主题：轮回 -- zhuhit
家园 "毛林共识"是一种落后的生产关系 1.
and jury is out, global capital markets have almost unanimously spoken out: US as a economic, political and social system: it has survived 911, and it has outsmarted international "model challenge" from tgchina as a potential game changer of post world war II.
that information is now almost at system level.
but the tricky part of the capital market's information processing: system
s 工作介质 is non-linear fundamentally, some 工作介质 "get it", most don't or they are slow in getting system's information, the result: the slow ones or "never get it" ones will be eaten alive by system's "减法" operation, one way or another. "stupidity" just does not deserve anything.
that is why I keep saying that many TG senior traders are super smart, they are the smart 工作介质 of Tgchina's system;
and how about "our" troops? troops are always stupid, anywhere in the world, they are basically 乾電池, and now with "self-aware" robots coming out in army, 乾電池 can't even find jobs, globally.
this is kind of system's "乾電池减法" operation in the white evil created and USA managed global "民主自由金融" game
Tgchina with a 1.5B 乾電池 will likely get hit the hardest, in this new round of system's "减法" operation .
2.
politicians like 乾電池, particularly in EU, because 乾電池 troops have votes.
so, the biggest challenge for TG today is: with a slowing down economy (economically, it is very bad, regardless), how to play Chinese 乾電池 of 1.5B?
3.
atop all these issues, as said, TGchina is highly concentrated and leveraged political system
for a near equilibrium macroscopic system of huge size, system's 梯度越大，系统 储存/compressed 自由能越多, and those 储存/compressed 自由能 will come out, eating 梯度, and maximizing system's entropy, so system becomes more stable, or system jumps into a new form, 相变;
TG has a huge 梯度 now, politically in particular, already bad, and making it worse, fundamentally, TG's "毛林共识"是一种落后的生产关系, period, in the minds of global capital market.
ok, now, Tgchina still has 1.5B 乾電池, but 乾電池 is not really risk free:
"Chinese ordinary people of 1.2 billion=system介质, are they linear or non-linear, after experience so many systematic changes in TG's almost 100 years of history?
any 相变 brewing in this big chunk of 介质?"
4.
if you don't have physicists help you, get some engineers like 军委副主席徐才厚上将, 徐才厚同志1963年考入"哈军工"电子工程系学
劣幣驅逐良幣: tg's leadership, in terms of ALGO power, in a closed, concentrated and leveraged system, or they are all 劣幣 anyway.
that is 1 of many reasons that fundamentally:
"毛林共识"是一种落后的生产关系, it may still work out in mainland china, but it will never fly internationally.
and in today's globalized capital market, smart money and brain will keep flowing out of TGchina, as long as "毛林共识" ALGO still runs as #1 ALGO in tgchina's system.
and as said before, the dilemma is: if you don't run that "毛林共识" ALGO , tgchina may have fallen apart yesterday.
risk is getting bigger and bigger, slowly, how many years it may take for it to blow out? nobody knows.
家园 股市，楼市短期看不到向上的迹象 前经理在经济上失分太多。
把所有的经济大牌一下子打光了
维持了表面的繁荣
如果措施得当的话，tgchina甚至现在可以考虑剪别人羊毛了
当然历史不容假设
热钱进来，要有利益才行，什么地方给他利益？
人民币升值？实体反正是不行了，产能过剩，实体利润率太低了
只能虚拟经济了，但是现在虚拟也不行了
股市，楼市短期看不到向上的迹象
家园 TG is not even @普京 level 1.
economics cancer:
nobody inside TG's top leadership dare to throw out that ALGO, "毛林共识" ALGO; they all have to run that #1 ALGO sometime, one way or another. Hu and Zhao all tried not running that #1 ALGO: they were dead almost right away;
and as long as "毛林共识" ALGO is the #1 ALGO in TGchina's system, capital market of already globalized will never like tgchina's economic system.
as a result, 劣幣驅逐良幣 forever in tgchina's economic system, regardless of TG's market reform propaganda.
it is almost like a cancer is eating up the rest part of the system: the system still fxxks like a normal person, but we all know that hooker has HIV infection. OMG(:).
and the hooker is getting less and less bids.
as long as global heatbath works as a system, the priceless information always exists somewhere, and some smart assholes can figure it out, then arbitrage, short the damned hooker in this case;
once that critical and priceless information is written on the wall everywhere: information fully priced in, big money already made by the very few 先知先觉 traders, with a little bit left over for the rest of the market players, they are huge in numbers but small in brains, very often.
2.
International politics.
TG is not even 普京, in terms of wrestling with Uncle Sam's white wolf team.
"中国邦联 of 新加波 and TW, plus a global 華僑 "特五" of about 80 million=a huge 战略机遇 missed by Tgchina to significantly challenge US led global heatbath or 国际政经意识形态次序, largely created by white."
that historical 战略机遇 may have been missed by Chinese nation forever.
3.
普京 to USA: ok, I tried working with you in your game, and you still fxxked me, putting NATO right at my border;
I am going to fxxk u back as much as I can, and I don't care if we die together: Ukraine, a victory at least politically for 普京.
4.
TG is not even @普京 level, 外戰经验太少;
"毛林共识" ALGO have never flied beyond Chinese mainland border, since day 1.
that is a reflection of Chinese nation's overall weakness: very little ALGO power, if any, with all kinds of reasons as I have posted before.
and Tg's GFW and all kinds of brainwashing propaganda are only going to make it worse.
5.
with all that, even one day Tg can get a bid from Uncle Sam for Sino-US marriage, the bid is not going to be sweet at all: uncle sam will bully you, fool you and trick you into selling TG's載體 with almost a yard sale price.
enjoy it, baby.
家园 【讨论】你这是典型的西方式思维方式 说那么多，论证那么多，你还是只会从经济角度去思考TG CHINA。
其实，事情很简单：TGCHINA 的小团体利益和全国/全民族利益1.3B 干电池相矛盾，干电池注定要被牺牲，以维持TG PARTY的存在。
解决方法也很明显：Option 1.TG 自我改良，速度要快，态度要坚决。这个最不可能，网络调侃：你用剪刀剪自己的小鸡鸡试试？ Option 2. 外部革命，倒逼TG改良，和其他PARTY共享POWER，目前看来，还没有任何一个组织有挑战现状的能力 Option 3. 内部压力达到阀值，系统自我爆破，崩溃，军阀割据再现。
局势复杂，自求多福吧，天佑中华！
家园 某种程度上说也是一个必然 的确如此
战略机遇期已过
如果朱前前总经理再干两届，类似普京的人物主外，现在该哭的是美国
历史不容假设
从某种程度上说也是一个必然
其人才选拔体系决定了这种必然
家园 偏微分方程 system: 边界条件, 路徑依賴 "中国邦联 of 新加波 and TW, plus a global 華僑 "特五" of about 80 million=a huge 战略机遇 missed by Tgchina to significantly challenge US led global heatbath or 国际政经意识形态次序, largely created by white."
1.
Uncle Sam:
1) 2001 911, fighting two wars at same time;
2) 2001 internet stock bubble falling apart, new business models are still "no where", global information/ALGO highway still in "day dream"
3) 2008 financial earth quake
omg, sky is falling, if "中国邦联 of 新加波 and TW" hits Uncle Sam from behind.
now looking back, Uncle Sam must feel scared big time
2.
if Tg put together that "中国邦联 of 新加波 and TW plus a global 華僑 "特五" of about 80 million", taking advantage of Uncle Sam's ass falling apart at that time
global 偏微分方程 system: 边界条件, 路徑依賴, would be much favorable to Tgchina, big time;
3.
there have been many similar 战略"边界条件, 路徑依賴" in human history, where history makes a "wild turn": real 政治家 战略家 make 战略 calls at those critical turns, then, those 政治家 and 战略家 would make or change history, leaving a permanent mark in human system of global scale.
otherwise, you are just a 政客, period.
are most US presidents are 政客 anyway?
yes, but uncle sam has a fairly robust system as a back up, in case of 政客 messing up.
atop 2008 US financial crisis: warren buffett said, USA is a good ship overall, we just happened to have a bad 船長 now: buy this down turn with your money, the US system will work its way out, and we will be ok.
there is only one warren buffett, 金融战略家, in this world, so far, period.
4.
as non-linear, dissipative and dynamical as a social system can be, most social system of large scale with a fairly long history: they are overall fairly stable, with some kind of ALGO running at its core.
where is that ALGO/Information?
家园 自己顶缸 美国现在都还刚刚呼哧带喘的从08年的坑里走出来
国内08年，4万亿拉了他一把
人就要把你往坑里踹
呵呵，自己顶缸了
- 复 自己顶缸
家园 希望楼主多发言啊，你的东西信息量大。 楼主在金融前线，对国家经济状态，还是比较了解的。
问题是新的货币发行方式，后果是什么？
定向货币宽松，是我等普通人知道的东西，具体会什么后果，真不知道啊。
内需起不来，外需增长有限，不改分配机制，会出大乱子的，所以现在政府的廉洁配合打贪，只是稍微调整分配的模式而已。
但是大力发展混合制，让我疑惑了，真正的合法大贪将在混合制产生，呵呵
家园 我不是一个金融行业从业者 坦率地说我不是一个金融行业从业者，一个码农
我只是一个在股市中游荡了几年的人
但是我自认为金融知识比有些金融专业毕业的人不差
有一任女友某国内排名前五学校金融学专业毕业的研究生，我感觉她的专业知识有欠缺，（我这几年看得经济学方面的书也有30-50本了，我觉得她的量远到不了）
其实兴趣是驱动人学习的最好动力
新的货币发行方式，后果是什么？这句话真是问道点子上了
其实也得看，量的多少
量大，量小区别很大
量大的话，你看看1994年之前人民币汇率的情况，利率情况
你就明白了
- 复 自己顶缸
家园 Tg leaders ALGO: "毛林共识"only and that is pretty much all they know, almost;
1.
since TG leadership=the smartest of Chinese society, like any other political elite groups in china's 5k years of history.
it has become kind of a system issue: if you are smart, then you would be in TG leadership already; if you are "not smart", then why I should even bother to listen to you anyway?
basically, the way Chinese political elite manages the Chinese society of past 5k years=no living environment even ever possible for any other elite(s) of Chinese society to emerge and grow, except for political elite themselves only, 人才生态危机 kind of.
the Chinese society is basically relying on its political elite as its only brain, no backup, no balance, omg(:), what kind of risk here we are talking about?
atop that "single engine" issue, you have also got problem of 劣幣驅逐良幣: many Chinese brains go overseas, like those "两弹一星"二代 ;
why? 紅二代 already forgot about those "两弹一星"二代: why should I even bother with them? do we have tons of 科学院士 already?
2.
good part of 同一首歌
Chinese=最先进的语言, TG 执行力=world #1
everything is beautiful
then go back to step 1
TG leadership=the smartest of Chinese society
家园 洋为中用: sell TG's載體 to USA 1.
the so-called sino-US marriage.
I think chairman X is cleaning up and consolidating TG, and when times comes, starts negotiating with Uncle Sam;
2.
Uncle Sam: if you are falling apart anyway, why do I bother to make an offer now to whatever you try selling to me? I may just wait for a yard sale when your house falls apart.
3.
next couple of years: the game will be more interesting
US: china hater Hillary becomes president
Tgchina: 1纵李天佑, how long he can hang on there?
X's 1纵李天佑=1)民間还有钱, 2) 中央还有钱 [ 晓兵 ] 于:2014-07-04 16:47:02 复:4021389
1. "good" part
民間还有钱: Chinese 1.3 billion troops, most of them still have huge equities in their houses, and all kinds of savings for their children,etc;
"民心可用", with a lot of 蓝天大海 brainwashing;
中央还有钱: TG's 中央 actual budget/tax revenues are much much more than reported in paper, 罚款 and other tricks of all kinds of past many years
and 反腐败 to stop some bleeding of systems;
TG should be ok for a couple of more years at least, financially, my guess.
4.
fundamentally, TG's載體 of 1.5B people is still a piece of fxxking sweet candy, now with EU and JPY in economic zero growth forever;
both Tg and Uncle Sam know that, so more likely, a deal will work out eventually.
for now, X has to run TG's #1 ALGO "毛林共识" hard, as hard and as long as possible;
if uncle sam sees Tg is losing control of mainland china, Uncle Sam is not going to come to talk to you, he will fxxk you from behind, with help of JPY in particular.
not an easy game for Tgchina to play, now with Hilary coming into office in two years.