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主题:【原创】新年政治经济展望之二:中美博弈(一) -- 井底望天

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所以伊朗现在做了几个大动作:拼命镇压反对派,枪毙了不少人;打个火箭,表明自己有反击能力;核问题上突然松口。

这些做法,都是为了避免美国下决心发起攻击。

家园 现在的战争决定权不在伊朗手上

在米国手上,如果我们要判断米国可能的做法的话,必须从米国人的角度来判断利弊

伊朗核问题是目前米国看起来最可能获得成绩的方向,因为黑马肯定会认真考虑一切可以采用的手段。

外科手术式的军事手段是最可靠也是最有杀伤力的手段。唯一的后果就是伊朗可能向伊斯兰世界输出革命。但这有个前提条件,就是其民众基础必须相当稳固,以至于民众愿意为这种自杀战略做牺牲。目前看来,伊朗现政府的基础并不稳定。这就使军事打击成为一个很有诱惑力的选项。

一旦伊朗核问题彻底解决,黑马可以给自己挣回宝贵的政治空间。

如果米国人真这么想,那么他们就会在国际上继续压迫中国,迫使中国挽救伊朗的外交努力失败。一旦获得联合国授权,可以使用任何手段终结伊朗的核努力,那就等于为米国的军事行动找到了合法依据。

所以,无论米国现在怎么压迫中国,目的就是要中国以放弃伊朗作为交换条件。最近米国驻华大使暗示在华的米国公司,不要顾及政府政策,继续保持与中国的商业关系。这应该就是个信号!

家园 伊朗绝对有能力打击美国的全球利益

Nations with over 150,000 Shi'a[43]Country Shi'a population Percent of Muslim population that is Shi'a Percent of global Shi'a population

Iran 66,000,000 - 70,000,000 90 - 95 37 - 40

Pakistan 17,000,000 - 26,000,000 10 - 15 10 - 15

India 16,000,000 - 24,000,000 10 - 15 9 - 14

Iraq 19,000,000 - 22,000,000 65 - 70 11 - 12

Turkey 7,000,000 - 11,000,000 10 - 15 4 - 6

Yemen 8,000,000 - 10,000,000 35 - 40 5

Azerbaijan 5,000,000 - 7,000,000 65 - 75 3 - 4

Afghanistan 3,000,000 - 4,000,000 10 - 15 <2

Syria 3,000,000 - 4,000,000 15 - 20 <2

Saudi Arabia 2,000,000 - 4,000,000 10 - 15 1 - 2

Nigeria 4,000,000 5 <2

Lebanon 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 28 - 45 <1

Tanzania 2,000,000 10 <1

Kuwait 500,000 - 700,000 20 - 25 <1

Germany 400,000 - 600,000 10 - 15 <1

Bahrain 400,000 - 500,000 65 - 75 <1

Tajikistan 400,000 7 <1

United Arab Emirates 300,000 - 400,000 10 <1

United States 200,000 - 400,000 10 - 15 <1

Oman 100,000 - 300,000 5 - 10 <1

United Kingdom 100,000 - 300,000 10 - 15 <1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_Islam

Shia Muslims Around the World

Africa

Ghana:

Ghana is located in the West of the African continent and lies on the Atlantic Ocean. The capital city of Ghana is Okra. The population of Ghana is approximately 20million. Ghana has a democratic republican government, and their spoken language is English in addition to internal languages.

The religions practiced in Ghana include Islam, where 40% of the population follow the faith. 30% of the population are Christians, and the remaining 30% of the population follow other religions.

The majority of the Muslims in Ghana are situated in the north of the country, where they are approximately 80% and are in cities such Okra, Kowmasey, Barnkahowfar, Takowradee, Teema and Balack. The majority of the inhabitants are followers of the Sunni faith.

The majority of the Sunni Muslims in Ghana are followers of the Malki School of thought. However there are also Hanbali, Shafiee and Shia Muslims in Ghana.

In the 1980, the Shia school of thought spread rapidly in Ghana, this was due to the Lebanese Shia’s who migrated to Ghana and set up their businesses there.

The population of Shia’s in Ghana approximately one million, and they are scattered over a wide area, they are found in places such as Okra- the capital city of Ghana, Tamaleey, Kowmasey and also in Owfaseey where the whole population of this city converted to Shia Islam.

The Islamic centre for the Youth followers of Ahlulbayt, Imam Hussain(AS) foundation and al-Kawthar Foundation are all located in the capital city Okra as well as in other cities in Ghana. In the city of Owfaseey there is the mosque of Imam Ali al-Sajjad (AS) and in Okra there is the mosque of Ahlulbayt(AS), the mosque of Rasool Allah (PBUH) and the mosque of Imam Jaffar al-Sadiq (AS).

The activity of the Shia’s in Ghana are vast, they include teaching the youth Islamic classes, where the majority of the students then leave Ghana and migrate to other places to continue to higher level educations, these places include Iran and Syria. The Islamic centres celebrate and commemorate the deaths and births of the Imams and prophets as well as engage in other Islamic festivals. The Shia’s have many newspapers and magazines such as al-Kawthar magazine which is published in the English language, in the capital city Okra, there is a huge library which has many books concerning the household of the Holy Prophet (PBUH).

The activities which the Shia’s participate in has allowed the spread of the Shia school of thought across Ghana, and has allowed individuals to learn about the message of Shia Islam , for this reason many Muslims have converted to Shia Islam and many non-Muslims have converted to Islam.

Tunisia:

Tunisia is located north of the African continent. Tunisia is surrounded by countries such as Algeria and Libya. The capital city of Tunisia is Tunis. The population of Tunisia is approximately 9 million. The government in Tunisia is a republican government. The spoken language in Tunisia is Arabic as well as the French language which is spoken amongst a large number of the Tunisian people. The most practised religion in Tunisia is Islam, however there is approximately 1% of Jewish and Christian believers.

The majority of the Muslims in Tunisia are followers of the Maliki school of thought and approximately 85% of the Muslims follow this school of thought, there also exist a minority number of believers of the Shia school of thought. The Sufi belief is also amongst the minority of Muslim faiths in the country.

The Islamic history in the country is old, the year 57 AD was the first established holy site for Muslims in the city of Qirawan and from there the Islamic faith spread rapidly across Tunisia. In Qirawan there is the mosque of Aaqaba son of Nafih al-Sahibeey al-Jaleel, it is this individual who established the mosque in the year 50AD.

The roots of Shia Islam in Tunisia was before the Fatimid empire, and the Shia faith spread via the city of al-Mahdia al-Tunisia. The ‘Berber’ people were the first people on this land and it is through them that the message of Ahlulbayt spread.

The Shia faith has recently spread in Tunisia. The ‘Berber’ people, were originally the first people on Tunisian land, they also had a specific role during the time of the martyrdom of Imam Hussain (AS), and they were killed, tortured and hurt as were the people of al-Madina by the Umayyad dynasty.

It can be said the belief in the Household of the Prophet(PBUH) spread into Tunisia during the 1950’s / 70’s, after Tijani al-Samawi left to Iraq, it is when the light of Shia Islam started shining Tunisia.

Today the Shia belief is found across many cities and villages in the country, if not all the cities and villages. The cities which have a major population of Shia’s are Qafsa, and the state of Qabass, Soosaa, al-Mahdia and in the capital city Tunis.

The activities of the Shia, include celebrating and commemorating the births/ deaths of the Holy infallibles (AS), publications of literature concerning the belief as well as other activities. There are some Shia from Tunisia who studies Islamic theology in Iran and Syria. Amongst the respected Shia scholars in Tunisia is Sayed Mohammed al-Tijani al-Samawi and Sheikh Mobarak Baghdash.

The Shia belief was able to spread in Tunisia due to the availability of open minded people and the lack of extreme individuals as well as the high level of educated people which is found amongst the population of Tunisians.

Asia

Pakistan:

Pakistan is a country located in Asia. Pakistan is surrounded by countries such as Afghanistan, Iran and India. The capital city of Pakistan is Islamabad. The population of Pakistan exceeds 160 million. The Pakistani government is an Islamic government. The spoken languages among the Pakistani population are Urdu, Punjabi. However, the formal language of the country is English. The literal meaning of the word ‘Pakistan’ is the pure land, the purity from the Hindus when the country became separated from India in the year 1947.

The population of Muslim in Pakistan is 97%, the remaining 3% are Hindus, Christians, Buddhists, and Sikhs. The majority of the Muslims are believers of the Sunni faith, and 74% are followers of the Hanafi school of thought and remaining Muslims are followers of the Shia School of thought.

The Shia population in the country of Pakistan contribute to approximately a quarter of the whole population. The Shia’s are distributed throughout the country, they are found in such places: Multan, Jhang, Faisalabad, Karachi, Hyderabad, Peshawar and Rawalpindi. The majority of the population found in the north of the country are followers of Ahlulbayt, where they form 80% of the population in places such as Baltistan and Gilgit. The presence of Shia in Pakistan stems back from the eighth century, where the Shia school of thought was spread by scholars. Amongst the great scholars who spread the message of Ahlulbayt in Pakistan was Qazi Noorullah al-Shushtari and other Ulama.

Regardless of the fact that the Shia contribute to only a quarter of the population, the Shia have a huge impact on the politics and cultural activities of Pakistan. The Shia also have a high influence on all levels of the inhabitants of the country. Many of the ministers of the country are Shia’s, the most important being the founder of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah as well as many generals in the military were followers of Ahlulbayt.

The cultural activities of the Shia in Pakistan is also highly regarded, many of the magazines and newspapers which are published are done by Shia, such publications include al-Thaqalayn.

Pakistan plays host to many educated Shia scholars, as well as many religious schools. The social activities of the Shia in Pakistan are likewise very active, where they spend a lot in the establishment of schools mosques and Islamic centres.

The Shia in Pakistan have a very firm hold on their belief, this is aided by the fact that in every city or village you will find an Islamic centre and a mosque, where the followers of Ahlulbayt celebrates/commemorate Islamic ceremonies.

The Shia of Pakistan have many holy site, one such site is that of Imam Ali (A.S.) in Parachinar.

Publications concerning Ahlulbayt has spread rapidly throughout Pakistan, especially books of those individuals who were guided to the truth, by this way the truth of Ahlulbayt is being told to the people of Pakistan.

Indonesia:

Indonesia is a collection of many islands and is located south east of Asia, between Australia and Malaysia. The capital city of Indonesia is Jakarta, and the population of the country is 210 million, there formal spoken language is the standard Indonesian language; however there exist 400 different languages spoken collectively within the different cities in Indonesia. Indonesia is a democratic republican country.

Indonesia is considered to have the highest population of Muslims, 89% of the population is Muslim, the remainder are Christians 8% where they are situated in the northern areas of Indonesia, and the percentage of Hindus in Indonesia is approximately 2% where the majority of them live in the area of Bali and the remainder of the population are Buddhists.

The establishment of Islam in Indonesia is considered to be old, the time Islam entered was during the fourth century, and furthermore, during the sixth century the spread of Islam was at its peak by aid of the traders/businessmen from India.

The majority of Muslims in Indonesia are Sunni’s, the Shafeeie school of thought is considered to be the vastest followed school of thought. The other schools of thought which are apparent in Indonesia are Hanafi, Malki, Hanbali and the Shia School of thought with a few Sufis( such as the Naqshabandi and Tijanya). The Indonesians are considered to be firm followers of their belief, and this is shown by the number of mosques they have in the country- there exists greater than 550 thousand mosques.

The history of Shia’s in Indonesia started in the fourth century, amongst them are the grandchildren of Ali son of Imam Jaffar al-Sadiq (AS) who resided in this country and many of the men married the princess-daughters of the kings in area, to the extent that some of the men obtained a very high position in the monarchy.

The city of Acheh which is located in the north of Sumatra, was the centre for Shia’s in Indonesia, and it is from there the Shia faith spread across Indonesia. The city of Kowal has a very high Shia population, and shortly after the independence of Indonesia, the government established an university in Kowal and called it, Shia Kowal university.

Recently, Indonesia has seen a strong Shia movement which are lead by highly intellectual individuals. Today the population of Shia’s in the country is approximately one million, they are distributed all around the country, however, they are mainly found in Jakarta-which is the capital city of Indonesia, Bandanogh and Sowra. The Shia’s of Indonesia are firm believers of their faith. Many of the Shia’s in Indonesia have political roles in the government.

The Shia’s of Indonesia’s Islamic activities are vast, the spend vast amounts of money for the sake of spreading the teachings of AhlulBayt(AS) which are in the Indonesian language. They have a habitat of visiting the shrines of the fourteen infallibles also. There is a number of Islamic centres in Indonesia which belong to the Shia’s such as the Al-Hadi(AS) Institute, Al-Jawad(AS) Foundation and Al-Baqir(AS) Foundation.

The many mosques which belong to the Shia in Indonesia, celebrate the births of the Imams and also commemorate the deaths of the Imams.

At this very moment in time in Indonesia, there is a strong movement for the conversion of individuals to Shia Islam amongst the educated specifically. There have been many pieces of literature written such as the Islamic brotherhood, answering al-Dawi, the tradition of the al-Thaqalyn and many books concerning the tragedy of Karbala. There are also lectures given regarding the Shia belief which attract people to the Shia belief.

South America

Brazil:

Brazil is located in the middle of the south American continent, its capital city is Brasilia. Brazil has a federal government. The population of Brazil is 170milion, the most frequent spoken language in Brazil is Portuguese, however, the French, English and the Spanish languages are also spoken in moderation. 89% of the Brazilian population are Christians of which the majority are catholic. The remaining 11% are of other faiths. The government has proclaimed Brazil as a country of democracy of faiths, where everyone can practice the faith they wish. The population of Muslim is not greater than 3 million, and they are largely located in west of Brazil, in Sao Paulo.

Islam reached Brazil through worshipers who migrated to Brazil from Africa, and also from immigrants during the Ottoman empire, where Rio Janeiro was a station were Muslim captives from Africa were brought to, this is how the city learned about Islam. The Portuguese colonisation helped stabilise the situation of Muslims in Brazil by stopping the killing of Muslims. One should note that one main factor which helped the stabilization of Islam in the area was the existence of Islamic and Arabic monuments. In the city of Bahia, which is predominant in immigrants from Africa, exists many scriptures in the Arabic language, there also exists Arabic words in the streets of Brazil. In modern history (in the late 50’s) Brazil understood about Islam through businessmen from aboard. Islamic centres were established which celebrate many Islamic occasions. The first mosque to be built in Brazil was in 1950in the city of Sao Paulo, and today in Brazil there exists more than 60 Islamic centres and 40 mosques.

On the other hand, the existence of Shia is linked to the time of the Ottoman Empire, and the Shia escaped to Brazil to escape from military presence. The Shia first went to Argentina and then to Brazil. During the first half of this century, there occurred a mass immigration of Lebanese to Brazil, which lead to the increase of Shia Islam in the area. The population of Shia in Brazil is approximately one million, and they contribute to 40% of the Muslims in the country. They are generally situated in an area called Korotiba, where they have there own mosque- Imam Ali(AS) mosque, where both Sunni and Shia pray, also in Sao Paulo they have a mosque- Prophet of Allah Mohammed (PBUH), also there is an Islamic Centre- Imam Khomeini Centre.

The Shia in Brazil are free to indulge in their belief openly and freely, however, the Sunni, who have found themselves in a orthodox Christian society find it relatively difficult to practice their faith as openly.

家园 大多数国家都是可以剔除的,什叶派不等于支持伊朗

西方国家的穆斯林早就普世化了,攻占巴格达都没让他们激动起来。

其他那些国家,能怎么折腾?再折腾也是在自己的国家为主。

美国人守好边界和基地,高枕无忧。

家园 PIIGS(葡、意、爱、希、西)五国都有问题;

PIIGS 五国 : Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain.

去年,当 James Chanos made big splash,预言中国的经济今年会崩溃的时候,许多人就明说:毫无道理!中国要甭也得等3-5年;2010年首先要崩溃的就是 PIIGS!

家园 全世界都有美国人公司和利益 不仅仅是几个基地需要保护

假如伊朗人无法忍受羞辱和失败,选择铤而走险破罐破摔鱼死网破,彻底加入恐怖主义,甚至以一个主权国家的资源和身份施行恐怖主义,发展恐怖主义组织(不再局限于哈马斯和真主党这样的合法组织)。世界革命形势会大不一样的。

其他那些国家,能怎么折腾?再折腾也是在自己的国家为主。
像那个未遂炸鸡犯就是在尼日利亚加入革命队伍的。

西方国家的穆斯林早就普世化了
哈桑同志的光辉事迹向我们证明了美国穆斯林群众还是很有潜力的。什叶派搞不好比逊尼派更极端。

家园 美国打伊拉克这么久

本土穆斯林也不少,怎么就出个哈桑军医呢?比刑事犯罪率还低。

如果这也算革命的话,革命的标准未免太低。

美国的目标是什么?要搞清楚。

家园 对,我也是这个观点

家园 如果伊朗现政府真的选择这条路的话

只有他们自己需要面对由此带来的灾难性后果

恐怖袭击的成功率不在于人数的多少——我们先假设很多伊朗人愿意跟阿拉伯人同流合污,不过事实上,伊朗人很看不起阿拉伯人——而在于行动的策划与被袭击者的疏忽上。

作为一直处于反恐状态的欧米,伊朗人的加入不会对他们带来更多的压力。相反,由于放弃了政权的合法性,这些伊朗恐怖分子去搞恐怖活动所需要的炸药等将会比较困难,我不认为阿拉伯世界会乐于为伊朗恐怖分子提供方便,他们不出卖伊朗人就很对得起同为穆斯林的伊朗人了。

而主动放弃政权的合法性,还将导致神权政府的直接倒台。所以神棍们也不会答应。

米欧能有什么损失呢?几乎没有。就算伊朗人侥幸得手,成功炸掉一架A380,那又能怎样呢?政权已经永远地失去了,也永远不可能在政治上翻身了。

家园 你忽略了一点

在80年代,伊朗是与整个阿拉伯世界为敌的。这种关系到现在都没有完全改善,伊朗的政治号召力基本仅限于本国范围。

常规的伊朗反击手段其实没有任何效果。空海军打不过去,导弹打击某些点目标可能缺点准头;陆军不能随便进入伊拉克——否则就意味着与整个阿拉伯世界开战;唯一能用的就是人弹,但现在人弹面临着无人可用的极大可能性。

家园 伊朗是文明古国和宗教圣地 是极度自负自尊自豪的国家

伊朗人对“清洁”的追求程度不次于日本人。大国心态和对国家民族的定位不次于我们中国人。他们怎么可能容忍自己的国土被人随便炸呢?那他们的脸面何存?

如果米国表面不谋求推翻伊朗政府,仅仅通过空中打击消灭伊朗的核设施或者顺带消灭伊朗的部分军事能力的话
这就是宣战。这是伊朗,不是哪个小不点国家。尼日利亚或海地美国人随便炸都不会有什么事。但你炸中国或俄罗斯一下看看?伊朗的情况类似。

无疑,配合这种打击还可以进一步加强经济制裁,迫使伊朗内部发生民变,让伊朗人民来推翻伊朗政府。
我觉得这才是美国的正在目的,而不是真的在阿富汗伊拉克还没搞定的情况下再惹上伊朗这么个刺头。

这在伊朗年轻人已经变心了的基础上,不仅显得相当可行,而且对米国也是很有诱惑力的。
我不理解这个变心是什么,我估计不会是反对伊斯兰教或共和国对吧,顶多是想搞点恋爱自由这样的内容。我不相信他们对国家利益和前途的定义上有什么本质区别。而伊朗被随便轰炸就意味着这个国家在这个世界和时代的失落--我们中国人到现在还铭记着这种感觉。

至于伊朗的反击几乎可以忽略。空海力量是无法威胁米军的,陆地方向上,唯一伊朗可以走的就是伊拉克,但在伊朗可用的人力有限的背景下,米军完全可以尝试赌一把——这才是内乱的真正后果:导致米国可以考虑尝试军事手段解决以前做梦都不敢想的问题。
实力对比确实很明显,但如果伊朗人鱼死网破呢?美国人做好在全球全面收缩或核战争的准备了吗?而且伊朗绝对人口过剩(忘了那里好像生个小孩可以每年拿多少美金补助好像具体待考有的一家都生个十几二十个),年轻人几乎没有就业机会,不可能“可用人力有限”(这反而是中国的情况该死的计划生育)。

家园 没准伊朗人就会给核平了 但这也是美国人必须面对的可能后果

米欧能有什么损失呢?几乎没有。就算伊朗人侥幸得手,成功炸掉一架A380,那又能怎样呢?政权已经永远地失去了,也永远不可能在政治上翻身了。
谁能保证或控制伊朗人的选择呢?我要是他们我根本不会去搞什么核武器或核电站(那鸟地方什么工业都没有要那么多电干什么)。那里命真不值钱。

而主动放弃政权的合法性,还将导致神权政府的直接倒台。所以神棍们也不会答应
不反击侵略的话会有什么政权合法性?

由于放弃了政权的合法性,这些伊朗恐怖分子去搞恐怖活动所需要的炸药等将会比较困难,我不认为阿拉伯世界会乐于为伊朗恐怖分子提供方便,他们不出卖伊朗人就很对得起同为穆斯林的伊朗人了。
中东那边偷渡来偷渡好像很方便的。伊朗那边有个什么村就是靠向伊拉克走私发起来的。

家园 我们一条条分析

1、在你看来是宣战,但事实上,只要获得联合国授权,即使是宣战又怎么样?南斯拉夫战争是不是宣战?海湾战争是不是宣战?

2、你也承认米国很想伊朗政府——请注意,是政府——倒台。那么,什么举动能加速它的倒台?既然上次内乱,伊朗政府是依靠暴力强行压制下了反对派,那么,帮伊朗的反对派把伊朗的暴力机器消灭或者拖住不就可以了?

3、伊朗青年的变心原因是什么?真的是我们所谓的民主自由吗?不是,是经济环境恶化,毕业即失业。如果在短时间内,因为被镇压而心怀不满的青年们看到现政府无力将核计划继续进行下去,甚至可能因为现政府的政策而面临经济崩溃的前景时,你能保证他们仍会继续爱政府吗?

4、既然年轻人没什么就业机会,你为什么就认为他们会甘愿去当人弹呢?要知道他们反对的是现政府,不是米国。更何况,在内贾德上台前的温和派政府下,他们的前途,他们的生活还是比较美好的。在有美好的对比面前,没人会愿意死。

家园 咱们对伊朗也就是利用利用

对于伊朗,咱们中国绝对也只能利用。任何绿教国家,要让中国人完全放心是不可能的。要让中国为了这些国家而损害了自己的利益。为了伊朗这种神棍国家,中美核战是绝对不可能的。

伊朗人打算鱼死网破?是不是打算重复派少年去踩雷这种神迹啊

如果是这样,这只会增加许多人对绿教的反感

家园 一下子干掉美国人一个排 这标准不低了

伊拉克主要是萨达姆名声给搞的太臭了,怎么霸占民女怎么种族屠杀怎么害得伊拉克儿童缺奶没药。但就这样不还是有欧洲国家反对,认为理由不正当。

但伊朗呢?人家说了我只是搞核电,不搞核武。难道就没有人同情下?在美国的伊朗人就忍心看故国沦陷?

美国人当然不会想怎么样打核战或什么恐怖主义战争。但伊朗人就忍心被吃豆腐?"韬光养晦"好像不是他们的风格,否则也不至于搞这么被动。那么,伊朗人肯定会硬抗,会反击,那么下一步会怎么发展?

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