩压力-- if the political elites of China can give away just 10% of their super-large abnormally accumulated wealth and share wealth with average Chinese, China has much less need to export so many consumer goods to China and Europe. China will see more happy Chinese (more physical wealth to consume) rather than more worried Chinese you see today back in China. Deflation is no issue if CHINA CAN SOLVE INCOME/WEALTH REDISTRIBUTION ISSUE.

China's elites will also less pressure to worry about their safety and less incentives to flee to here: North America.

A 1.3b-population nation with so many poor people struggling still complains for the lack of external demand for its overcapacity AND DEFLATION-- do not we think it is really pathetic????

TODAY'S CHINA IS AMERICA IN 1930S. China can choose either the dream team of Broad Wu-Victor Chen or a smart leader like FDR who led a near collapsed America to the global leadership, who WAS also a traitor to his American super-rich WASP elite group.

天朝的经济奔腾依旧是建立在基本的人权和民主自由上面，出现农民工就意味着迁徙的自由化以及承认劳动是归属个人自我控制。私人企业是对个人创业自由的承认。这个东西鼎革已经写过了，万里风中虎已经谈过了。

经济第一 秩序优先 都不是什么新鲜的概念，玩过的人多了。如果不能提出一个有意义的执行方案，那么这个 共识 只不过是一个大家都不知道原因的中国现象。除了向大大小小云里雾里的第三世界国家提供一个图腾之外别无它物。苏联的计划经济和国有化的感染力全盛时代比今天 中国共识 的时髦值还要强得多，到头来依旧灰飞烟灭。华盛顿共识 骂名遍地，总不能说没有具体方案才是北京共识的最高明之处。

只是人口大国 不是科学大国 不是哲学大国 不是音乐大国嘛

怎么成了大国的标准了

就如同1890年美国就出头挑事的后果。自不量力。还真以为自己是somebody了？一战的美国大兵开始都是被英法当垃圾用。谁看得起你美国佬。那已经是1890年之后的将近30年了！

对于弱者，向来都是先保住自己不失误，然后再去占别人便宜。积累的几十年的元气，耗尽它几年就够了。中国还不够强大到可以到国际战略舞台中间主演的地步。

中国主导世界，可以。2030年之后在做打算比较好。现在我们只要做好自己就够了。

my point is that China needs to give a much better system to all countries on the earth to dismantle this america-led global order and replace America as the No.1.

Currently, I do not think it is possible. China lacks economic resources as well as intellectual pool. China barely passed the stage as a poor third-world country. Its nationals have not benefited from the rise of China.

People on this forum just could not wait any longer. You read Chen Feng's post: Canada and America are nothing already compared with China.

He keeps on talking about inflation threat, but I believe we will actually see deflation in the next 10 years. As I said before, a chemical engineer should not step out of his field of expertise and boast about long term economic forecasts. If he can read history a bit more, he will see the helicopter Ben is actually a evil genius.

什么保尔森不知道银行和AIG做的合同，我日，保尔森上台前就是高盛的CEO好不好？写书的家伙还真是太能瞎扯了。估计也就是偏偏从来不关心这些的老百姓，事实上只要知道保尔森经历的人应该就不会有这个想法。

你下面也说了美元会长时间的保持弱势，不会大幅度加息，那么他如何保证低通胀呢？好比说现在石油价格就比较高，这个应该还是会影响到它的CPI的吧。按照你的意思，美国人的意思就是：

1.和之前对马克和日元一样，兑其他货币进行贬值

2.欧元逐渐垮掉，那么资金回流美国

于是这两步的效果就是多发的美元逐步进入美国，但是我看不出来弱势美元如何让这些多余的美元蒸发掉。目前的operation twist貌似有这个效果，但是不够啊。另外经济不好的话会不会还是会继续QE？这样更多了。

菁英是可以在全世界范围内掌握自己的产业的，毕竟他们人在哪里不会影响他们对企业的控股，也不会影响军队对他们的忠诚。而且他们在世界行走也不需要改换国籍，拿护照呗。