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主题:欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照--in Feb. -- parishg

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家园 大幅加息其实是加速经济休克的

感觉是脑袋进水了,居然在经济疲软的时候加息。97年亚洲金融危机的时候,就有深刻教训的,本币崩溃时候大量加息,无法制止资金外流,因为这个时候,资金是恐慌性的外流,根本不可能为了一点息口把资金留在这个危险国家内。

大幅加息有非常强的反作用,就是会抽干实体经济的流动性,实体经济无法承受15%的利息,被迫减少向银行的贷款,要么效益大幅下降要么资金链断裂;股市也同时大幅下跌,无法发挥融资作用。最后结果就是经济哀鸿遍野,大量企业休克,结果是被国外收购。

实际上,我觉得象韩国这样的,不听IMF,限制资金留出,发动全国人民的外币和贵重金属集中来对外偿付,发行特别国债,由国家来承担外币和贵金属的利息,这才能减少损失。

只能说,牛皮烘烘的经济学家们,又忽悠了一位信奉自由主义的不幸者。

对我们倒是好事,象我国这样,正好手头有大量被某些人称为“绿色废纸”的外汇储备的,可以等他们股市大跌以后去廉价收购。只是希腊没有啥石油和矿产资源,也没啥高新技术.....寄希望于风波快点扩展到其他欧洲国家了。

家园 IMF?

The American trojan horse? hehe.

I hope China is not stupid enough to jump in at CURRENT stage. China and Japan are two nations which have capacity to rescue Europe. Japan definitely will not help. But I am not sure about China. China should wait for fire price at later stages.

Even 救火队 can not rescue hopeless people. God helps those who can help themselves.

I guess Germans are seriously considering splitting Euroland now. Everything is possible on the table.

I really like your insightful posts. I will wait to read your comments on the Euro issue. We both identify Spain as the key domino to fall way ahead of others...

家园 OK

I've rolled back the "宝推" operation.

Thank the forum designer implemented so many flexible tools.

家园 while 只是希腊没有啥石油和矿产资源,也没啥高新技术

but they are never short of incapability of seeing their own incompetence and inefficiency as well as European arrogance against Asians...

Some Greeks friends told me in early 2010 that "Germans will help us". OKAY! So finally they got Germany's middle-finger and was sent to the ER(emergency room) of IMF.

寄希望于风波快点扩展到其他欧洲国家了--ya, let's wait and see. 2010-11 will be THE SOVEREIGN BANKRUPTCY YEAR(s) OF THE ARROGANT EUROLAND.

IMF?
家园 我看不是IMF,明天看反应再说吧
家园 讨论一下

希腊的财政收入是500亿欧元,财政支出是815亿欧元。

外债是多少哪?3000亿欧元

就是说希腊政府的公务员不吃不喝,还6年能还完,问题是还有利息哪。收税还总要人手吧?

希腊的债券违约看来是迟早的事。

这么看来欧元的贬值也是大概率事件,假如欧洲被干掉了。

剩下的日元贬值也是老美能够控制的事。

那么剩下的事就是人民币所面临的贬值压力。中国所面临的出口压力。

请看我写的这篇:

zhuhit:人民币汇率困境

欧洲的倒掉对中国不是什么好事啊。

家园 我认为我国应该趁此机会,帮希腊一把。

现在帮希腊有大大的收益。

欧洲真垮了,我国只怕也要跟着垮。

看看秦吞6国,不要做楚国。


本帖一共被 2 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
IMF?
家园 傻客气正在中国

时间安排是应该早就定了,不过这当口,可能议题要换了

家园 不行。希腊欠债太多,利益太小,我们也掌握不住。

不行。希腊欠债太多,利益太小,距离太远,我们也掌握不住。希腊可是欠了三千亿外债。它仅仅是一个一千万人口,十三万平方公里的小国。我们的远洋海军也还不行,太远了我们也控制不住。有那么多闲钱不如好好经营一下把外蒙合并进来。

欧洲现在就倒下确实对中国很可能是坏事。但是第一,欧洲老本还有一些,其中几家老本还挺厚,不会现在就全倒。第二,中国也没有能力救欧洲,欧洲根本的问题是干活少却花钱多,live beyond their means。从长远的来看,这种纨绔子弟是扶不起来的。所以还是隔岸观火比较靠谱。

家园 希腊是西方文明的摇篮,希腊有世界上名列前茅的船公司
家园 让小猪们拖垮法德对中国更有利

最好用小猪的高利息欧元资产当抵押, 在法德吸贷滚利, 再去套更多的抵押品, 再吸贷. 重演一下亚洲风暴. 法德要么暴仓割肉,要么就看着欧元区分裂. 不过这种事还是没有祖国的犹太人作的好, 中国人隔岸观火就好, 趁火打劫的事就凭中国海外投资的水平还不知道谁打劫谁.

家园 本大别卖关子呀

不是IMF还会有谁呢?如果欧盟或者德国自己肯出手,希腊也不至于变成今天这样。

家园 如果中国能够顶住美国,我也希望看到欧罗巴翘辫子

欠我们太多了。

家园 这次希腊倒不是脑袋进水,这次是“被加息”。

这次希腊倒不是脑袋进水,这次是“被加息”。投资者不愿冒风险买它的债券造成它的债券价格大跌,收益率狂飙。希腊不是被忽悠的,希腊是被它自己前些年不负责任的财政政策压垮的。葡萄牙也一样。

任何希腊新发行的债券必须随行就市,就是要提供15%的年利率。也就是说,任何一笔旧债到期后,希腊政府必须要为新债付15%的年息才能借得着。按楼下提供的数据,希腊共欠债3000亿,年财政收入500亿。3000亿国债乘以15%的年息是450亿的利息支出,差不多是财政收入全填进利息里了。希腊政府不吃不喝也就刚够还利息,希腊破产看来是毫无悬念的。下面就看欧盟和IMF怎么折腾了。

而且这是多米诺骨牌,希腊一旦开始赖债,其中相当一部分就是欠其他PIIGS国家的,本来财政状况就在悬崖边的它们也会受到极大损失而可能被拖下水。

家园 update: Spain downgrade( fro

Source: Marketwatch

S&P downgrades Spain

12:14p ET April 28, 2010 (MarketWatch)

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- It was Spain's turn Wednesday to feel the heat from Standard & Poor's as the ratings agency cut the country's credit rating from AA+ to AA, pinning the decision on fears that an extended period of weak economic growth could damage the government's budget position.

"We now believe that the Spanish economy's shift away from credit-fueled economic growth is likely to result in a more protracted period of sluggish activity than we previously assumed," said S&P credit analyst Marko Mrsnik.

The outlook for Spain's credit rating is negative, S&P said.

The move comes a day after S&P cut Greece's credit rating to junk status at BB+ and lowered Portugal's credit rating by two notches. Those moves amplified turmoil in southern European credit markets and heightened fears that Greece's deepening fiscal woes could transform into a full-blown debt crisis for the euro zone. Read about the earlier downgrades.

Earlier Wednesday, European officials scrambled to reassure markets that an aid plan for Greece would soon be finalized. Talk that the size of the joint European Union-International Monetary Fund package could rise -- to more than 100 billion euros ($131 billion) over three years, rather than the 45 billion euro, one-year package currently under consideration -- helped calm extremely volatile southern euro-zone credit markets. Read about contagion fears.

The Spanish downgrade renewed selling pressure on the euro , which fell to its lowest level against the dollar since April 2009, setting a 12-month low for the second consecutive session after having fallen Tuesday in the wake of the Greece downgrade.

The currency remained 0.3% lower at $1.3141. See Currencies for more on action in the dollar and the euro.

Regarding Spain, S&P said it now expects inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product to average 0.7% annually in 2010 to 2016, compared to previous expectations of more than 1%.

Spain's economy continues to suffer from the implosion of a massive housing bubble.

The ratings agency said it also had taken into account the possibility that borrowing costs in Spain's public and private sectors could remain elevated this year and in 2011, further slowing Spain's recovery from recession. Such a prospect wasn't factored into the agency's "base case" for Spain, however.

Borrowing costs for other highly indebted euro-zone countries have risen amid fears the debt woes weighing on Greece could spread.

S&P said it still expected Spain's 2010 fiscal deficit to remain in line with the government's target of 9.8% of GDP, adding that weaker revenues and higher spending are likely over the medium term. That means the deficit is likely to exceed 5% of GDP by 2013, according to S&P.

The government has said it intends to cut its deficit to 3% of GDP -- the E.U.'s limit -- by that time.

The agency also said its debt projections assume banks won't draw more than the 27 billion euros available in the government's bank-restructuring fund.

S&P said it would revise its outlook for Spain's rating to stable if the government meets or exceeds its fiscal goals in 2010 and 2011 and Spain's economic growth exceeds the agency's expectations.

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